Chargers offensevsColts defense

The Colts won 38–24; their low point was 44% at Q1 15:00. The Chargers had been 56% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q1 5:26: J.Taylor right guard to IND 39 for no gain (T.Jefferson; J.Caldwell). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the… (50% → 56%). The biggest single swing came at Q2 15:00, 12 points for the Colts.

The plays that swung it

1. 1Q2 15:00INDD.Jones pass short right to M.Pittman for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.60% → 72%+12
2. 2Q2 11:51INDD.Jones pass deep left to A.Pierce to LAC 25 for 48 yards (T.Jefferson).67% → 79%+12
3. 3Q1 9:28LACJ.Herbert pass incomplete deep left to Q.Johnston. PENALTY on IND-M.Blackmon, Defensive Pass Interference, 25 yards, enforced at LAC 46 - No Play.40% → 48%+8
4. 4Q2 6:48INDJ.Herbert pass short right intended for O.Gadsden INTERCEPTED by G.Stewart at IND 34. G.Stewart to IND 37 for 3 yards (J.Herbert; A.Deculus).77% → 85%+8
5. 5Q2 2:00INDJ.Herbert pass short right intended for Q.Johnston INTERCEPTED by N.Cross at IND -5. Touchback.78% → 85%+7
6. ★Q1 5:26INDJ.Taylor right guard to IND 39 for no gain (T.Jefferson; J.Caldwell). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the…turning point50% → 56%+6

Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.