DOWN X DOWN › week 8 › Dolphins at Falcons

Season over · final

2025

2025 season · final Every snap of the 2025 season, kept as it ended.Back to 2026 →

Week 8 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Falcons offensevsDolphins defense

Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Falcons, 17 for Dolphins. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.

MIA offense ATL offense

How it played out · win probability, snap by snapFinal · MIA 34 · ATL 10

The Dolphins won 34–10 from as low as 15% (Q1 13:36, tied 0⁠–⁠0). The Falcons had been 77% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q2 4:54: K.Cousins pass incomplete deep left to D.Mooney (49% → 53%). The biggest single swing came at Q3 10:31, 12 points for the Dolphins.

At kickoffATL 77%ATL by 7 on the line

MIA low point15%Q1 13:36 · tied 0⁠–⁠0

Swings past 50%3times the favorite changed

Biggest swing12 ptsMIA · Q3 10:31

ATL wins50%MIA wins

12345Turning pointMIA low 15%

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The plays that swung it

1Q3 10:31ATLB.Robinson left end to MIA 16 for 3 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by MIA-T.Dodson at MIA 10. T.Dodson to MIA 16 for 6 yards (J.Matthews; M.Bergeron).…69% → 80%+12 MIA
2Q1 0:27ATLK.Cousins pass short left to T.Allgeier to MIA 34 for 4 yards (M.Fitzpatrick).55% → 63%+8 ATL
3Q1 14:05MIAT.Tagovailoa sacked at MIA 27 for -8 yards (D.Alford).78% → 85%+7 ATL
4Q2 10:40MIAJ.Bailey punts 49 yards to ATL 8, fair catch by J.Agnew. PENALTY on ATL-F.Franks, Unnecessary Roughness, 4 yards, enforced at ATL 8.37% → 44%+7 MIA
5Q1 13:36MIAJ.Bailey punts 52 yards to ATL 21 J.Agnew to ATL 32 for 11 yards (C.Goode; H.Rucci).15% → 21%+7 MIA
★Q2 4:54ATLK.Cousins pass incomplete deep left to D.Mooney.turning point49% → 53%+3 MIA

Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.

Box score · every offensive player who touched the ballWeek 8

T.Tagovailoa led the Dolphins at +9.6 EPA (20 of 26 for 205). C.Washington led the Falcons at +1.9 EPA (1 catches for 25).

Dolphins

Passing	C/A	Yds	TD	INT	Sk	EPA
T.Tagovailoa90%	20/26	205	4		1	+9.6
Z.Wilson10%	1/1	0				-3.4

Rushing	Car	Share	Yds	EPA
D.Achane67%	18	49%	67	-0.7
O.II30%	10	27%	46	+5.2
J.Wright16%	9	24%	28	-1.5

Receiving	Tgt	Share	Rec	Yds	TD	EPA
D.Achane67%	7	26%	5	24	1	-0.8
J.Waddle78%	6	22%	5	99	1	+8.0
M.Washington62%	5	19%	4	36	1	+2.4
N.Westbrook-Ikhine65%	3	11%	1	18		-0.2
T.Conner45%	2	7%	2	6		-0.2
C.Jr.32%	1	4%	1	2		-0.5
A.Ingold38%	1	4%	1	0		-0.4
J.Wright16%	1	4%	1	0		-3.4
O.II30%	1	4%	1	20	1	+3.4

Defense J.Brooks 1 sack · Kicking R.Patterson 2/2 FG (long 36)

Falcons

Passing	C/A	Yds	TD	INT	Sk	EPA
K.Cousins100%	21/31	173			1	-5.9

Rushing	Car	Share	Yds	TD	EPA
B.Robinson60%	9	53%	25		-7.9
T.Allgeier40%	4	24%	4	1	-1.8
K.Cousins100%	2	12%	2		+0.1
N.Carter	2	12%	14		-0.9

Receiving	Tgt	Share	Rec	Yds	EPA
K.Pitts92%	9	30%	9	59	-4.6
K.Hodge66%	8	27%	3	31	-2.1
D.Mooney90%	4	13%	1	11	-0.9
D.Sills90%	3	10%	2	14	-1.1
B.Robinson60%	3	10%	3	23	+1.1
T.Allgeier40%	2	7%	2	10	+3.1
C.Washington8%	1	3%	1	25	+1.9

Defense D.Alford 1 sack · Kicking J.Romo 1/1 FG (long 45)

Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.

Keys to the game · from the season numbers, not this game alone4 reads

Biggest edge

Backs catch passes

Dolphins give up 37 yards a game to running backs (25th), against a league average of 32. Falcons' running backs produce 54 (2nd).

Opportunity

Deep middle is open

Dolphins are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.54 EPA per attempt. Falcons send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.

Watch out

Wideouts get blanketed

Dolphins give up 127 yards a game to wide receivers (9th), against a league average of 140. Falcons' wide receivers produce 107 (28th).

Wash

EPA per play

Call this one even. Falcons average -0.02 EPA per play (23rd). Dolphins allow +0.09 (26th). League average is +0.01.

The series · Dolphins and Falcons since 1999, and this season's records7 meetings

The Dolphins lead the series 4–3 since 1999 (they first met in 2001). This game is the latest meeting.

Dolphins at home2–2the Dolphins' record

In Atlanta2–1the Dolphins' record

Most pointsDolphins 34 · Falcons 302025 · 2021

Biggest winDolphins by 24 · Falcons by 122025 · 2009

The last 5

2025 · Wk 8	MIA 34 at ATL 10
2021 · Wk 7	ATL 30 at MIA 28
2017 · Wk 6	MIA 20 at ATL 17
2013 · Wk 3	ATL 23 at MIA 27
2009 · Wk 1	MIA 7 at ATL 19

2025 records

	Dolphins	Falcons
Overall	7–10	8–9
Division	3–3	3–3
Conference	3–9	7–5
Other conference	4–1	1–4
Home	5–4	4–4
Away	2–6	4–5
Last 5	WLLWL	LWWWW
Streak	Lost 1	Won 4
Points a game	20.4 – 24.9	20.8 – 23.6

Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Dolphins' side. Records are this regular season.

Head to head · ATL offense against MIA defense

Stat	ATL off	MIA def allows	NFL avg
Overall
EPA per play	-0.02#23	+0.09#26	+0.01
Success rate	44%#16	48%#29	44%
Yards per play	5.5#13	5.9#26	5.4
Explosive play rate	10%#14	11%#25	10%
Passing
Pass EPA per dropback	-0.01#20	+0.13#26	+0.01
Sack rate	5%#5	7%#13	7%
Running
Run EPA per carry	-0.06#20	-0.03#20	-0.05
Yards per carry	4.6#7	4.6#25	4.3
Money downs
3rd down conversion	34%#30	41%#17	40%
Red zone TD rate	61%#10	65%#26	59%
Targets by position
WR yards per game	107#28	127#9	140
TE yards per game	57#11	66#29	53
TE targets per game	7.5#14	8.2#25	7.3
RB receiving yards per game	54#2	37#25	32

Where the ball goes · EPA per throwDeep is 15+ air yds

Falcons: EPA per throw

Left

Middle

Right

Deep

+0.339% of throws

+0.153% of throws

-0.078% of throws

Short

+0.0435% of throws

+0.1014% of throws

+0.0931% of throws

Dolphins: EPA allowed per throw

Left

Middle

Right

Deep

+0.1842 throws

+0.5411 throws

+0.4640 throws