2025
Week 9 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Paycor Stadium
vs
Bengals offensevsBears defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Bengals, 19 for Bears. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Bears won 47–42; their low point was 36% at Q1 14:38. The game turned for good at Q4 0:25: C.Williams pass deep middle to C.Loveland for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN (42% → 97%).
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 0:25CHIC.Williams pass deep middle to C.Loveland for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN.turning point42% → 97%
- 2Q1 15:00CINC.Santos kicks 63 yards from CHI 35 to CIN 2. C.Jones for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN.40% → 60%
- 3Q2 1:18CINJ.Flacco pass deep left to T.Higgins for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.32% → 50%
- 4Q4 15:00CHIJ.Flacco sacked at CIN 38 for -10 yards (A.Booker). FUMBLES (A.Booker) [A.Booker], RECOVERED by CHI-G.Dexter at CIN 38.67% → 83%
- 5Q4 0:58CINJ.Flacco pass short middle to A.Iosivas for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.30% → 44%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
C.Williams led the Bears at +21.4 EPA (20 of 34 for 280). J.Flacco led the Bengals at +16.7 EPA (31 of 47 for 470).
Bears
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Williams100% | 20/34 | 280 | 3 | 2 | +14.0 | |
| D.Moore85% | 1/1 | 2 | 1 | +3.9 | ||
| C.Kmet26% | 0/1 | 0 | -0.5 | |||
| T.Bagent1% | 1/1 | 20 | +1.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Monangai74% | 26 | 70% | 176 | +9.0 | |
| B.Brown18% | 5 | 14% | 37 | 1 | +2.6 |
| C.Williams100% | 5 | 14% | 53 | +2.1 | |
| D.Moore85% | 1 | 3% | 17 | 1 | +2.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O.Zaccheaus64% | 8 | 24% | 6 | 58 | 1 | +5.1 |
| C.Loveland81% | 7 | 21% | 6 | 118 | 2 | +10.5 |
| D.Moore85% | 6 | 18% | 4 | 72 | +3.5 | |
| K.Monangai74% | 5 | 15% | 3 | 22 | 0.0 | |
| R.Odunze100% | 3 | 9% | 0 | 0 | -1.8 | |
| C.Kmet26% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 10 | +0.8 | |
| C.Williams100% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 22 | 1 | +5.3 |
| B.Brown18% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.2 |
Defense T.Edmunds 1 INT, N.Wright 1 INT, C.Gardner-Johnson 1 sack, M.Sweat 1 sack · Kicking C.Santos 2/3 FG (long 36)
Bengals
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Flacco100% | 31/47 | 470 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +16.7 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Brown96% | 11 | 73% | 37 | -1.2 | |
| J.Flacco100% | 1 | 7% | -1 | 0.0 | |
| S.Perine1% | 1 | 7% | 5 | +0.1 | |
| A.Iosivas84% | 1 | 7% | 4 | -0.2 | |
| T.Brooks4% | 1 | 7% | 1 | -0.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Brown96% | 14 | 31% | 8 | 75 | -2.6 | |
| T.Higgins82% | 9 | 20% | 7 | 121 | 2 | +11.6 |
| J.Chase99% | 8 | 18% | 6 | 111 | +5.6 | |
| A.Iosivas84% | 7 | 16% | 5 | 66 | 1 | +5.6 |
| N.Fant46% | 3 | 7% | 2 | 28 | 1 | +2.7 |
| T.Hudson16% | 2 | 4% | 2 | 42 | +3.6 | |
| M.Tinsley25% | 2 | 4% | 1 | 27 | +2.0 |
Defense B.Hill 1 sack, J.Ossai 1 sack · Kicking E.McPherson 2/3 FG (long 41)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Wideouts feast
Bears give up 163 yards a game to wide receivers (26th), against a league average of 140. Bengals' wide receivers produce 167 (5th).
Deep middle is open
Bears are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.93 EPA per attempt. Bengals send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Checkdowns go nowhere
Bears give up 27 yards a game to running backs (6th), against a league average of 32. Bengals' running backs produce 30 (15th).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Bengals average -0.01 EPA per play (20th). Bears allow +0.03 (21st). League average is +0.01.
The Bears lead the series 5–2 since 1999 (they first met in 2001). They have won the last 4. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 9 | CHI 47 at CIN 42 |
| 2021 · Wk 2 | CIN 17 at CHI 20 |
| 2017 · Wk 14 | CHI 33 at CIN 7 |
| 2013 · Wk 1 | CIN 21 at CHI 24 |
| 2009 · Wk 7 | CHI 10 at CIN 45 |
2025 records
| Bears | Bengals | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11–6 | 6–11 |
| Division | 2–4 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 7–5 | 5–7 |
| Other conference | 4–1 | 1–4 |
| Home | 6–2 | 3–6 |
| Away | 5–4 | 3–5 |
| Last 5 | LWWLL | LLWWL |
| Streak | Lost 2 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 25.9 – 24.4 | 24.4 – 28.9 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Bears' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | CIN off | Favors CIN · Favors CHI | CHI def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.01#20 | +0.03#21 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 46%#10 | 46%#25 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.4#16 | 5.9#27 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 8%#27 | 12%#29 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.03#23 | +0.05#19 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#10 | 6%#23 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.02#5 | -0.03#19 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.3#13 | 4.7#29 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 45%#4 | 41%#15 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 73%#1 | 59%#17 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 167#5 | 163#26 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 52#15 | 52#14 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.6#12 | 7.4#18 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 30#15 | 27#6 | 32 | |
Bengals: EPA per throw
Bears: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.