2026
Week 1 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · U.S. Bank Stadium
vs
Vikings offensevsPackers defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 7 games for Vikings, 8 for Packers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Vikings won 39–22 from as low as 10% (Q3 5:59, down 19–10). The game turned for good at Q4 6:49: C.Wentz pass short middle intended for J.Addison INTERCEPTED by E.Williams [J.Hargrave] at GB -4. E.Williams to GB 13 for 17 yards (A.Jones).… (48% → 60%). The biggest single swing came at Q1 7:54, 18 points for the Packers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 7:54GBJ.Love pass deep middle to C.Watson for 81 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN-I.Rodgers was injured during the play.58% → 76%
- 2Q4 5:01MINJ.Love sacked at GB 11 for -12 yards (sack split by A.Van Ginkel and B.Cashman). FUMBLES (A.Van Ginkel) [B.Cashman], RECOVERED by MIN-A.Van Ginkel…77% → 93%
- 3Q4 13:17MINJ.Love right guard to MIN 17 for no gain (D.Orange). (Virtual Measurement).19% → 32%
- 4Q4 9:09MINJ.Mason left end to GB 11 for 28 yards (E.Williams).40% → 52%
- 5Q4 15:00GBJ.Love pass deep middle to M.Golden to MIN 26 for 42 yards (J.Metellus).71% → 83%
- ★Q4 6:49MINC.Wentz pass short middle intended for J.Addison INTERCEPTED by E.Williams [J.Hargrave] at GB -4. E.Williams to GB 13 for 17 yards (A.Jones).…turning point48% → 60%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
C.Watson led the Packers at +6.9 EPA (6 catches for 147). J.Jefferson led the Vikings at +12.5 EPA (8 catches for 92).
Packers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Love100% | 21/42 | 387 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -2.7 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Lloyd44% | 13 | 62% | 37 | -3.8 | |
| C.Brooks56% | 7 | 33% | 29 | -0.8 | |
| J.Love100% | 1 | 5% | 0 | -4.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Golden82% | 12 | 30% | 6 | 95 | +0.8 | |
| C.Watson76% | 8 | 20% | 6 | 147 | 2 | +6.9 |
| J.Reed57% | 7 | 18% | 3 | 20 | -1.2 | |
| T.Kraft66% | 6 | 15% | 3 | 65 | +1.8 | |
| J.Smith47% | 3 | 8% | 2 | 50 | +4.0 | |
| B.Melton12% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 10 | +1.0 | |
| S.Moore6% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -3.7 | |
| C.Brooks56% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.9 | |
| M.Lloyd44% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 |
Defense K.Nixon 0.5 sacks and 1 INT, L.Ness 1 sack, E.Cooper 1 sack, J.Ford 0.5 sacks · Kicking T.Smack 3/3 FG (long 59)
Vikings
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Wentz83% | 12/19 | 133 | 3 | 3 | +5.0 | |
| K.Murray17% | 3/5 | 18 | 1 | -4.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Mason45% | 15 | 44% | 59 | 1 | -3.0 |
| A.Jones46% | 12 | 35% | 40 | 1 | -1.1 |
| C.Wentz83% | 5 | 15% | -1 | +0.1 | |
| K.Murray17% | 2 | 6% | 9 | +2.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Jefferson92% | 9 | 39% | 8 | 92 | 2 | +12.5 |
| T.Hockenson66% | 5 | 22% | 4 | 36 | 1 | +3.2 |
| J.Oliver65% | 4 | 17% | 2 | 22 | 0.0 | |
| J.Addison83% | 2 | 9% | 0 | 0 | -3.3 | |
| A.Jones46% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.9 | |
| J.Jennings48% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -4.1 | |
| D.Dallas9% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 1 | -1.6 |
Defense A.Ginkel 1.5 sacks, J.Pierre 1 INT, L.Rodriguez 1 sack, D.Turner 1 sack · Kicking W.Reichard 1/1 FG (long 38)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Third downs favor Vikings
Vikings convert 39% of third downs (21st). Packers allow 44% (23rd).
Deep left is open
Packers are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.61 EPA per attempt. Vikings send 11% of their throws there.
Passing lanes are closed
Vikings gain -0.08 EPA per dropback (24th). Packers allow -0.06 (5th).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Vikings create explosive plays on 9% of snaps (16th). Packers give them up at 6% (3rd).
The Packers lead the series 31–24–2 since 1999. The Vikings have won the last 2. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 1 | GB 22 at MIN 39 |
| 2025 · Wk 18 | GB 3 at MIN 16 |
| 2025 · Wk 12 | MIN 6 at GB 23 |
| 2024 · Wk 17 | GB 25 at MIN 27 |
| 2024 · Wk 4 | MIN 31 at GB 29 |
2026 records
| Packers | Vikings | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5–3 | 6–1 |
| Division | 1–2 | 2–1 |
| Conference | 4–3 | 4–1 |
| Other conference | 1–0 | 2–0 |
| Home | 3–1 | 3–0 |
| Away | 2–2 | 3–1 |
| Last 5 | WWWLW | WWWWL |
| Streak | Won 1 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 21.4 – 20.5 | 20.0 – 13.3 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Packers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | MIN off | Favors MIN · Favors GB | GB def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.10#28 | -0.07#7 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 37%#31 | 44%#15 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 4.9#24 | 4.8#3 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#16 | 6%#3 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.08#24 | -0.06#5 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 10%#29 | 7%#13 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.21#28 | -0.10#11 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.8#21 | 3.9#14 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 39%#21 | 44%#23 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 59%#16 | 60%#13 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 105#30 | 152#22 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 61#13 | 35#3 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.6#14 | 6.1#4 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 19#28 | 34#19 | 32 | |
Vikings: EPA per throw
Packers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.