2026
Week 2 · Thursday 8:15 PM ET · Highmark Stadium
vs
Bills offensevsLions defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 7 games for Bills, 7 for Lions. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Bills won 41–31 and were favored the whole way, never below 64%. The biggest single swing came at Q1 3:49, 6 points for the Bills.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 3:49BUFJ.Allen pass deep middle to J.Palmer for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN [S.Gill-Howard].86% → 91%
- 2Q1 13:48BUFJ.Allen sacked at BUF 32 for -4 yards (A.Hutchinson). FUMBLES (A.Hutchinson) [A.Hutchinson], recovered by BUF-S.Brown at BUF 31.31% → 36%
- 3Q1 12:54BUFJ.Allen scrambles right end ran ob at BUF 44 for 13 yards (D.White). PENALTY on DET-D.Reed, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 44.64% → 69%
- 4Q1 11:48BUFJ.Allen scrambles right tackle ran ob at DET 38 for 12 yards (D.Barnes).67% → 72%
- 5Q1 9:42BUFJ.Allen scrambles left tackle to DET 1 for 14 yards (R.Ya-Sin; D.Reed).77% → 81%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Goff led the Lions at +16.4 EPA (26 of 38 for 327). J.Allen led the Bills at +20.8 EPA (20 of 31 for 248).
Lions
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Goff100% | 26/38 | 327 | 4 | 4 | +18.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Gibbs83% | 16 | 80% | 52 | -2.5 | |
| J.Goff100% | 3 | 15% | 7 | -2.2 | |
| S.Vaki17% | 1 | 5% | 7 | +0.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Brown95% | 13 | 34% | 9 | 142 | 2 | +10.7 |
| J.Gibbs83% | 8 | 21% | 6 | 61 | 1 | +6.0 |
| S.LaPorta98% | 7 | 18% | 6 | 52 | 1 | +5.7 |
| I.TeSlaa75% | 5 | 13% | 2 | 26 | +1.8 | |
| J.Williams97% | 4 | 11% | 2 | 33 | +1.5 | |
| S.Vaki17% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 13 | +0.6 |
Defense D.Barnes 1 sack, A.Hutchinson 1 sack · Kicking J.Bates 1/1 FG, 4/4 XP, 7 pts
Bills
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Allen100% | 20/31 | 248 | 3 | 2 | +15.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Cook74% | 21 | 58% | 135 | 1 | +5.0 |
| J.Allen100% | 14 | 39% | 69 | 2 | +5.7 |
| D.Moore31% | 1 | 3% | -1 | -0.9 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Kincaid66% | 8 | 29% | 7 | 95 | 1 | +7.2 |
| K.Shakir49% | 6 | 21% | 3 | 38 | +0.6 | |
| K.Coleman74% | 6 | 21% | 6 | 63 | +5.9 | |
| J.Palmer38% | 3 | 11% | 1 | 43 | 1 | +4.8 |
| J.Cook74% | 3 | 11% | 1 | 4 | -1.2 | |
| D.Knox76% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 5 | 1 | +1.8 |
Defense G.Rousseau 2 sacks, B.Chubb 1.5 sacks, M.Hoecht 0.5 sacks · Kicking T.Bass 5/6 XP, 5 pts
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Throw it
Bills gain +0.23 EPA per dropback (4th). Lions allow +0.18 (29th).
Deep right is open
Lions are worst against deep right throws, allowing +1.32 EPA per attempt. Bills send 5% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Pressure problem
Bills take a sack on 6% of dropbacks (13th). Lions get home on 8% (7th). League average is 7%.
Yards per play
Call this one even. Bills gain 6.5 yards per play (2nd). Lions give up 5.6 (21st), with the league at 5.4.
The Bills lead the series 7–1 since 1999 (they first met in 2002). They have won the last 6. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 2 | DET 31 at BUF 41 |
| 2024 · Wk 15 | BUF 48 at DET 42 |
| 2022 · Wk 12 | BUF 28 at DET 25 |
| 2018 · Wk 15 | DET 13 at BUF 14 |
| 2014 · Wk 5 | BUF 17 at DET 14 |
2026 records
| Lions | Bills | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5–2 | 6–1 |
| Division | 2–0 | 0–1 |
| Conference | 4–1 | 4–1 |
| Other conference | 1–1 | 2–0 |
| Home | 4–0 | 3–1 |
| Away | 1–2 | 3–0 |
| Last 5 | WLWWW | WLWWW |
| Streak | Won 3 | Won 3 |
| Points a game | 29.0 – 25.7 | 33.3 – 25.9 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Lions' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | BUF off | Favors BUF · Favors DET | DET def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.18#1 | +0.11#30 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 49%#4 | 45%#25 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.5#2 | 5.6#21 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 15%#1 | 11%#30 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.23#4 | +0.18#29 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 6%#13 | 8%#7 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.02#6 | -0.09#13 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.5#7 | 3.9#16 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 47%#6 | 46%#27 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 72%#3 | 74%#28 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 145#17 | 177#27 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 64#9 | 98#32 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.1#19 | 11.4#32 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 46#7 | 23#8 | 32 | |
Bills: EPA per throw
Lions: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.