2026
Week 4 · Sunday 4:05 PM ET · U.S. Bank Stadium
vs
Vikings offensevsDolphins defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 7 games for Vikings, 7 for Dolphins. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Vikings won 15–10 and were favored the whole way, never below 73%. The biggest single swing came at Q3 0:15, 9 points for the Dolphins.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q3 0:15MIAO.Gordon left guard for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.12% → 21%
- 2Q2 5:50MIAM.Willis pass incomplete short left to J.Wright. Minnesota challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. M.Willis sacked at…83% → 89%
- 3Q3 14:08MIAO.Gordon left tackle pushed ob at MIN 11 for 53 yards (B.Murphy; H.Smith).9% → 15%
- 4Q4 10:08MINA.Jones up the middle to MIA 27 for 3 yards (J.Uche; J.Brooks).81% → 87%
- 5Q4 4:22MINK.Murray pass short middle to J.Addison to MIA 40 for 27 yards (C.Johnson; J.Brents).91% → 95%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
O.II led the Dolphins at +5.3 EPA (9 carries for 100). T.Hockenson led the Vikings at +11.2 EPA (13 catches for 119).
Dolphins
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Willis100% | 9/17 | 85 | 2 | -12.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O.II56% | 9 | 50% | 100 | 1 | +6.6 |
| J.Wright31% | 5 | 28% | 7 | -3.7 | |
| M.Willis100% | 2 | 11% | 11 | +3.0 | |
| M.Washington87% | 2 | 11% | 3 | -1.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Washington87% | 5 | 29% | 5 | 67 | +3.6 | |
| K.Jr.51% | 4 | 24% | 1 | 3 | -3.2 | |
| C.Bell82% | 3 | 18% | 0 | 0 | -3.9 | |
| O.II56% | 2 | 12% | 2 | 0 | -1.4 | |
| W.Kacmarek62% | 2 | 12% | 1 | 15 | +0.5 | |
| J.Tolbert15% | 1 | 6% | 0 | 0 | -0.7 |
Defense Z.Sieler 2 sacks, J.Uche 1 sack, C.Robinson 1 sack · Kicking R.Patterson 1/1 FG, 1/1 XP, 4 pts
Vikings
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Murray100% | 27/37 | 247 | 4 | -0.7 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Jones73% | 20 | 65% | 94 | -0.9 | |
| K.Murray100% | 6 | 19% | 16 | -5.7 | |
| D.Claiborne12% | 3 | 10% | 12 | -0.5 | |
| J.Addison96% | 1 | 3% | -1 | -0.7 | |
| M.Price13% | 1 | 3% | 2 | -0.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Hockenson83% | 13 | 39% | 13 | 119 | +11.2 | |
| A.Jones73% | 8 | 24% | 4 | 34 | -1.3 | |
| J.Addison96% | 6 | 18% | 4 | 52 | +1.1 | |
| M.Price13% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 6 | -1.1 | |
| J.Jennings95% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 8 | -0.1 | |
| D.Dallas15% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 10 | -0.6 | |
| T.Felton59% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 14 | +0.5 | |
| G.Bartholomew22% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 4 | +0.1 |
Defense D.Turner 2 sacks · Kicking W.Reichard 5/5 FG, 15 pts
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Dolphins give up 69 yards a game to tight ends (28th), against a league average of 55. Vikings' tight ends produce 61 (13th).
Deep right is open
Dolphins are worst against deep right throws, allowing +1.34 EPA per attempt. Vikings send 7% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Wideouts get blanketed
Dolphins give up 121 yards a game to wide receivers (4th), against a league average of 147. Vikings' wide receivers produce 105 (30th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Vikings succeed on 37% of plays (31st) against a defense that allows 49% (32nd).
The Vikings lead the series 5–3 since 1999 (they first met in 2000). They have won the last 3. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 4 | MIA 10 at MIN 15 |
| 2022 · Wk 6 | MIN 24 at MIA 16 |
| 2018 · Wk 15 | MIA 17 at MIN 41 |
| 2014 · Wk 16 | MIN 35 at MIA 37 |
| 2010 · Wk 2 | MIA 14 at MIN 10 |
2026 records
| Dolphins | Vikings | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 1–6 | 6–1 |
| Division | 1–1 | 2–1 |
| Conference | 1–4 | 4–1 |
| Other conference | 0–2 | 2–0 |
| Home | 0–3 | 3–0 |
| Away | 1–3 | 3–1 |
| Last 5 | LLLWL | WWWWL |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 16.7 – 25.9 | 20.0 – 13.3 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Dolphins' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | MIN off | Favors MIN · Favors MIA | MIA def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.10#28 | +0.13#32 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 37%#31 | 49%#32 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 4.9#24 | 5.9#27 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#15 | 11%#26 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.08#24 | +0.30#32 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 10%#29 | 4%#28 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.21#28 | -0.07#19 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.8#21 | 4.1#18 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 39%#20 | 54%#32 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 59%#16 | 64%#19 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 105#30 | 121#4 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 61#13 | 69#28 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.6#14 | 7.9#18 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 19#28 | 41#25 | 32 | |
Vikings: EPA per throw
Dolphins: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.