2026
Week 4 · Sunday 8:20 PM ET · Bank of America Stadium
vs
Panthers offensevsLions defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 7 games for Panthers, 7 for Lions. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Panthers won 32–26 from as low as 24% (Q1 13:15, tied 0–0). The Lions had been 68% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q3 6:28: J.Goff pass incomplete short middle to S.LaPorta (D.Brown) (50% → 54%). The biggest single swing came at Q3 7:53, 15 points for the Lions.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q3 7:53DETJ.Goff pass deep left to I.TeSlaa to CAR 12 for 57 yards (A.Evans).39% → 54%
- 2Q2 0:21DETJ.Goff pass deep right to J.Williams to CAR 23 for 49 yards (L.Ransom; A.Evans).51% → 63%
- 3Q3 9:37CARB.Young pass short middle to T.McMillan for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.53% → 64%
- 4Q4 3:16CARB.Young pass deep right to T.McMillan pushed ob at 50 for 18 yards (E.Rakestraw) [D.Moore].78% → 89%
- 5Q2 8:14CARB.Young pass deep right to T.McMillan for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN [D.Wonnum].51% → 60%
- ★Q3 6:28CARJ.Goff pass incomplete short middle to S.LaPorta (D.Brown).turning point50% → 54%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Goff led the Lions at +12.3 EPA (32 of 52 for 412). B.Young led the Panthers at +18.0 EPA (29 of 41 for 329).
Lions
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Goff100% | 32/52 | 412 | 1 | 1 | +12.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Gibbs87% | 15 | 100% | 46 | 1 | -0.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.LaPorta79% | 13 | 25% | 8 | 84 | 1 | +8.9 |
| A.Brown96% | 11 | 22% | 8 | 75 | -2.1 | |
| J.Williams99% | 8 | 16% | 6 | 102 | +7.1 | |
| I.TeSlaa82% | 8 | 16% | 4 | 95 | +1.2 | |
| J.Gibbs87% | 7 | 14% | 4 | 31 | -2.6 | |
| B.Wright35% | 2 | 4% | 1 | 8 | -0.5 | |
| S.Vaki17% | 2 | 4% | 1 | 17 | +1.4 |
Defense D.Wonnum 1 sack, A.McNeill 1 sack, C.Izien 1 sack · Kicking J.Bates 4/4 FG (long 54)
Panthers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Young100% | 29/41 | 329 | 2 | 3 | +20.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Hubbard84% | 20 | 71% | 122 | 2 | +3.6 |
| A.Dillon15% | 5 | 18% | 2 | -4.3 | |
| B.Young100% | 3 | 11% | 3 | -2.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.McMillan89% | 16 | 41% | 14 | 192 | 2 | +16.7 |
| D.Waller53% | 6 | 15% | 3 | 36 | +3.7 | |
| J.III37% | 5 | 13% | 3 | 37 | +5.2 | |
| T.Tremble51% | 4 | 10% | 4 | 12 | -1.1 | |
| B.Tremayne92% | 3 | 8% | 2 | 32 | +1.7 | |
| C.Hubbard84% | 2 | 5% | 1 | 7 | +0.4 | |
| A.Dillon15% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 5 | -0.3 | |
| M.Evans61% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 8 | +0.6 | |
| J.Reed13% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.8 |
Defense P.Umanmielen 1 sack · Kicking R.Fitzgerald 2/2 FG (long 47)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Lions give up 98 yards a game to tight ends (32nd), against a league average of 55. Panthers' tight ends produce 70 (4th).
Deep right is open
Lions are worst against deep right throws, allowing +1.32 EPA per attempt. Panthers send 6% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Pressure problem
Panthers take a sack on 8% of dropbacks (22nd). Lions get home on 8% (7th). League average is 7%.
Success rate
Call this one even. Panthers succeed on 42% of plays (16th) against a defense that allows 45% (25th).
The Panthers lead the series 9–4 since 1999. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 4 | DET 26 at CAR 32 |
| 2023 · Wk 5 | CAR 24 at DET 42 |
| 2022 · Wk 16 | DET 23 at CAR 37 |
| 2020 · Wk 11 | DET 0 at CAR 20 |
| 2018 · Wk 11 | CAR 19 at DET 20 |
2026 records
| Lions | Panthers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5–2 | 3–4 |
| Division | 2–0 | 1–1 |
| Conference | 4–1 | 3–3 |
| Other conference | 1–1 | 0–1 |
| Home | 4–0 | 1–2 |
| Away | 1–2 | 2–2 |
| Last 5 | WLWWW | LWWLL |
| Streak | Won 3 | Lost 2 |
| Points a game | 29.0 – 25.7 | 25.4 – 27.6 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Lions' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | CAR off | Favors CAR · Favors DET | DET def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.04#12 | +0.11#30 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 42%#16 | 45%#25 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.6#12 | 5.6#21 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#18 | 11%#30 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.05#16 | +0.18#29 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 8%#22 | 8%#7 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.04#11 | -0.09#12 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.1#16 | 3.9#16 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 40%#19 | 46%#27 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 67%#12 | 74%#28 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 181#5 | 177#27 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 70#4 | 98#32 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.7#8 | 11.4#32 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 30#18 | 23#8 | 32 | |
Panthers: EPA per throw
Lions: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.