2025
Week 1 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · Lambeau Field
vs
Packers offensevsLions defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 18 games for Packers, 17 for Lions. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Packers won 27–13 and were favored the whole way, never below 52%. The biggest single swing came at Q1 9:31, 9 points for the Packers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 9:31GBJ.Love pass short middle to T.Kraft for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.60% → 68%
- 2Q2 9:27GBJ.Love pass deep middle to R.Doubs to DET 17 for 48 yards (D.Reed; T.Arnold).73% → 82%
- 3Q1 6:05GBJ.Love pass deep middle to J.Reed to DET 23 for 26 yards (A.Robertson).73% → 80%
- 4Q2 1:12GBJ.Goff pass short right intended for A.St. Brown INTERCEPTED by E.Williams at GB 13. E.Williams to GB 13 for no gain (A.St. Brown).83% → 90%
- 5Q1 11:15GBJ.Love pass short left to M.Golden pushed ob at DET 31 for 11 yards (K.Joseph).55% → 61%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
I.TeSlaa led the Lions at +4.3 EPA (1 catches for 13). J.Love led the Packers at +10.0 EPA (16 of 22 for 188).
Lions
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Goff100% | 31/39 | 225 | 1 | 1 | 4 | +1.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Montgomery37% | 11 | 50% | 25 | -2.5 | |
| J.Gibbs66% | 9 | 41% | 19 | -2.7 | |
| J.Goff100% | 1 | 5% | -1 | 0.0 | |
| J.Williams97% | 1 | 5% | 3 | -0.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Gibbs66% | 10 | 26% | 10 | 31 | -1.3 | |
| S.LaPorta91% | 9 | 24% | 6 | 79 | +2.2 | |
| A.Brown94% | 6 | 16% | 4 | 45 | +0.6 | |
| J.Williams97% | 5 | 13% | 4 | 23 | +3.5 | |
| D.Montgomery37% | 4 | 11% | 4 | 18 | +0.0 | |
| K.Raymond66% | 3 | 8% | 2 | 16 | +0.9 | |
| I.TeSlaa4% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 13 | 1 | +4.3 |
Defense no sacks or interceptions · Kicking J.Bates 2/2 FG (long 30)
Packers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Love100% | 16/22 | 188 | 2 | +10.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Jacobs88% | 19 | 76% | 66 | 1 | -0.4 |
| J.Love100% | 3 | 12% | 4 | -0.1 | |
| C.Brooks19% | 1 | 4% | 1 | -0.7 | |
| E.Wilson4% | 1 | 4% | 4 | -0.6 | |
| T.Kraft92% | 1 | 4% | 3 | -0.7 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Reed38% | 5 | 23% | 3 | 45 | 1 | +2.7 |
| R.Doubs71% | 4 | 18% | 2 | 68 | +3.0 | |
| T.Kraft92% | 4 | 18% | 2 | 16 | 1 | +1.0 |
| D.Wicks46% | 2 | 9% | 2 | 30 | +3.4 | |
| M.Golden48% | 2 | 9% | 2 | 16 | +2.1 | |
| J.Jacobs88% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 4 | -0.2 | |
| J.FitzPatrick31% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 2 | -0.6 | |
| C.Brooks19% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 2 | -0.5 | |
| L.Musgrave35% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 4 | -0.3 | |
| S.Williams6% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 1 | -0.4 |
Defense R.Gary 1.5 sacks, E.Williams 1 INT, M.Parsons 1 sack, D.Wyatt 1 sack · Kicking B.McManus 2/2 FG (long 38)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Throw it
Packers gain +0.24 EPA per dropback (1st). Lions allow -0.01 (14th).
Deep middle is open
Lions are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.29 EPA per attempt. Packers send 6% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Checkdowns go nowhere
Lions give up 25 yards a game to running backs (5th), against a league average of 32. Packers' running backs produce 27 (20th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Packers succeed on 47% of plays (4th) against a defense that allows 42% (9th).
The Packers lead the series 36–19 since 1999. Oct 25, 2026, at Ford Field: the Lions won 20–17. Jared Goff started at quarterback for the Lions and Jordan Love for the Packers; Dan Campbell and Matt LaFleur coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 7 | GB 17 at DET 20 |
| 2025 · Wk 13 | GB 31 at DET 24 |
| 2025 · Wk 1 | DET 13 at GB 27 |
| 2024 · Wk 14 | GB 31 at DET 34 |
| 2024 · Wk 9 | DET 24 at GB 14 |
2025 records
| Lions | Packers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9–8 | 9–7–1 |
| Division | 2–4 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 6–6 | 7–4–1 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 2–3 |
| Home | 5–3 | 5–3 |
| Away | 4–5 | 4–4–1 |
| Last 5 | WLLLW | WLLLL |
| Streak | Won 1 | Lost 4 |
| Points a game | 28.3 – 24.3 | 23.0 – 21.2 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Lions' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | GB off | Favors GB · Favors DET | DET def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.12#3 | -0.01#14 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 47%#4 | 42%#9 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.7#9 | 5.5#18 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 12%#3 | 11%#23 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.24#1 | -0.01#14 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#8 | 8%#8 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.07#22 | -0.04#18 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.1#21 | 4.4#24 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 48%#2 | 37%#9 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 60%#12 | 58%#15 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 150#13 | 156#24 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 48#22 | 55#19 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.6#28 | 7.7#22 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 27#20 | 25#5 | 32 | |
Packers: EPA per throw
Lions: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.