2025
Week 1 · Sunday 8:20 PM ET · New Era Field
vs
Bills offensevsRavens defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 19 games for Bills, 17 for Ravens. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Bills won 41–40 from as low as 1% (Q4 7:56, down 40–25). The Ravens had been 54% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 0:46: J.Allen pass short middle to K.Coleman to BAL 9 for 25 yards (J.Alexander) (46% → 61%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 0:03, 49 points for the Bills.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 0:03BUFM.Prater 32 yard field goal is GOOD51% → 100%
- 2Q4 0:53BUFJ.Allen pass deep left to J.Palmer ran ob at BAL 34 for 32 yards (K.Hamilton).21% → 46%
- 3Q4 0:46BUFJ.Allen pass short middle to K.Coleman to BAL 9 for 25 yards (J.Alexander).turning point46% → 61%
- 4Q2 13:41BALD.Henry right tackle for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.58% → 69%
- 5Q4 0:33BALJ.Allen kneels to BAL 14 for -2 yards.38% → 49%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
L.Jackson led the Ravens at +18.5 EPA (14 of 19 for 209). J.Allen led the Bills at +16.3 EPA (33 of 46 for 394).
Ravens
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L.Jackson100% | 14/19 | 209 | 2 | 2 | +8.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Henry57% | 18 | 62% | 169 | 2 | +3.5 |
| L.Jackson100% | 6 | 21% | 70 | 1 | +9.7 |
| J.Hill45% | 2 | 7% | -14 | -2.6 | |
| Z.Flowers90% | 2 | 7% | 8 | 0.0 | |
| R.Ali2% | 1 | 3% | 5 | 0.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z.Flowers90% | 9 | 47% | 7 | 143 | 1 | +9.8 |
| R.Bateman73% | 4 | 21% | 2 | 10 | -1.8 | |
| D.Hopkins35% | 2 | 11% | 2 | 35 | 1 | +2.6 |
| J.Hill45% | 2 | 11% | 1 | 3 | +0.4 | |
| D.Henry57% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 13 | +0.9 | |
| M.Andrews75% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 5 | +0.2 |
Defense N.Madubuike 1 sack · Kicking T.Loop 2/2 FG (long 52)
Bills
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Allen100% | 33/46 | 394 | 2 | 1 | +14.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Allen100% | 14 | 45% | 30 | 2 | +2.0 |
| J.Cook56% | 13 | 42% | 44 | 1 | -2.1 |
| T.Johnson33% | 2 | 6% | 24 | +1.9 | |
| E.Moore14% | 1 | 3% | 8 | +0.5 | |
| R.Davis12% | 1 | 3% | 2 | -0.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Coleman88% | 11 | 24% | 8 | 112 | 1 | +8.0 |
| J.Palmer62% | 9 | 20% | 5 | 61 | +0.9 | |
| K.Shakir71% | 9 | 20% | 6 | 64 | 0.0 | |
| J.Cook56% | 5 | 11% | 5 | 58 | +2.9 | |
| D.Kincaid51% | 4 | 9% | 4 | 48 | 1 | +2.9 |
| T.Johnson33% | 2 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -1.1 | |
| D.Knox56% | 2 | 4% | 2 | 20 | +1.2 | |
| E.Moore14% | 1 | 2% | 1 | 3 | -1.0 | |
| R.Davis12% | 1 | 2% | 1 | -1 | -0.8 | |
| J.Hawes19% | 1 | 2% | 1 | 29 | +2.8 |
Defense M.Milano 1 sack, E.Oliver 1 sack · Kicking M.Prater 3/3 FG (long 43)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Backs catch passes
Ravens give up 43 yards a game to running backs (30th), against a league average of 32. Bills' running backs produce 36 (11th).
Deep middle is open
Ravens are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.82 EPA per attempt. Bills send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Ravens give up 6.6 targets a game to tight ends (8th), against a league average of 7.3. Bills' tight ends produce 7.4 (16th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Bills succeed on 49% of plays (2nd) against a defense that allows 44% (17th).
The Bills lead the series 8–7 since 1999. They have won the last 3. Nov 1, 2026, at Highmark Stadium: the Bills won 36–10. Josh Allen started at quarterback for the Bills and Lamar Jackson for the Ravens; Sean McDermott and Jesse Minter coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 8 | BAL 10 at BUF 36 |
| 2025 · Wk 1 | BAL 40 at BUF 41 |
| 2024 · Wk 20 · playoffs | BAL 25 at BUF 27 |
| 2024 · Wk 4 | BUF 10 at BAL 35 |
| 2022 · Wk 4 | BUF 23 at BAL 20 |
2025 records
| Ravens | Bills | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8–9 | 12–5 |
| Division | 3–3 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 5–7 | 9–3 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 3–2 |
| Home | 3–6 | 7–2 |
| Away | 5–3 | 5–3 |
| Last 5 | LWLWL | WWWLW |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 24.9 – 23.4 | 28.3 – 21.5 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Ravens' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | BUF off | Favors BUF · Favors BAL | BAL def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.14#2 | +0.03#20 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 49%#2 | 44%#17 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.0#5 | 5.6#22 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 12%#1 | 10%#21 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.17#3 | +0.08#21 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 7%#18 | 5%#31 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.07#1 | -0.09#11 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.8#4 | 4.1#16 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 48%#3 | 39%#11 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 68%#4 | 53%#5 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 130#20 | 168#30 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 73#2 | 47#9 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.4#16 | 6.6#8 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 36#11 | 43#30 | 32 | |
Bills: EPA per throw
Ravens: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.