2025
Week 10 · Sunday 4:05 PM ET · Lumen Field
vs
Cardinals offensevsSeahawks defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Cardinals, 20 for Seahawks. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Seahawks won 44–22 and were favored the whole way, never below 71%. The biggest single swing came at Q1 9:32, 9 points for the Seahawks.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 9:32SEAK.J.Brissett sacked at ARI 32 for -11 yards (T.Knight). FUMBLES (T.Knight) [T.Knight], RECOVERED by SEA-D.Lawrence at ARI 34. D.Lawrence for 34…84% → 93%
- 2Q1 11:01SEAS.Darnold pass deep left to J.Smith-Njigba for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.75% → 84%
- 3Q1 12:58SEAS.Darnold pass short left to J.Smith-Njigba to ARI 45 for 8 yards (D.Burke).74% → 77%
- 4Q2 14:15SEAJ.Brissett sacked at ARI 29 for -12 yards (T.Knight). FUMBLES (T.Knight) [T.Knight], RECOVERED by SEA-D.Lawrence at ARI 22. D.Lawrence for 22…97% → 100%
- 5Q1 12:17ARIK.Walker right guard to ARI 44 for 1 yard (D.Tomlinson).23% → 26%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
T.McBride led the Cardinals at +14.7 EPA (9 catches for 127). C.Kupp led the Seahawks at +7.4 EPA (2 catches for 74).
Cardinals
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Brissett96% | 22/44 | 258 | 2 | 5 | -11.9 | |
| K.Slovis4% | 0/1 | 0 | -0.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Knight46% | 10 | 43% | 28 | -5.1 | |
| J.Brissett96% | 4 | 17% | 31 | +2.0 | |
| E.Demercado42% | 4 | 17% | 64 | +2.1 | |
| M.Carter11% | 3 | 13% | 4 | -1.9 | |
| G.Dortch39% | 2 | 9% | 2 | 1 | -0.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.McBride84% | 13 | 30% | 9 | 127 | 1 | +14.7 |
| M.Jr.91% | 12 | 27% | 3 | 33 | 1 | -2.8 |
| M.Wilson92% | 7 | 16% | 4 | 34 | -0.1 | |
| B.Knight46% | 4 | 9% | 1 | 5 | -3.7 | |
| E.Demercado42% | 4 | 9% | 3 | 40 | +1.4 | |
| E.Higgins37% | 3 | 7% | 2 | 19 | +0.6 | |
| Z.Jones14% | 1 | 2% | 0 | 0 | -1.0 |
Defense D.Burke 1 INT, J.Sweat 1 sack
Seahawks
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Darnold90% | 10/12 | 178 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +4.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.III44% | 14 | 30% | 67 | -1.1 | |
| Z.Charbonnet37% | 14 | 30% | 83 | 1 | +3.9 |
| G.Holani18% | 7 | 15% | 31 | 1 | +0.4 |
| D.Lock10% | 4 | 9% | -4 | -0.5 | |
| S.Darnold90% | 3 | 7% | -2 | -5.2 | |
| R.Shaheed34% | 2 | 4% | 20 | +1.4 | |
| A.Barner37% | 2 | 4% | 3 | +0.9 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Smith-Njigba42% | 6 | 50% | 5 | 93 | 1 | +2.6 |
| C.Kupp53% | 2 | 17% | 2 | 74 | +7.4 | |
| R.Shaheed34% | 1 | 8% | 1 | 3 | -0.2 | |
| K.III44% | 1 | 8% | 1 | 3 | -0.2 | |
| N.Kallerup48% | 1 | 8% | 0 | 0 | -0.6 | |
| E.Arroyo47% | 1 | 8% | 1 | 5 | +0.1 |
Defense T.Knight 2 sacks, L.Williams 1 sack, B.Mafe 1 sack, D.Lawrence 0.5 sacks · Kicking J.Myers 3/3 FG (long 46)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Seahawks give up 63 yards a game to tight ends (27th), against a league average of 53. Cardinals' tight ends produce 93 (1st).
Deep middle is open
Seahawks are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.37 EPA per attempt. Cardinals send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Nowhere to run
Cardinals' run game is 29th in EPA per carry (-0.11). Seahawks allow -0.19 (1st).
Success rate
Call this one even. Cardinals succeed on 43% of plays (21st) against a defense that allows 40% (3rd).
The Seahawks lead the series 31–17–1 since 1999 (they first met in 2002). They have won the last 10. Sep 20, 2026, at State Farm Stadium: the Seahawks won 31–7. Jacoby Brissett started at quarterback for the Cardinals and Drew Lock for the Seahawks; Jonathan Gannon and Mike Macdonald coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 2 | SEA 31 at ARI 7 |
| 2025 · Wk 10 | ARI 22 at SEA 44 |
| 2025 · Wk 4 | SEA 23 at ARI 20 |
| 2024 · Wk 14 | SEA 30 at ARI 18 |
| 2024 · Wk 12 | ARI 6 at SEA 16 |
2025 records
| Cardinals | Seahawks | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3–14 | 14–3 |
| Division | 0–6 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 3–9 | 9–3 |
| Other conference | 0–5 | 5–0 |
| Home | 1–7 | 6–2 |
| Away | 2–7 | 8–1 |
| Last 5 | LLLLL | WWWWW |
| Streak | Lost 9 | Won 7 |
| Points a game | 20.9 – 28.7 | 28.4 – 17.2 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Cardinals' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | ARI off | Favors ARI · Favors SEA | SEA def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.02#22 | -0.12#2 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 43%#21 | 40%#3 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.2#23 | 4.8#4 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 8%#29 | 8%#2 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.00#15 | -0.12#5 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 8%#23 | 7%#11 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.11#29 | -0.19#1 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.0#24 | 3.5#1 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 43%#9 | 34%#1 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 57%#22 | 54%#6 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 125#23 | 118#5 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 93#1 | 63#27 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 12.8#1 | 8.3#27 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 38#6 | 41#27 | 32 | |
Cardinals: EPA per throw
Seahawks: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.