2025
Week 10 · Sunday 8:20 PM ET · SoFi Stadium
vs
Chargers offensevsSteelers defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 18 games for Chargers, 18 for Steelers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Chargers won 25–10; their low point was 42% at Q2 14:16. The game turned for good at Q2 13:51: A.Rodgers pass deep right to J.Smith to LAC 11 for 18 yards (D.Henley; D.Perryman). Los Angeles Chargers challenged the pass completion ruling,… (47% → 50%). The biggest single swing came at Q2 3:48, 11 points for the Steelers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 3:48PITJ.Herbert sacked at LAC 29 for -7 yards (K.Benton).29% → 40%
- 2Q2 2:16LACA.Rodgers pass deep middle intended for D.Metcalf INTERCEPTED by R.Mickens at PIT 48. R.Mickens to PIT 38 for 10 yards (K.Gainwell).64% → 74%
- 3Q2 0:16LACJ.Herbert pass short middle to L.McConkey for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.78% → 87%
- 4Q1 5:17LACA.Rodgers sacked at PIT -3 for -12 yards (K.Mack). FUMBLES (K.Mack) [K.Mack], and recovers at PIT -5. A.Rodgers tackled in End Zone, SAFETY.52% → 60%
- 5Q2 13:14LACC.Boswell 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right52% → 59%
- ★Q2 13:51LACA.Rodgers pass deep right to J.Smith to LAC 11 for 18 yards (D.Henley; D.Perryman). Los Angeles Chargers challenged the pass completion ruling,…turning point47% → 50%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
R.Wilson led the Steelers at +3.0 EPA (2 catches for 35). L.McConkey led the Chargers at +9.4 EPA (4 catches for 107).
Steelers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Rodgers100% | 16/31 | 161 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -18.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Warren46% | 14 | 88% | 70 | +0.3 | |
| K.Johnson8% | 2 | 13% | 3 | -1.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Metcalf92% | 7 | 25% | 3 | 35 | -7.7 | |
| C.III73% | 7 | 25% | 2 | 14 | -9.5 | |
| P.Freiermuth50% | 3 | 11% | 3 | 33 | +2.5 | |
| K.Gainwell52% | 3 | 11% | 2 | 4 | -2.7 | |
| R.Wilson35% | 3 | 11% | 2 | 35 | 1 | +3.0 |
| J.Smith67% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 4 | -0.4 | |
| J.Warren46% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 21 | +0.9 | |
| D.Washington48% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 15 | +1.4 |
Defense A.Highsmith 2 sacks, T.Watt 1 sack, N.Herbig 1 sack, K.Benton 1 sack · Kicking C.Boswell 1/2 FG (long 59)
Chargers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Herbert100% | 20/33 | 220 | 1 | 5 | -6.7 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Vidal93% | 25 | 81% | 95 | 1 | -0.7 |
| J.Herbert100% | 5 | 16% | 19 | +0.2 | |
| J.Patterson5% | 1 | 3% | 1 | -0.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q.Johnston82% | 10 | 30% | 5 | 42 | -4.0 | |
| L.McConkey71% | 6 | 18% | 4 | 107 | 1 | +9.4 |
| O.II52% | 6 | 18% | 3 | 13 | -2.6 | |
| K.Allen51% | 5 | 15% | 2 | 19 | -0.9 | |
| T.Harris44% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 4 | -0.9 | |
| T.Conklin32% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 12 | -0.3 | |
| T.Fisk37% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 7 | -0.4 | |
| D.Davis7% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 3 | -0.1 | |
| K.Vidal93% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 13 | +0.9 |
Defense D.Jackson 1 INT, R.Mickens 1 INT, K.Mack 1 sack, B.Dupree 1 sack · Kicking C.Dicker 3/4 FG (long 59)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Third downs favor Chargers
Chargers convert 45% of third downs (5th). Steelers allow 44% (28th).
Deep middle is open
Steelers are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.12 EPA per attempt. Chargers send 2% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Field goals, not touchdowns
Chargers score a touchdown on 47% of red zone trips (29th). Steelers allow 54% (7th).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Chargers gain 5.2 yards per play (22nd). Steelers give up 5.6 (19th), with the league at 5.4.
The Steelers lead the series 9–5 since 1999 (they first met in 2000). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 10 | PIT 10 at LAC 25 |
| 2024 · Wk 3 | LAC 10 at PIT 20 |
| 2021 · Wk 11 | PIT 37 at LAC 41 |
| 2019 · Wk 6 | PIT 24 at LAC 17 |
| 2018 · Wk 13 | LAC 33 at PIT 30 |
2025 records
| Steelers | Chargers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10–7 | 11–6 |
| Division | 4–2 | 5–1 |
| Conference | 8–4 | 8–4 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 3–2 |
| Home | 6–3 | 6–3 |
| Away | 4–4 | 5–3 |
| Last 5 | WWWLW | WWWLL |
| Streak | Won 1 | Lost 2 |
| Points a game | 23.4 – 22.8 | 21.6 – 20.0 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Steelers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | LAC off | Favors LAC · Favors PIT | PIT def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.04#25 | +0.02#18 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 43%#22 | 44%#15 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.2#22 | 5.6#19 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#21 | 9%#15 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.07#26 | +0.03#17 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 10%#28 | 7%#10 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.08#23 | -0.01#26 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.9#25 | 4.3#19 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 45%#5 | 44%#28 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 47%#29 | 54%#7 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 155#10 | 167#29 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 51#18 | 64#28 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.8#26 | 8.3#28 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 23#27 | 30#16 | 32 | |
Chargers: EPA per throw
Steelers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.