2025
Week 12 · Sunday 8:20 PM ET · SoFi Stadium
vs
Rams offensevsBuccaneers defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 20 games for Rams, 17 for Buccaneers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Rams won 34–7 and were favored the whole way, never below 71%. The biggest single swing came at Q1 1:54, 8 points for the Rams.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 1:54TBB.Mayfield pass short right intended for C.Otton INTERCEPTED by C.Durant at 50. C.Durant for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.87% → 95%
- 2Q1 7:47LAM.Stafford pass short right to P.Nacua pushed ob at TB 26 for 31 yards (A.Winfield; J.Parrish).78% → 84%
- 3Q1 9:08LAM.Stafford pass short right to D.Adams to LA 36 for 13 yards (T.Smith).74% → 78%
- 4Q1 5:54LAM.Stafford pass deep right to P.Nacua ran ob at TB 16 for 18 yards.81% → 85%
- 5Q1 9:46LAM.Stafford pass short right to K.Williams to LA 23 for 2 yards (L.David).23% → 26%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
T.Johnson led the Buccaneers at +1.8 EPA (3 catches for 21). M.Stafford led the Rams at +8.2 EPA (25 of 35 for 273).
Buccaneers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Mayfield56% | 9/19 | 41 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -18.2 |
| T.Bridgewater44% | 8/15 | 62 | 2 | -12.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Tucker37% | 12 | 41% | 42 | -0.2 | |
| R.White60% | 7 | 24% | 38 | +0.2 | |
| B.Mayfield56% | 4 | 14% | 19 | +2.2 | |
| O.Wright7% | 3 | 10% | 6 | -1.1 | |
| T.Johnson86% | 2 | 7% | 12 | +0.8 | |
| T.Bridgewater44% | 1 | 3% | 6 | 0.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E.Egbuka90% | 8 | 26% | 3 | 32 | -1.9 | |
| C.Otton86% | 7 | 23% | 4 | 21 | -8.2 | |
| S.Shepard59% | 5 | 16% | 3 | 12 | -5.6 | |
| C.Jr.36% | 4 | 13% | 2 | 9 | -1.4 | |
| T.Johnson86% | 4 | 13% | 3 | 21 | 1 | +1.0 |
| S.Tucker37% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 4 | -0.9 | |
| R.White60% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 4 | -0.9 |
Defense Y.Diaby 1 sack
Rams
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Stafford100% | 25/35 | 273 | 3 | 1 | +8.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Williams66% | 12 | 63% | 46 | -1.4 | |
| B.Corum34% | 7 | 37% | 24 | -1.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.Nacua82% | 11 | 32% | 7 | 97 | +3.3 | |
| D.Adams77% | 8 | 24% | 5 | 62 | 2 | +4.5 |
| C.Parkinson62% | 4 | 12% | 4 | 41 | 1 | +5.6 |
| D.Allen50% | 4 | 12% | 3 | 29 | +0.3 | |
| J.Whittington61% | 3 | 9% | 3 | 17 | -0.2 | |
| K.Mumpfield41% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 25 | +2.4 | |
| K.Williams66% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 2 | -0.7 | |
| T.Ferguson27% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -1.2 |
Defense K.Turner 2 sacks, J.Verse 2 sacks, C.Durant 1 INT, E.Forbes 1 INT · Kicking H.Mevis 2/2 FG (long 52)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Red zone touchdowns
Rams score a touchdown on 65% of red zone trips (7th). Buccaneers allow 65% (27th).
Deep middle is open
Buccaneers are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.01 EPA per attempt. Rams send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Third downs favor Buccaneers
Rams convert 39% of third downs (21st). Buccaneers allow 40% (13th).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Rams create explosive plays on 12% of snaps (6th). Buccaneers give them up at 10% (19th).
The Rams lead the series 11–7 since 1999. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 12 | TB 7 at LA 34 |
| 2022 · Wk 9 | LA 13 at TB 16 |
| 2021 · Wk 20 · playoffs | LA 30 at TB 27 |
| 2021 · Wk 3 | TB 24 at LA 34 |
| 2020 · Wk 11 | LA 27 at TB 24 |
2025 records
| Buccaneers | Rams | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8–9 | 12–5 |
| Division | 3–3 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 6–6 | 7–5 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 5–0 |
| Home | 4–4 | 7–1 |
| Away | 4–5 | 5–4 |
| Last 5 | LLLLW | WWLLW |
| Streak | Won 1 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 22.4 – 24.2 | 30.5 – 20.4 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Buccaneers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | LA off | Favors LA · Favors TB | TB def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.14#1 | +0.02#17 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 51%#1 | 45%#20 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.3#1 | 5.8#24 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 12%#6 | 10%#19 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.22#2 | +0.07#20 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 4%#3 | 6%#21 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.04#4 | -0.11#5 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.9#2 | 4.1#15 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 39%#21 | 40%#13 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 65%#7 | 65%#27 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 192#2 | 148#22 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 69#4 | 57#22 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.8#6 | 7.5#21 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 21#30 | 51#32 | 32 | |
Rams: EPA per throw
Buccaneers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.