2025
Week 14 · Sunday 4:05 PM ET · Allegiant Stadium
vs
Raiders offensevsBroncos defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Raiders, 19 for Broncos. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Broncos won 24–17 and were favored the whole way, never below 71%. The biggest single swing came at Q1 0:05, 9 points for the Raiders.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 0:05LVG.Smith pass short left to B.Bowers for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.16% → 24%
- 2Q2 0:03LVB.Nix pass incomplete deep middle.7% → 14%
- 3Q2 6:44DENA.Cole punts 42 yards to LV 48 M.Mims for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.79% → 86%
- 4Q1 10:10DENB.Nix pass short left to C.Sutton to LV 33 for 14 yards (D.Porter).78% → 83%
- 5Q2 8:39DENG.Smith sacked at LV 8 for -8 yards (M.Roach).71% → 76%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
B.Nix led the Broncos at +8.3 EPA (31 of 38 for 212). J.Bech led the Raiders at +3.5 EPA (6 catches for 50).
Broncos
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Nix100% | 31/38 | 212 | 3 | +5.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Harvey68% | 17 | 55% | 75 | 1 | +2.4 |
| T.Badie16% | 4 | 13% | 16 | -0.3 | |
| J.McLaughlin14% | 4 | 13% | 22 | -0.7 | |
| B.Nix100% | 3 | 10% | 15 | 1 | +2.4 |
| A.Prentice41% | 2 | 6% | 22 | +1.9 | |
| M.Jr.27% | 1 | 3% | 2 | -0.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Sutton65% | 10 | 28% | 6 | 62 | +1.5 | |
| R.Harvey68% | 6 | 17% | 6 | 25 | +4.8 | |
| T.Franklin26% | 4 | 11% | 3 | 11 | -1.8 | |
| P.Bryant47% | 4 | 11% | 4 | 32 | +2.8 | |
| L.Humphrey38% | 3 | 8% | 3 | 27 | +1.8 | |
| E.Engram36% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 8 | -0.6 | |
| A.Trautman74% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 17 | +0.8 | |
| A.Prentice41% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 11 | +0.6 | |
| T.Badie16% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 5 | +0.0 | |
| J.McLaughlin14% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 9 | +0.6 | |
| M.Jr.27% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 5 | -0.2 |
Defense N.Bonitto 2 sacks, J.Franklin-Myers 1 sack, M.Roach 1 sack · Kicking W.Lutz 1/1 FG (long 23)
Raiders
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G.Smith74% | 13/21 | 116 | 1 | 3 | -2.7 | |
| K.Pickett26% | 8/11 | 97 | 1 | 1 | +1.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Jeanty70% | 10 | 83% | 30 | -2.0 | |
| G.Smith74% | 1 | 8% | 4 | -0.1 | |
| K.Pickett26% | 1 | 8% | 6 | +0.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Bech82% | 6 | 21% | 6 | 50 | +3.5 | |
| T.Tucker94% | 5 | 18% | 2 | 24 | -1.1 | |
| B.Bowers100% | 5 | 18% | 4 | 46 | 1 | +1.3 |
| T.Lockett60% | 4 | 14% | 3 | 41 | +1.6 | |
| A.Jeanty70% | 4 | 14% | 2 | 8 | -2.5 | |
| I.Thomas50% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 17 | +1.9 | |
| R.Mostert30% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 2 | -0.2 | |
| S.Jackson4% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 25 | 1 | +3.4 |
Defense M.Crosby 1 sack, J.Chinn 1 sack, T.Hemingway 1 sack · Kicking D.Carlson 1/1 FG (long 46)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Broncos give up 8.3 targets a game to tight ends (26th), against a league average of 7.3. Raiders' tight ends produce 9.2 (3rd).
Deep right is open
Broncos are worst against deep right throws, allowing +0.40 EPA per attempt. Raiders send 7% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Pressure problem
Raiders take a sack on 11% of dropbacks (32nd). Broncos get home on 11% (1st). League average is 7%.
EPA per play
Call this one even. Raiders average -0.22 EPA per play (32nd). Broncos allow -0.08 (8th). League average is +0.01.
The Broncos lead the series 31–23 since 1999. They have won the last 4. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 14 | DEN 24 at LV 17 |
| 2025 · Wk 10 | LV 7 at DEN 10 |
| 2024 · Wk 12 | DEN 29 at LV 19 |
| 2024 · Wk 5 | LV 18 at DEN 34 |
| 2023 · Wk 18 | DEN 14 at LV 27 |
2025 records
| Broncos | Raiders | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14–3 | 3–14 |
| Division | 5–1 | 1–5 |
| Conference | 9–3 | 3–9 |
| Other conference | 5–0 | 0–5 |
| Home | 8–1 | 2–7 |
| Away | 6–2 | 1–7 |
| Last 5 | WWLWW | LLLLW |
| Streak | Won 2 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 23.6 – 18.3 | 14.2 – 25.4 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Broncos' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | LV off | Favors LV · Favors DEN | DEN def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.22#32 | -0.08#8 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 38%#30 | 37%#1 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 4.4#31 | 4.5#1 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 7%#31 | 7%#1 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.19#29 | -0.11#7 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 11%#32 | 11%#1 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.30#32 | -0.09#10 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.5#32 | 3.6#3 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 35%#28 | 36%#5 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 49%#28 | 45%#2 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 100#30 | 128#11 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 68#5 | 60#24 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 9.2#3 | 8.3#26 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 27#21 | 21#2 | 32 | |
Raiders: EPA per throw
Broncos: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.