2025
Week 14 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · U.S. Bank Stadium
vs
Vikings offensevsCommanders defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Vikings, 17 for Commanders. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Vikings won 31–0; their low point was 44% at Q1 3:42. The Commanders had been 54% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q1 2:46: J.Daniels pass incomplete short middle to D.Samuel (50% → 60%).
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 2:46WASJ.Daniels pass incomplete short middle to D.Samuel.turning point50% → 60%
- 2Q1 5:15WASJ.Daniels pass short left to D.Samuel to MIN 19 for 15 yards (I.Rodgers; A.Van Ginkel).45% → 55%
- 3Q3 8:24WASJ.Daniels pass short left intended for T.McLaurin INTERCEPTED by A.Van Ginkel at MIN 30. A.Van Ginkel to WAS 30 for 40 yards (T.McLaurin).82% → 91%
- 4Q2 9:59MINJ.McCarthy pass deep left to J.Addison to WAS 28 for 21 yards (Q.Martin).63% → 71%
- 5Q2 7:50MINJ.McCarthy pass short middle to J.Jefferson to WAS 17 for 13 yards (B.Wagner; Q.Martin).67% → 75%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
Z.Ertz led the Commanders at +2.2 EPA (1 catches for 11). J.McCarthy led the Vikings at +7.6 EPA (16 of 23 for 163).
Commanders
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Daniels75% | 9/20 | 78 | 1 | 1 | -11.3 | |
| M.Mariota25% | 2/4 | 30 | 1 | 1 | -5.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Jr.42% | 10 | 43% | 52 | +1.6 | |
| J.Croskey-Merritt19% | 7 | 30% | 32 | -0.4 | |
| J.Daniels75% | 4 | 17% | 16 | -0.7 | |
| M.Mariota25% | 2 | 9% | 7 | -4.6 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.McLaurin62% | 6 | 30% | 3 | 41 | -4.4 | |
| D.Sr.52% | 6 | 30% | 4 | 27 | -1.6 | |
| Z.Ertz69% | 2 | 10% | 1 | 11 | +2.2 | |
| N.Brown62% | 2 | 10% | 1 | 19 | -0.2 | |
| J.McNichols35% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 2 | -0.7 | |
| T.Burks37% | 1 | 5% | 0 | 0 | -5.1 | |
| C.Yankoff23% | 1 | 5% | 0 | 0 | -0.6 | |
| B.Sinnott25% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 8 | +0.4 |
Defense V.Miller 1 sack, B.Wagner 1 sack, D.Payne 1 sack, W.Harris 1 sack
Vikings
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.McCarthy100% | 16/23 | 163 | 3 | 4 | +9.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Jones45% | 14 | 41% | 76 | +2.6 | |
| J.Mason30% | 11 | 32% | 52 | 1 | +2.1 |
| J.McCarthy100% | 6 | 18% | 19 | -1.7 | |
| Z.Scott9% | 3 | 9% | 15 | +1.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Addison67% | 7 | 30% | 4 | 62 | +3.2 | |
| J.Jefferson80% | 4 | 17% | 2 | 11 | +0.2 | |
| T.Hockenson56% | 3 | 13% | 2 | 12 | 1 | +2.8 |
| J.Nailor58% | 3 | 13% | 3 | 30 | +3.9 | |
| J.Oliver62% | 2 | 9% | 2 | 24 | 2 | +2.9 |
| A.Jones45% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 | |
| Z.Scott9% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 5 | -0.2 | |
| B.Sims30% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 9 | +1.0 | |
| T.Felton17% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 10 | +0.6 |
Defense H.Smith 1 INT, A.Ginkel 1 INT, E.Wilson 1 sack, J.Redmond 1 sack · Kicking W.Reichard 1/1 FG (long 45)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Ground game edge
Vikings average 4.4 yards per carry (11th). Commanders allow 4.7 (28th).
Deep middle is open
Commanders are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.54 EPA per attempt. Vikings send 2% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Commanders give up 6.7 targets a game to tight ends (10th), against a league average of 7.3. Vikings' tight ends produce 5.5 (29th).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Vikings average -0.12 EPA per play (28th). Commanders allow +0.14 (30th). League average is +0.01.
The Vikings lead the series 9–4 since 1999 (they first met in 2004). They have won the last 4. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 14 | WAS 0 at MIN 31 |
| 2022 · Wk 9 | MIN 20 at WAS 17 |
| 2019 · Wk 8 | WAS 9 at MIN 19 |
| 2017 · Wk 10 | MIN 38 at WAS 30 |
| 2016 · Wk 10 | MIN 20 at WAS 26 |
2025 records
| Commanders | Vikings | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5–12 | 9–8 |
| Division | 3–3 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 3–9 | 7–5 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Home | 2–6 | 4–4 |
| Away | 3–6 | 5–4 |
| Last 5 | LWLLW | WWWWW |
| Streak | Won 1 | Won 5 |
| Points a game | 20.9 – 26.5 | 20.2 – 19.6 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Commanders' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | MIN off | Favors MIN · Favors WAS | WAS def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.12#28 | +0.14#30 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 43%#23 | 48%#27 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.0#28 | 6.1#30 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#13 | 11%#26 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.19#30 | +0.20#30 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 11%#31 | 7%#12 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.05#18 | +0.03#28 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.4#11 | 4.7#28 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 33%#31 | 42%#22 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 60%#13 | 67%#30 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 129#22 | 163#27 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 38#29 | 61#26 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.5#29 | 6.7#10 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 22#28 | 33#21 | 32 | |
Vikings: EPA per throw
Commanders: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.