2025
Week 14 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · M&T Bank Stadium
vs
Ravens offensevsSteelers defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Ravens, 18 for Steelers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Steelers won 27–22 from as low as 24% (Q1 12:21, tied 0–0). The Ravens had been 71% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 2:32: D.Henry up the middle to PIT 8 for -3 yards (A.Highsmith). ** Injury Update: PIT-P.Queen has returned to the game. Penalty on BAL, Illegal… (48% → 62%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 3:36, 26 points for the Ravens.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 3:36BALL.Jackson pass short middle to Z.Flowers to PIT 13 for 33 yards (P.Wilson).29% → 55%
- 2Q4 2:28PITL.Jackson pass incomplete short middle to M.Andrews.62% → 83%
- 3Q4 0:09PITL.Jackson sacked at PIT 38 for -8 yards (A.Highsmith).79% → 100%
- 4Q3 3:38PITA.Rodgers pass short right to J.Warren for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.65% → 80%
- 5Q4 2:32PITD.Henry up the middle to PIT 8 for -3 yards (A.Highsmith). ** Injury Update: PIT-P.Queen has returned to the game. Penalty on BAL, Illegal…turning point48% → 62%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
A.Rodgers led the Steelers at +10.4 EPA (23 of 34 for 284). Z.Flowers led the Ravens at +6.7 EPA (8 catches for 124).
Steelers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Rodgers100% | 23/34 | 284 | 1 | +10.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Warren50% | 8 | 47% | 13 | -2.6 | |
| K.Gainwell48% | 4 | 24% | 15 | 1 | +2.4 |
| A.Rodgers100% | 2 | 12% | 0 | 1 | +1.4 |
| K.Johnson6% | 2 | 12% | 4 | -0.7 | |
| C.Heyward10% | 1 | 6% | 2 | +2.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Metcalf83% | 12 | 36% | 7 | 148 | +6.8 | |
| K.Gainwell48% | 7 | 21% | 6 | 27 | -0.2 | |
| P.Freiermuth60% | 3 | 9% | 2 | 9 | -1.4 | |
| J.Warren50% | 3 | 9% | 3 | 49 | 1 | +4.9 |
| C.III31% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 31 | +1.5 | |
| A.Rodgers100% | 1 | 3% | 1 | -9 | -1.5 | |
| A.Thielen48% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 4 | +0.1 | |
| J.Smith52% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 | |
| M.Valdes-Scantling31% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.7 | |
| B.Skowronek17% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 13 | +1.4 | |
| D.Washington29% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 12 | +0.8 |
Defense J.Pierre 1 INT, A.Highsmith 1 sack, B.Echols 1 sack · Kicking C.Boswell 2/2 FG (long 28)
Ravens
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L.Jackson100% | 19/35 | 219 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -5.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Henry54% | 25 | 63% | 94 | -2.0 | |
| L.Jackson100% | 7 | 18% | 43 | 1 | +5.8 |
| K.Mitchell15% | 6 | 15% | 76 | +2.8 | |
| Z.Flowers92% | 1 | 3% | 2 | -0.4 | |
| R.Ali34% | 1 | 3% | 2 | -0.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z.Flowers92% | 11 | 33% | 8 | 124 | +7.2 | |
| I.Likely60% | 6 | 18% | 4 | 25 | 1 | +2.5 |
| M.Andrews68% | 5 | 15% | 1 | 9 | -4.3 | |
| R.Bateman86% | 3 | 9% | 2 | 23 | -0.1 | |
| R.Ali34% | 3 | 9% | 2 | 11 | -4.3 | |
| D.Henry54% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 8 | -0.2 | |
| D.Hopkins16% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -1.5 | |
| P.Ricard36% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.7 | |
| C.Kolar24% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 19 | +0.9 |
Defense no sacks or interceptions · Kicking T.Loop 3/3 FG (long 36)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Run it at them
Ravens' run game is 3rd in EPA per carry (+0.05). Steelers allow -0.01 (26th).
Deep middle is open
Steelers are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.12 EPA per attempt. Ravens send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Field goals, not touchdowns
Ravens score a touchdown on 49% of red zone trips (27th). Steelers allow 54% (7th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Ravens succeed on 45% of plays (14th) against a defense that allows 44% (15th).
The Steelers lead the series 33–26 since 1999. They have won the last 2. Jan 4, 2026, at Acrisure Stadium: the Steelers won 26–24. Aaron Rodgers started at quarterback for the Steelers and Lamar Jackson for the Ravens; Mike Tomlin and John Harbaugh coached.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 18 | BAL 24 at PIT 26 |
| 2025 · Wk 14 | PIT 27 at BAL 22 |
| 2024 · Wk 19 · playoffs | PIT 14 at BAL 28 |
| 2024 · Wk 16 | PIT 17 at BAL 34 |
| 2024 · Wk 11 | BAL 16 at PIT 18 |
2025 records
| Steelers | Ravens | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10–7 | 8–9 |
| Division | 4–2 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 8–4 | 5–7 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 3–2 |
| Home | 6–3 | 3–6 |
| Away | 4–4 | 5–3 |
| Last 5 | WWWLW | LWLWL |
| Streak | Won 1 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 23.4 – 22.8 | 24.9 – 23.4 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Steelers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | BAL off | Favors BAL · Favors PIT | PIT def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.03#11 | +0.02#18 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 45%#14 | 44%#15 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.9#6 | 5.6#19 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 12%#2 | 9%#15 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.04#24 | +0.03#17 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 10%#27 | 7%#10 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.05#3 | -0.01#26 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 5.2#1 | 4.3#19 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 41%#15 | 44%#28 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 49%#27 | 54%#7 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 114#25 | 167#29 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 51#17 | 64#28 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.2#17 | 8.3#28 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 27#22 | 30#16 | 32 | |
Ravens: EPA per throw
Steelers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.