2025
Week 15 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Paycor Stadium
vs
Bengals offensevsRavens defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Bengals, 17 for Ravens. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Ravens won 24–0; their low point was 44% at Q1 4:13. The game turned for good at Q2 12:32: C.Brown left end to BAL 29 for 5 yards (N.Wiggins; T.Simpson) (50% → 51%). The biggest single swing came at Q2 9:46, 10 points for the Bengals.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 9:46CINL.Jackson pass short right intended for Z.Flowers INTERCEPTED by J.Battle at CIN 27. J.Battle to CIN 27 for no gain (Z.Flowers).34% → 44%
- 2Q2 4:42BALL.Jackson pass short right to R.Ali for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.66% → 76%
- 3Q2 11:48BALJ.Burrow pass short middle intended for J.Chase INTERCEPTED by M.Humphrey [D.Jones] at BAL 14. M.Humphrey to BAL 35 for 21 yards (C.Brown).53% → 61%
- 4Q1 3:44BALJ.Burrow sacked at BAL 40 for -15 yards (T.Robinson).49% → 57%
- 5Q2 13:32CINPENALTY on BAL-K.Van Noy, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 49 - No Play.42% → 49%
- ★Q2 12:32BALC.Brown left end to BAL 29 for 5 yards (N.Wiggins; T.Simpson).turning point50% → 51%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
D.Henry led the Ravens at +4.2 EPA (11 carries for 100). J.Chase led the Bengals at +4.1 EPA (10 catches for 132).
Ravens
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L.Jackson88% | 8/12 | 150 | 2 | 1 | 4 | +0.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Henry37% | 11 | 46% | 100 | +4.2 | |
| K.Mitchell39% | 8 | 33% | 66 | +2.2 | |
| T.Huntley12% | 3 | 13% | -3 | -2.4 | |
| L.Jackson88% | 2 | 8% | 26 | +1.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z.Flowers78% | 5 | 42% | 3 | 68 | 1 | +1.2 |
| M.Andrews41% | 3 | 25% | 2 | 18 | +0.7 | |
| R.Ali27% | 2 | 17% | 2 | 32 | 1 | +3.3 |
| D.Hopkins32% | 1 | 8% | 1 | 32 | +2.0 | |
| K.Mitchell39% | 1 | 8% | 0 | 0 | -1.0 |
Defense K.Noy 1 INT, M.Humphrey 1 INT, T.Jones 1 sack, T.Robinson 1 sack · Kicking T.Loop 1/1 FG (long 27)
Bengals
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Burrow100% | 25/39 | 225 | 2 | 3 | -13.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Perine45% | 14 | 48% | 42 | -6.0 | |
| C.Brown62% | 13 | 45% | 53 | -0.5 | |
| J.Burrow100% | 2 | 7% | 5 | -1.7 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Chase97% | 16 | 44% | 10 | 132 | +4.1 | |
| C.Brown62% | 7 | 19% | 7 | 37 | +3.7 | |
| T.Hudson25% | 5 | 14% | 3 | 16 | -10.3 | |
| M.Gesicki57% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 11 | -1.4 | |
| D.Sample54% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 12 | -0.7 | |
| M.Tinsley45% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 16 | +0.2 | |
| S.Perine45% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 1 | -0.7 | |
| A.Iosivas89% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.7 |
Defense M.Murphy 2 sacks, D.Jr. 2 sacks, J.Battle 1 INT
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Wideouts feast
Ravens give up 168 yards a game to wide receivers (30th), against a league average of 140. Bengals' wide receivers produce 167 (5th).
Deep middle is open
Ravens are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.82 EPA per attempt. Bengals send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Ravens give up 47 yards a game to tight ends (9th), against a league average of 53. Bengals' tight ends produce 52 (15th).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Bengals average -0.01 EPA per play (20th). Ravens allow +0.03 (20th). League average is +0.01.
The Ravens lead the series 30–26 since 1999. Oct 25, 2026, at M&T Bank Stadium: the Bengals won 35–13. Tyler Huntley started at quarterback for the Ravens and Joe Burrow for the Bengals; Jesse Minter and Zac Taylor coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 7 | CIN 35 at BAL 13 |
| 2025 · Wk 15 | BAL 24 at CIN 0 |
| 2025 · Wk 13 | CIN 32 at BAL 14 |
| 2024 · Wk 10 | CIN 34 at BAL 35 |
| 2024 · Wk 5 · OT | BAL 41 at CIN 38 |
2025 records
| Ravens | Bengals | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8–9 | 6–11 |
| Division | 3–3 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 1–4 |
| Home | 3–6 | 3–6 |
| Away | 5–3 | 3–5 |
| Last 5 | LWLWL | LLWWL |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 24.9 – 23.4 | 24.4 – 28.9 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Ravens' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | CIN off | Favors CIN · Favors BAL | BAL def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.01#20 | +0.03#20 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 46%#10 | 44%#17 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.4#16 | 5.6#22 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 8%#27 | 10%#21 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.03#23 | +0.08#21 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#10 | 5%#31 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.02#5 | -0.09#11 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.3#13 | 4.1#16 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 45%#4 | 39%#11 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 73%#1 | 53%#5 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 167#5 | 168#30 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 52#15 | 47#9 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.6#12 | 6.6#8 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 30#15 | 43#30 | 32 | |
Bengals: EPA per throw
Ravens: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.