2025
Week 15 · Sunday 8:20 PM ET · AT&T Stadium
vs
Cowboys offensevsVikings defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Cowboys, 17 for Vikings. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Vikings won 34–26 from as low as 13% (Q1 4:31, down 7–0). The Cowboys had been 71% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 12:24: B.Aubrey 59 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right (45% → 58%). The biggest single swing came at Q1 14:09, 14 points for the Cowboys.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 14:09DALJ.McCarthy pass short right intended for J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by Q.Williams (D.Wilson) at MIN 35. Q.Williams to MIN 35 for no gain (J.Oliver).69% → 83%
- 2Q4 12:24MINB.Aubrey 59 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Rightturning point45% → 58%
- 3Q3 1:14MINC.Ham up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.31% → 43%
- 4Q4 9:16MINJ.McCarthy pass short right to J.Nailor for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.70% → 80%
- 5Q3 2:49MINJ.McCarthy pass deep right to J.Nailor to DAL 14 for 23 yards (S.Revel).18% → 27%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.McCarthy led the Vikings at +15.0 EPA (15 of 24 for 250). C.Lamb led the Cowboys at +5.9 EPA (6 catches for 111).
Vikings
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.McCarthy100% | 15/24 | 250 | 2 | 1 | +12.0 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Jones58% | 12 | 43% | 34 | -1.7 | |
| J.Mason36% | 10 | 36% | 29 | -1.2 | |
| J.McCarthy100% | 4 | 14% | 15 | 1 | +3.0 |
| C.Ham29% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 1 | +0.8 |
| J.Nailor51% | 1 | 4% | -2 | -2.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Jefferson96% | 8 | 33% | 2 | 22 | -6.7 | |
| T.Hockenson80% | 5 | 21% | 4 | 66 | +3.2 | |
| J.Nailor51% | 5 | 21% | 3 | 47 | 2 | +5.4 |
| A.Jones58% | 3 | 13% | 3 | 31 | +2.7 | |
| J.Addison64% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 66 | +6.1 | |
| J.Oliver62% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 18 | +1.2 |
Defense J.Greenard 1 sack, J.Hargrave 0.5 sacks, A.Ginkel 0.5 sacks · Kicking W.Reichard 2/2 FG (long 53)
Cowboys
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Prescott100% | 23/38 | 294 | 2 | +1.0 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Williams29% | 15 | 52% | 91 | 1 | +5.2 |
| M.Davis53% | 8 | 28% | 21 | 1 | +0.3 |
| H.Luepke21% | 3 | 10% | 16 | -0.8 | |
| D.Prescott100% | 1 | 3% | 2 | -0.3 | |
| B.Aubrey | 1 | 3% | 6 | +2.7 | |
| K.Turpin20% | 1 | 3% | 2 | -0.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Lamb86% | 10 | 29% | 6 | 111 | +5.9 | |
| G.Pickens86% | 6 | 17% | 3 | 33 | +0.4 | |
| R.Flournoy64% | 5 | 14% | 4 | 40 | +2.6 | |
| J.Ferguson71% | 4 | 11% | 2 | 16 | -1.0 | |
| M.Davis53% | 3 | 9% | 2 | 16 | -4.1 | |
| K.Turpin20% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 10 | -0.5 | |
| H.Luepke21% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 14 | +0.3 | |
| L.Schoonmaker30% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 29 | +2.2 | |
| J.Mingo10% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 25 | +1.2 | |
| B.Spann-Ford30% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.7 |
Defense Q.Williams 1 INT · Kicking B.Aubrey 4/6 FG (long 41)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Run it at them
Cowboys' run game is 8th in EPA per carry (0.00). Vikings allow -0.08 (13th).
Deep middle is open
Vikings are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.35 EPA per attempt. Cowboys send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Checkdowns go nowhere
Vikings give up 19 yards a game to running backs (1st), against a league average of 32. Cowboys' running backs produce 18 (32nd).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Cowboys average +0.10 EPA per play (4th). Vikings allow -0.10 (3rd). League average is +0.01.
The Vikings lead the series 8–6 since 1999. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 15 | MIN 34 at DAL 26 |
| 2022 · Wk 11 | DAL 40 at MIN 3 |
| 2021 · Wk 8 | DAL 20 at MIN 16 |
| 2020 · Wk 11 | DAL 31 at MIN 28 |
| 2019 · Wk 10 | MIN 28 at DAL 24 |
2025 records
| Vikings | Cowboys | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9–8 | 7–9–1 |
| Division | 4–2 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 7–5 | 4–7–1 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 3–2 |
| Home | 4–4 | 4–3–1 |
| Away | 5–4 | 3–6 |
| Last 5 | WWWWW | LLLWL |
| Streak | Won 5 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 20.2 – 19.6 | 27.7 – 30.1 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Vikings' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | DAL off | Favors DAL · Favors MIN | MIN def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.10#4 | -0.10#3 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 47%#5 | 41%#5 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.1#2 | 4.7#3 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#17 | 9%#11 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.16#6 | -0.15#2 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#6 | 10%#2 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | 0.00#8 | -0.08#13 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.6#6 | 3.8#6 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 43%#8 | 35%#2 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 58%#18 | 45%#3 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 212#1 | 116#2 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 48#20 | 42#4 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.1#10 | 6.5#7 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 18#32 | 19#1 | 32 | |
Cowboys: EPA per throw
Vikings: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.