2025
Week 17 · Thursday 8:15 PM ET · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
vs
Chiefs offensevsBroncos defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Chiefs, 19 for Broncos. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Broncos won 20–13 and were favored the whole way, never below 55%. The biggest single swing came at Q4 2:00, 11 points for the Broncos.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 2:00DENF.PENALTY on KC-C.Jones, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at KC 9 - No Play.77% → 89%
- 2Q3 2:53DENF.B.Nix left guard to KC 9 for 1 yard (D.Tranquill).63% → 73%
- 3Q4 5:52DENB.Nix pass short middle to L.Humphrey to KC 28 for 17 yards (B.Cook) [C.Jones].70% → 80%
- 4Q4 11:14KCJ.Crawshaw punts 58 yards to KC 11 B.Smith to DEN 45 for 44 yards (D.Tillman).16% → 26%
- 5Q4 8:08KCH.Butker 47 yard field goal is GOOD23% → 32%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
B.Nix led the Broncos at +8.0 EPA (26 of 38 for 182). K.Hunt led the Chiefs at +1.9 EPA (7 carries for 38).
Broncos
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Nix100% | 26/38 | 182 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Harvey65% | 14 | 44% | 43 | -2.3 | |
| B.Nix100% | 9 | 28% | 42 | 1 | +5.1 |
| J.McLaughlin22% | 7 | 22% | 40 | +1.5 | |
| A.Prentice29% | 2 | 6% | 3 | -0.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Sutton82% | 10 | 27% | 4 | 40 | -1.1 | |
| R.Harvey65% | 6 | 16% | 5 | 33 | 1 | +4.4 |
| L.Humphrey60% | 5 | 14% | 2 | 23 | -1.6 | |
| E.Engram31% | 4 | 11% | 4 | 21 | -0.5 | |
| M.Jr.47% | 4 | 11% | 3 | 10 | -0.8 | |
| T.Franklin38% | 4 | 11% | 4 | 17 | +0.8 | |
| A.Trautman72% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 24 | +2.3 | |
| M.Bandy10% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 14 | +1.9 |
Defense D.Tillman 0.5 sacks, J.Elliss 0.5 sacks · Kicking W.Lutz 2/2 FG (long 30)
Chiefs
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Oladokun100% | 13/22 | 66 | 1 | 1 | -8.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I.Pacheco35% | 9 | 47% | 32 | -1.6 | |
| K.Hunt56% | 7 | 37% | 38 | +1.9 | |
| C.Oladokun100% | 2 | 11% | 11 | +0.3 | |
| X.Worthy79% | 1 | 5% | 1 | -0.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Kelce98% | 6 | 30% | 5 | 36 | +1.4 | |
| B.Smith14% | 4 | 20% | 3 | 5 | 1 | -1.0 |
| J.Smith-Schuster81% | 3 | 15% | 3 | 16 | -0.1 | |
| M.Brown60% | 3 | 15% | 1 | 7 | -3.1 | |
| X.Worthy79% | 3 | 15% | 0 | 0 | -3.0 | |
| N.Gray49% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 2 | -0.5 |
Defense N.Bolton 1 INT, C.Jones 1 sack · Kicking H.Butker 2/2 FG (long 53)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Broncos give up 8.3 targets a game to tight ends (26th), against a league average of 7.3. Chiefs' tight ends produce 8.6 (7th).
Deep right is open
Broncos are worst against deep right throws, allowing +0.40 EPA per attempt. Chiefs send 9% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Checkdowns go nowhere
Broncos give up 21 yards a game to running backs (2nd), against a league average of 32. Chiefs' running backs produce 25 (25th).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Chiefs average +0.03 EPA per play (12th). Broncos allow -0.08 (8th). League average is +0.01.
The Chiefs lead the series 31–25 since 1999. Nov 1, 2026, at Empower Field at Mile High: the Broncos won 28–24. Bo Nix started at quarterback for the Broncos and Patrick Mahomes for the Chiefs; Sean Payton and Andy Reid coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 8 | KC 24 at DEN 28 |
| 2026 · Wk 1 | DEN 10 at KC 31 |
| 2025 · Wk 17 | DEN 20 at KC 13 |
| 2025 · Wk 11 | KC 19 at DEN 22 |
| 2024 · Wk 18 | KC 0 at DEN 38 |
2025 records
| Broncos | Chiefs | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14–3 | 6–11 |
| Division | 5–1 | 1–5 |
| Conference | 9–3 | 3–9 |
| Other conference | 5–0 | 3–2 |
| Home | 8–1 | 5–4 |
| Away | 6–2 | 1–7 |
| Last 5 | WWLWW | LLLLL |
| Streak | Won 2 | Lost 6 |
| Points a game | 23.6 – 18.3 | 21.3 – 19.3 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Broncos' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | KC off | Favors KC · Favors DEN | DEN def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.03#12 | -0.08#8 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 44%#15 | 37%#1 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.2#20 | 4.5#1 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#18 | 7%#1 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.04#14 | -0.11#7 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 7%#21 | 11%#1 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.05#15 | -0.09#10 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.8#26 | 3.6#3 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 38%#23 | 36%#5 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 57%#19 | 45%#2 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 147#14 | 128#11 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 61#8 | 60#24 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.6#7 | 8.3#26 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 25#25 | 21#2 | 32 | |
Chiefs: EPA per throw
Broncos: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.