2025
Week 17 · Saturday 4:30 PM ET · SoFi Stadium
vs
Chargers offensevsTexans defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 18 games for Chargers, 19 for Texans. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Texans won 20–16; their low point was 47% at Q1 14:13. The Chargers had been 52% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q1 13:30: C.Stroud pass deep middle to J.Higgins for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN (47% → 60%). The biggest single swing came at Q2 1:52, 15 points for the Chargers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 1:52LACJ.Herbert pass deep left to Q.Johnston to HOU 14 for 60 yards (T.Smith).19% → 34%
- 2Q1 13:30HOUC.Stroud pass deep middle to J.Higgins for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.turning point47% → 60%
- 3Q2 1:12LACJ.Herbert pass short middle intended for O.Gadsden INTERCEPTED by A.Al-Shaair at HOU 1. A.Al-Shaair to HOU 1 for no gain.66% → 75%
- 4Q2 0:49HOUC.Stroud pass short middle intended for C.Kirk INTERCEPTED by E.Molden at HOU 32. E.Molden to HOU 32 for no gain (C.Kirk).21% → 30%
- 5Q1 9:24HOUC.Stroud pass deep left to J.Noel for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.71% → 79%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
N.Collins led the Texans at +4.3 EPA (3 catches for 57). Q.Johnston led the Chargers at +6.2 EPA (5 catches for 98).
Texans
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Stroud100% | 16/28 | 244 | 2 | 2 | -4.7 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W.Marks68% | 19 | 56% | 71 | -3.1 | |
| J.Jordan17% | 8 | 24% | 36 | -0.1 | |
| C.Stroud100% | 4 | 12% | 0 | -2.0 | |
| N.Chubb8% | 1 | 3% | 1 | -0.6 | |
| X.Hutchinson48% | 1 | 3% | 8 | +0.4 | |
| J.Noel25% | 1 | 3% | 2 | -1.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Kirk45% | 5 | 19% | 2 | 1 | -5.9 | |
| D.Schultz78% | 4 | 15% | 3 | 19 | -2.9 | |
| N.Collins68% | 4 | 15% | 3 | 57 | +4.3 | |
| J.Higgins49% | 4 | 15% | 2 | 88 | 1 | +1.6 |
| J.Noel25% | 4 | 15% | 3 | 54 | 1 | +2.7 |
| X.Hutchinson48% | 3 | 12% | 2 | 21 | +0.2 | |
| W.Marks68% | 2 | 8% | 1 | 4 | -2.5 |
Defense D.Barnett 2 sacks, A.Al-Shaair 1 INT, D.Autry 1 sack, D.Hunter 1 sack · Kicking K.Fairbairn 2/2 FG (long 44)
Chargers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Herbert100% | 21/32 | 236 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O.Hampton81% | 14 | 64% | 29 | 1 | -4.6 |
| J.Herbert100% | 6 | 27% | 37 | +1.0 | |
| J.Patterson13% | 1 | 5% | 1 | -0.5 | |
| T.Harris46% | 1 | 5% | 7 | +0.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q.Johnston75% | 8 | 26% | 5 | 98 | +6.2 | |
| O.Hampton81% | 8 | 26% | 8 | 31 | -3.3 | |
| O.II73% | 6 | 19% | 3 | 32 | 1 | -5.7 |
| K.Allen57% | 3 | 10% | 1 | 17 | -0.2 | |
| W.Dissly11% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 19 | +2.6 | |
| L.McConkey89% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 31 | +1.4 | |
| K.Lambert-Smith11% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.8 | |
| T.Harris46% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 8 | +1.4 |
Defense D.James 1 INT, E.Molden 1 INT · Kicking C.Dicker 1/2 FG (long 27)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Third downs favor Chargers
Chargers convert 45% of third downs (5th). Texans allow 36% (6th).
Deep left is open
Texans are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.68 EPA per attempt. Chargers send 7% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Passing lanes are closed
Chargers gain -0.07 EPA per dropback (26th). Texans allow -0.22 (1st).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Chargers create explosive plays on 9% of snaps (21st). Texans give them up at 8% (8th).
The Chargers lead the series 6–5 since 1999 (they first met in 2002). The Texans have won the last 2. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 17 | HOU 20 at LAC 16 |
| 2024 · Wk 19 · playoffs | LAC 12 at HOU 32 |
| 2022 · Wk 4 | LAC 34 at HOU 24 |
| 2021 · Wk 16 | LAC 29 at HOU 41 |
| 2019 · Wk 3 | HOU 27 at LAC 20 |
2025 records
| Texans | Chargers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12–5 | 11–6 |
| Division | 5–1 | 5–1 |
| Conference | 10–2 | 8–4 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 3–2 |
| Home | 7–2 | 6–3 |
| Away | 5–3 | 5–3 |
| Last 5 | WWWWW | WWWLL |
| Streak | Won 9 | Lost 2 |
| Points a game | 23.8 – 17.4 | 21.6 – 20.0 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Texans' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | LAC off | Favors LAC · Favors HOU | HOU def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.04#25 | -0.16#1 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 43%#22 | 37%#2 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.2#22 | 4.7#2 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#21 | 8%#8 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.07#26 | -0.22#1 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 10%#28 | 9%#6 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.08#23 | -0.16#2 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.9#25 | 3.5#2 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 45%#5 | 36%#6 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 47%#29 | 60%#21 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 155#10 | 128#10 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 51#18 | 43#5 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.8#26 | 7.0#13 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 23#27 | 31#18 | 32 | |
Chargers: EPA per throw
Texans: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.