2025
Week 18 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · SoFi Stadium
vs
Rams offensevsCardinals defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 20 games for Rams, 17 for Cardinals. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Rams won 37–20 and were favored the whole way, never below 58%. The biggest single swing came at Q3 3:57, 14 points for the Cardinals.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q3 3:57ARIJ.Brissett pass short left to J.Deguara for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [B.Fiske].28% → 42%
- 2Q3 0:50LAM.Stafford pass short right to C.Parkinson for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.73% → 82%
- 3Q1 13:10LAJ.Brissett sacked at ARI 17 for -9 yards (J.Stewart). FUMBLES (J.Stewart) [J.Stewart], RECOVERED by LA-K.Turner at ARI 23. K.Turner to ARI 23 for…89% → 98%
- 4Q2 1:26LAM.Stafford pass short right to P.Nacua for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.86% → 94%
- 5Q3 1:21LAM.Stafford pass deep right to T.Higbee to ARI 21 for 21 yards (E.Jones; B.Baker). ARI-B.Baker was injured during the play.65% → 73%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
E.Demercado led the Cardinals at +5.4 EPA (2 carries for 29). M.Stafford led the Rams at +15.5 EPA (25 of 40 for 259).
Cardinals
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Brissett100% | 22/31 | 243 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -3.1 |
| M.Haack | 1/1 | 28 | +4.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Carter53% | 7 | 47% | 18 | -1.2 | |
| J.Brissett100% | 3 | 20% | 19 | +0.2 | |
| C.Kiner25% | 3 | 20% | 13 | +0.6 | |
| E.Demercado22% | 2 | 13% | 29 | +1.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.McBride95% | 8 | 29% | 7 | 65 | +1.5 | |
| M.Wilson93% | 8 | 29% | 5 | 99 | 1 | +4.8 |
| M.Carter53% | 3 | 11% | 3 | 21 | +1.0 | |
| E.Higgins60% | 3 | 11% | 3 | 28 | +2.9 | |
| C.Kiner25% | 3 | 11% | 2 | 15 | -0.4 | |
| J.Deguara11% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 15 | 1 | +2.4 |
| E.Demercado22% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 28 | +4.4 |
Defense J.Sweat 1 sack · Kicking C.Ryland 2/2 FG (long 56)
Rams
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Stafford96% | 25/40 | 259 | 4 | 1 | +15.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Corum33% | 13 | 42% | 59 | +0.7 | |
| K.Williams63% | 12 | 39% | 60 | -2.2 | |
| J.Garoppolo4% | 3 | 10% | -3 | 0.0 | |
| P.Nacua69% | 2 | 6% | 24 | +2.1 | |
| M.Stafford96% | 1 | 3% | 3 | -0.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.Nacua69% | 11 | 30% | 10 | 76 | 1 | +9.6 |
| C.Parkinson84% | 7 | 19% | 4 | 36 | 2 | +2.3 |
| T.Higbee64% | 6 | 16% | 5 | 91 | 1 | +8.1 |
| K.Williams63% | 5 | 14% | 3 | 21 | -1.4 | |
| T.Atwell13% | 3 | 8% | 1 | 19 | -0.7 | |
| X.Smith33% | 2 | 5% | 1 | 6 | +0.4 | |
| D.Allen71% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.4 | |
| B.Corum33% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 10 | +0.4 | |
| K.Mumpfield48% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.6 |
Defense D.Johnson 2 sacks, A.Witherspoon 1 INT, B.Young 1 sack, B.Fiske 1 sack · Kicking H.Mevis 3/3 FG (long 42)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Cardinals give up 69 yards a game to tight ends (30th), against a league average of 53. Rams' tight ends produce 69 (4th).
Deep middle is open
Cardinals are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.78 EPA per attempt. Rams send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Checkdowns go nowhere
Cardinals give up 36 yards a game to running backs (24th), against a league average of 32. Rams' running backs produce 21 (30th).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Rams create explosive plays on 12% of snaps (6th). Cardinals give them up at 11% (24th).
The Rams lead the series 29–21 since 1999 (they first met in 2002). Oct 18, 2026, at SoFi Stadium: the Cardinals won 18–16. Matthew Stafford started at quarterback for the Rams and Jacoby Brissett for the Cardinals; Sean McVay and Jonathan Gannon coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 6 | ARI 18 at LA 16 |
| 2025 · Wk 18 | ARI 20 at LA 37 |
| 2025 · Wk 14 | LA 45 at ARI 17 |
| 2024 · Wk 17 | ARI 9 at LA 13 |
| 2024 · Wk 2 | LA 10 at ARI 41 |
2025 records
| Cardinals | Rams | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3–14 | 12–5 |
| Division | 0–6 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 3–9 | 7–5 |
| Other conference | 0–5 | 5–0 |
| Home | 1–7 | 7–1 |
| Away | 2–7 | 5–4 |
| Last 5 | LLLLL | WWLLW |
| Streak | Lost 9 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 20.9 – 28.7 | 30.5 – 20.4 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Cardinals' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | LA off | Favors LA · Favors ARI | ARI def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.14#1 | +0.09#27 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 51%#1 | 49%#31 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.3#1 | 5.8#25 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 12%#6 | 11%#24 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.22#2 | +0.15#27 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 4%#3 | 5%#28 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.04#4 | -0.02#25 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.9#2 | 4.7#26 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 39%#21 | 46%#29 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 65%#7 | 66%#28 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 192#2 | 137#16 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 69#4 | 69#30 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.8#6 | 8.4#30 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 21#30 | 36#24 | 32 | |
Rams: EPA per throw
Cardinals: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.