2025
Week 18 · Sunday 8:20 PM ET · Acrisure Stadium
vs
Steelers offensevsRavens defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 18 games for Steelers, 17 for Ravens. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Steelers won 26–24 from as low as 12% (Q1 0:20, down 7–0). The Ravens had been 68% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 0:02: T.Loop 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right (39% → 100%).
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 0:02PITT.Loop 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Rightturning point39% → 100%
- 2Q4 0:21BALL.Jackson pass deep left to I.Likely to PIT 24 for 26 yards (J.Ramsey) [T.Watt].32% → 72%
- 3Q4 2:30BALL.Jackson pass deep left to Z.Flowers for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on PIT-J.Porter, Defensive Holding, declined.46% → 84%
- 4Q4 1:00PITA.Rodgers pass deep left to C.Austin for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.28% → 59%
- 5Q4 8:52BALL.Jackson pass deep middle to Z.Flowers for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.45% → 75%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
Z.Flowers led the Ravens at +10.6 EPA (4 catches for 138). A.Rodgers led the Steelers at +9.3 EPA (31 of 47 for 294).
Ravens
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L.Jackson100% | 11/18 | 238 | 3 | 1 | 3 | +8.7 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Henry71% | 20 | 74% | 126 | +1.0 | |
| L.Jackson100% | 4 | 15% | 9 | +0.1 | |
| K.Mitchell14% | 2 | 7% | 2 | -0.9 | |
| R.Ali16% | 1 | 4% | 0 | -2.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z.Flowers98% | 6 | 35% | 4 | 138 | 2 | +10.6 |
| M.Andrews59% | 3 | 18% | 2 | 14 | -1.0 | |
| D.Hopkins25% | 2 | 12% | 0 | 0 | -4.9 | |
| I.Likely49% | 2 | 12% | 2 | 32 | +2.4 | |
| D.Walker73% | 2 | 12% | 2 | 46 | 1 | +7.0 |
| D.Henry71% | 1 | 6% | 0 | 0 | -0.8 | |
| P.Ricard51% | 1 | 6% | 1 | 8 | +0.2 |
Defense T.Jones 1 sack, T.Robinson 1 sack · Kicking T.Loop 1/2 FG (long 40)
Steelers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Rodgers100% | 31/47 | 294 | 1 | 2 | +7.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Warren37% | 14 | 58% | 66 | -1.2 | |
| K.Gainwell67% | 5 | 21% | 10 | 1 | -2.6 |
| C.Heyward15% | 3 | 13% | 2 | 1 | -0.8 |
| A.Rodgers100% | 1 | 4% | 20 | +1.9 | |
| J.Smith44% | 1 | 4% | 2 | -0.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Gainwell67% | 9 | 20% | 8 | 64 | +2.4 | |
| M.Valdes-Scantling84% | 7 | 16% | 5 | 34 | +1.8 | |
| C.III49% | 7 | 16% | 3 | 55 | 1 | +2.5 |
| A.Thielen67% | 6 | 14% | 3 | 43 | +1.4 | |
| P.Freiermuth69% | 5 | 11% | 3 | 51 | +3.6 | |
| J.Warren37% | 5 | 11% | 5 | 33 | +2.4 | |
| J.Smith44% | 2 | 5% | 1 | 2 | -1.0 | |
| S.Miller21% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 9 | -0.3 | |
| C.Heyward15% | 1 | 2% | 1 | 3 | -0.1 |
Defense T.Watt 1 INT, A.Highsmith 1 sack, N.Herbig 1 sack, D.Harmon 1 sack · Kicking C.Boswell 2/2 FG (long 57)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Backs catch passes
Ravens give up 43 yards a game to running backs (30th), against a league average of 32. Steelers' running backs produce 48 (3rd).
Deep middle is open
Ravens are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.82 EPA per attempt. Steelers send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Field goals, not touchdowns
Steelers score a touchdown on 59% of red zone trips (15th). Ravens allow 53% (5th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Steelers succeed on 43% of plays (19th) against a defense that allows 44% (17th).
The Steelers lead the series 33–26 since 1999. They have won the last 2. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 18 | BAL 24 at PIT 26 |
| 2025 · Wk 14 | PIT 27 at BAL 22 |
| 2024 · Wk 19 · playoffs | PIT 14 at BAL 28 |
| 2024 · Wk 16 | PIT 17 at BAL 34 |
| 2024 · Wk 11 | BAL 16 at PIT 18 |
2025 records
| Ravens | Steelers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8–9 | 10–7 |
| Division | 3–3 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 5–7 | 8–4 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 2–3 |
| Home | 3–6 | 6–3 |
| Away | 5–3 | 4–4 |
| Last 5 | LWLWL | WWWLW |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 24.9 – 23.4 | 23.4 – 22.8 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Ravens' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | PIT off | Favors PIT · Favors BAL | BAL def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | 0.00#18 | +0.03#20 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 43%#19 | 44%#17 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.2#21 | 5.6#22 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#23 | 10%#21 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.01#21 | +0.08#21 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 6%#12 | 5%#31 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | 0.00#7 | -0.09#11 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.4#12 | 4.1#16 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 40%#17 | 39%#11 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 59%#15 | 53%#5 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 101#29 | 168#30 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 62#7 | 47#9 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.9#4 | 6.6#8 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 48#3 | 43#30 | 32 | |
Steelers: EPA per throw
Ravens: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.