2025
Week 18 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
vs
Falcons offensevsSaints defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Falcons, 17 for Saints. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Falcons won 19–17 and were favored the whole way, never below 56%. The biggest single swing came at Q4 3:24, 21 points for the Falcons.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 3:24NOT.Shough pass short left intended for S.Toure INTERCEPTED by D.Alford at ATL 14. D.Alford pushed ob at NO 27 for 59 yards (A.Estime).73% → 95%
- 2Q1 8:10ATLK.Cousins pass short right intended for K.Pitts INTERCEPTED by C.Granderson at NO 14. C.Granderson to NO 14 for no gain (K.Pitts).26% → 40%
- 3Q1 12:50NOT.Shough pass short right to J.Johnson to NO 38 for 19 yards (A.Terrell). FUMBLES (A.Terrell), RECOVERED by ATL-X.Watts at NO 44. X.Watts to NO 39…61% → 72%
- 4Q1 3:31NOK.Kroeger punt is BLOCKED by J.Robinson, RECOVERED by ATL-F.Franks at NO 8. F.Franks pushed ob at NO 5 for 3 yards (T.Hill).64% → 75%
- 5Q3 4:06NOT.Shough pass short right to T.Hill to ATL 9 for 13 yards (C.Henderson; D.Deablo).21% → 31%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
D.Pettis led the Saints at +2.4 EPA (5 catches for 60). D.London led the Falcons at +4.5 EPA (4 catches for 78).
Saints
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Shough100% | 23/35 | 259 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -2.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Estimé84% | 21 | 81% | 63 | -2.0 | |
| T.Shough100% | 3 | 12% | 34 | 1 | +2.4 |
| E.Hull12% | 2 | 8% | 11 | +0.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Jr.97% | 9 | 26% | 4 | 37 | -2.0 | |
| D.Pettis76% | 5 | 15% | 5 | 60 | +2.4 | |
| J.Johnson75% | 5 | 15% | 3 | 61 | +1.3 | |
| A.Estimé84% | 5 | 15% | 5 | 43 | +3.0 | |
| R.Bell53% | 4 | 12% | 2 | 23 | 1 | +1.2 |
| T.Hill34% | 3 | 9% | 3 | 32 | +1.7 | |
| S.Toure15% | 3 | 9% | 1 | 3 | -8.7 |
Defense C.Granderson 1.5 sacks and 1 INT, C.Young 1.5 sacks, C.Jordan 1 sack · Kicking C.Smyth 1/2 FG (long 29)
Falcons
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Cousins100% | 18/32 | 180 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -5.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Robinson84% | 15 | 60% | 33 | -5.7 | |
| T.Allgeier37% | 7 | 28% | 16 | -3.0 | |
| K.Cousins100% | 3 | 12% | 0 | -1.6 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Pitts92% | 9 | 30% | 6 | 58 | -0.7 | |
| D.London94% | 8 | 27% | 4 | 78 | 1 | +4.5 |
| D.Mooney83% | 7 | 23% | 3 | 20 | -0.4 | |
| B.Robinson84% | 3 | 10% | 3 | 10 | -0.9 | |
| T.Allgeier37% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 3 | -0.9 | |
| D.Sills71% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 11 | +0.0 |
Defense J.Jr. 2 sacks, D.Alford 1 INT, K.Street 1 sack, L.London 1 sack · Kicking Z.Gonzalez 4/4 FG (long 51)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Saints give up 7.4 targets a game to tight ends (17th), against a league average of 7.3. Falcons' tight ends produce 7.5 (14th).
Deep middle is open
Saints are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.24 EPA per attempt. Falcons send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Third downs favor Saints
Falcons convert 34% of third downs (30th). Saints allow 36% (4th).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Falcons create explosive plays on 10% of snaps (14th). Saints give them up at 9% (16th).
The Saints lead the series 32–23 since 1999. The Falcons have won the last 3. Oct 5, 2026, at Caesars Superdome: the Falcons won 45–24. Tyler Shough started at quarterback for the Saints and Michael Penix Jr. for the Falcons; Kellen Moore and Raheem Morris coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 4 | ATL 45 at NO 24 |
| 2025 · Wk 18 | NO 17 at ATL 19 |
| 2025 · Wk 12 | ATL 24 at NO 10 |
| 2024 · Wk 10 | ATL 17 at NO 20 |
| 2024 · Wk 4 | NO 24 at ATL 26 |
2025 records
| Saints | Falcons | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6–11 | 8–9 |
| Division | 3–3 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 4–8 | 7–5 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 1–4 |
| Home | 3–5 | 4–4 |
| Away | 3–6 | 4–5 |
| Last 5 | WWWWL | LWWWW |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Won 4 |
| Points a game | 18.0 – 22.5 | 20.8 – 23.6 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Saints' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | ATL off | Favors ATL · Favors NO | NO def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.02#23 | -0.06#10 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 44%#16 | 42%#7 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.5#13 | 5.0#7 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#14 | 9%#16 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.01#20 | -0.05#12 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#5 | 8%#7 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.06#20 | -0.12#4 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.6#7 | 3.9#9 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 34%#30 | 36%#4 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 61%#10 | 55%#11 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 107#28 | 122#6 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 57#11 | 51#13 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.5#14 | 7.4#17 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 54#2 | 24#3 | 32 | |
Falcons: EPA per throw
Saints: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.