2025
Week 2 · Thursday 8:15 PM ET · Lambeau Field
vs
Packers offensevsCommanders defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 18 games for Packers, 17 for Commanders. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Packers won 27–18 and were favored the whole way, never below 53%. The biggest single swing came at Q1 6:46, 12 points for the Packers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 6:46GBJ.Love pass deep right to T.Kraft to WAS 20 for 57 yards (Q.Martin).58% → 70%
- 2Q1 10:30WASJ.Love pass incomplete deep right to M.Golden (T.Amos).39% → 47%
- 3Q1 11:17WASJ.Love pass deep right to J.Reed for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. GB-J.Reed was injured during the play. PENALTY on GB-A.Belton,…37% → 45%
- 4Q1 5:10GBJ.Love scrambles right end to WAS 5 for 14 yards (J.Newton). GB-T.Kraft was injured during the play.66% → 73%
- 5Q1 11:09GBJ.Love pass short left to C.Brooks to WAS 33 for 16 yards (J.Reaves; B.Wagner).55% → 61%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
Z.Ertz led the Commanders at +4.7 EPA (6 catches for 64). T.Kraft led the Packers at +10.7 EPA (6 catches for 124).
Commanders
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Daniels100% | 24/42 | 200 | 2 | 4 | -8.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Ekeler52% | 8 | 42% | 17 | -0.9 | |
| J.Daniels100% | 7 | 37% | 17 | -2.2 | |
| J.Croskey-Merritt22% | 4 | 21% | 17 | +0.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.McLaurin91% | 9 | 23% | 5 | 48 | -0.1 | |
| Z.Ertz90% | 8 | 20% | 6 | 64 | 1 | +4.7 |
| D.Sr.88% | 8 | 20% | 7 | 44 | 1 | +1.5 |
| N.Brown39% | 4 | 10% | 1 | 9 | -2.1 | |
| A.Ekeler52% | 4 | 10% | 2 | 7 | -2.4 | |
| J.Lane52% | 4 | 10% | 1 | 2 | -4.3 | |
| L.McCaffrey23% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 19 | +2.3 | |
| B.Sinnott4% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 7 | +0.3 | |
| J.Croskey-Merritt22% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.8 |
Defense D.Armstrong 1 sack, V.Miller 0.5 sacks, J.Martin 0.5 sacks · Kicking M.Gay 1/3 FG (long 51)
Packers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Love100% | 19/31 | 292 | 2 | 2 | +6.7 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Jacobs78% | 23 | 77% | 84 | 1 | -2.0 |
| J.Love100% | 3 | 10% | 12 | +0.3 | |
| S.Williams16% | 2 | 7% | 24 | +1.8 | |
| M.Golden59% | 2 | 7% | 15 | +1.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Kraft91% | 7 | 26% | 6 | 124 | 1 | +10.7 |
| D.Wicks54% | 6 | 22% | 4 | 44 | +2.5 | |
| R.Doubs74% | 5 | 19% | 3 | 28 | 1 | +1.2 |
| C.Brooks19% | 4 | 15% | 3 | 27 | -1.5 | |
| L.Musgrave31% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 32 | +2.4 | |
| M.Golden59% | 2 | 7% | 0 | 0 | -3.5 | |
| M.Heath32% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 37 | +2.2 |
Defense R.Gary 1 sack, D.Wyatt 1 sack, M.Parsons 0.5 sacks, K.Brooks 0.5 sacks · Kicking B.McManus 2/3 FG (long 56)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Throw it
Packers gain +0.24 EPA per dropback (1st). Commanders allow +0.20 (30th).
Deep middle is open
Commanders are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.54 EPA per attempt. Packers send 6% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Commanders give up 6.7 targets a game to tight ends (10th), against a league average of 7.3. Packers' tight ends produce 5.6 (28th).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Packers gain 5.7 yards per play (9th). Commanders give up 6.1 (30th), with the league at 5.4.
The Packers lead the series 9–4 since 1999 (they first met in 2001). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 2 | WAS 18 at GB 27 |
| 2022 · Wk 7 | GB 21 at WAS 23 |
| 2021 · Wk 7 | WAS 10 at GB 24 |
| 2019 · Wk 14 | WAS 15 at GB 20 |
| 2018 · Wk 3 | GB 17 at WAS 31 |
2025 records
| Commanders | Packers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5–12 | 9–7–1 |
| Division | 3–3 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 3–9 | 7–4–1 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Home | 2–6 | 5–3 |
| Away | 3–6 | 4–4–1 |
| Last 5 | LWLLW | WLLLL |
| Streak | Won 1 | Lost 4 |
| Points a game | 20.9 – 26.5 | 23.0 – 21.2 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Commanders' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | GB off | Favors GB · Favors WAS | WAS def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.12#3 | +0.14#30 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 47%#4 | 48%#27 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.7#9 | 6.1#30 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 12%#3 | 11%#26 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.24#1 | +0.20#30 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#8 | 7%#12 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.07#22 | +0.03#28 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.1#21 | 4.7#28 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 48%#2 | 42%#22 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 60%#12 | 67%#30 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 150#13 | 163#27 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 48#22 | 61#26 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.6#28 | 6.7#10 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 27#20 | 33#21 | 32 | |
Packers: EPA per throw
Commanders: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.