2025
Week 3 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · FirstEnergy Stadium
vs
Packers offensevsBrowns defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 18 games for Packers, 17 for Browns. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Browns won 13–10 from as low as 4% (Q4 9:43, down 10–0). The Packers had been 75% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 0:27: B.McManus 43 yard field goal is BLOCKED (S.Harris), RECOVERED by CLE-G.Newsome at CLE 47 (17% → 52%).
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 0:27GBB.McManus 43 yard field goal is BLOCKED (S.Harris), RECOVERED by CLE-G.Newsome at CLE 47.turning point17% → 52%
- 2Q4 0:02CLEA.Szmyt 55 yard field goal is GOOD Penalty on GB-K.Nixon, Defensive Offside, declined.75% → 100%
- 3Q4 3:18GBJ.Love pass short left intended for D.Wicks INTERCEPTED by G.Delpit at GB 29. G.Delpit pushed ob at GB 4 for 25 yards (S.Rhyan).5% → 23%
- 4Q4 0:12CLEJ.Flacco pass short middle to D.Njoku to GB 37 for 8 yards (E.Williams).59% → 74%
- 5Q4 2:47GBJ.Love pass short right to T.Kraft to CLE 22 for 18 yards (D.Ward).76% → 85%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
R.Doubs led the Packers at +3.6 EPA (2 catches for 25). C.Tillman led the Browns at +2.2 EPA (3 catches for 26).
Packers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Love100% | 18/25 | 183 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -0.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Jacobs66% | 16 | 52% | 30 | -3.7 | |
| E.Wilson23% | 6 | 19% | 25 | +0.3 | |
| J.Love100% | 4 | 13% | 18 | +1.5 | |
| M.Golden71% | 3 | 10% | 9 | -0.5 | |
| S.Williams9% | 2 | 6% | -1 | -1.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Jacobs66% | 9 | 36% | 5 | 44 | 0.0 | |
| D.Wicks68% | 4 | 16% | 2 | 21 | -4.0 | |
| T.Kraft88% | 4 | 16% | 3 | 29 | +1.4 | |
| M.Golden71% | 4 | 16% | 4 | 52 | +3.9 | |
| J.FitzPatrick23% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 12 | 1 | +3.3 |
| R.Doubs89% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 25 | +3.6 |
Defense R.Gary 2 sacks, X.McKinney 1 INT · Kicking B.McManus 1/2 FG (long 39)
Browns
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Flacco100% | 21/36 | 142 | 1 | 2 | -8.7 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q.Judkins55% | 18 | 95% | 94 | 1 | +2.1 |
| D.Sampson8% | 1 | 5% | 2 | -1.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Njoku76% | 7 | 21% | 5 | 40 | +0.5 | |
| J.Jeudy83% | 5 | 15% | 1 | 17 | -0.2 | |
| J.Ford36% | 4 | 12% | 4 | 10 | -1.7 | |
| H.Jr.64% | 4 | 12% | 3 | 25 | +0.3 | |
| I.Bond65% | 4 | 12% | 2 | 16 | -2.7 | |
| C.Tillman74% | 3 | 9% | 3 | 26 | +2.2 | |
| J.Thrash18% | 3 | 9% | 2 | 7 | -0.6 | |
| Q.Judkins55% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 1 | -1.0 | |
| L.Wypler | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.3 |
Defense M.Collins 1.5 sacks, G.Delpit 1 INT, A.Wright 1 sack, C.Schwesinger 1 sack · Kicking A.Szmyt 2/2 FG (long 55)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Red zone touchdowns
Packers score a touchdown on 60% of red zone trips (12th). Browns allow 63% (22nd).
Deep middle is open
Browns are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.50 EPA per attempt. Packers send 6% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Browns give up 7.1 targets a game to tight ends (14th), against a league average of 7.3. Packers' tight ends produce 5.6 (28th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Packers succeed on 47% of plays (4th) against a defense that allows 40% (4th).
The Packers lead the series 5–2 since 1999 (they first met in 2001). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 3 | GB 10 at CLE 13 |
| 2021 · Wk 16 | CLE 22 at GB 24 |
| 2017 · Wk 14 · OT | GB 27 at CLE 21 |
| 2013 · Wk 7 | CLE 13 at GB 31 |
| 2009 · Wk 7 | GB 31 at CLE 3 |
2025 records
| Packers | Browns | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9–7–1 | 5–12 |
| Division | 4–2 | 2–4 |
| Conference | 7–4–1 | 4–8 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 1–4 |
| Home | 5–3 | 3–6 |
| Away | 4–4–1 | 2–6 |
| Last 5 | WLLLL | LLLWW |
| Streak | Lost 4 | Won 2 |
| Points a game | 23.0 – 21.2 | 16.4 – 22.3 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Packers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | GB off | Favors GB · Favors CLE | CLE def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.12#3 | -0.09#4 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 47%#4 | 40%#4 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.7#9 | 4.9#5 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 12%#3 | 9%#13 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.24#1 | -0.13#3 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#8 | 10%#3 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.07#22 | -0.07#15 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.1#21 | 4.2#17 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 48%#2 | 37%#8 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 60%#12 | 63%#22 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 150#13 | 110#1 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 48#22 | 52#16 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.6#28 | 7.1#14 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 27#20 | 27#8 | 32 | |
Packers: EPA per throw
Browns: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.