2025
Week 4 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · Allegiant Stadium
vs
Bears offensevsRaiders defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 19 games for Bears, 17 for Raiders. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Bears won 25–24 from as low as 14% (Q4 8:16, down 21–19). The Raiders had been 52% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 0:38: D.Carlson 54 yard field goal is BLOCKED (J.Blackwell) (45% → 91%).
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 0:38CHID.Carlson 54 yard field goal is BLOCKED (J.Blackwell)turning point45% → 91%
- 2Q2 4:15LVA.Jeanty left guard for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN.59% → 77%
- 3Q4 12:27LVC.Williams FUMBLES (Aborted) at LV 22, and recovers at LV 33.56% → 72%
- 4Q4 2:42CHIC.Williams pass short left to R.Odunze to LV 13 for 17 yards (J.Chinn).32% → 47%
- 5Q4 1:45CHID.Swift up the middle to LV 2 for 5 yards (M.Koonce; J.Chinn).41% → 55%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
O.Zaccheaus led the Bears at +4.3 EPA (5 catches for 41). A.Jeanty led the Raiders at +2.4 EPA (21 carries for 138).
Bears
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Williams100% | 22/37 | 212 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Swift66% | 14 | 54% | 38 | 1 | -0.9 |
| C.Williams100% | 8 | 31% | 13 | -5.6 | |
| K.Monangai28% | 4 | 15% | 18 | -0.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Kmet100% | 9 | 25% | 3 | 46 | -1.3 | |
| R.Odunze76% | 8 | 22% | 4 | 69 | 1 | +0.0 |
| O.Zaccheaus60% | 6 | 17% | 5 | 41 | +4.3 | |
| D.Swift66% | 6 | 17% | 4 | 22 | +0.1 | |
| D.Moore76% | 5 | 14% | 4 | 38 | +0.9 | |
| L.III28% | 2 | 6% | 2 | -4 | -2.4 |
Defense K.Byard 2 INT, T.Stevenson 1 INT · Kicking C.Santos 4/4 FG (long 52)
Raiders
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G.Smith100% | 14/21 | 117 | 2 | 3 | -9.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Jeanty85% | 21 | 68% | 138 | 1 | -1.7 |
| G.Smith100% | 4 | 13% | 31 | +0.2 | |
| R.Mostert15% | 4 | 13% | 62 | +2.1 | |
| T.Tucker98% | 2 | 6% | 9 | -1.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Meyers98% | 7 | 35% | 4 | 30 | -15.0 | |
| B.Bowers77% | 6 | 30% | 5 | 46 | +1.8 | |
| T.Tucker98% | 2 | 10% | 2 | 13 | +0.8 | |
| A.Jeanty85% | 2 | 10% | 2 | 17 | 2 | +4.1 |
| D.Jr.60% | 2 | 10% | 0 | 0 | -1.2 | |
| R.Mostert15% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 11 | 0.0 |
Defense M.Crosby 1 INT, T.Wilson 1 sack · Kicking D.Carlson 1/2 FG (long 29)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Third downs favor Bears
Bears convert 44% of third downs (6th). Raiders allow 47% (31st).
Deep middle is open
Raiders are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.56 EPA per attempt. Bears send 6% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Checkdowns go nowhere
Raiders give up 28 yards a game to running backs (10th), against a league average of 32. Bears' running backs produce 29 (17th).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Bears gain 5.7 yards per play (10th). Raiders give up 5.2 (11th), with the league at 5.4.
The Bears lead the series 6–3 since 1999. They have won the last 3. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 4 | CHI 25 at LV 24 |
| 2023 · Wk 7 | LV 12 at CHI 30 |
| 2021 · Wk 5 | CHI 20 at LV 9 |
| 2019 · Wk 5 | CHI 21 at LV 24 |
| 2015 · Wk 4 | LV 20 at CHI 22 |
2025 records
| Bears | Raiders | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11–6 | 3–14 |
| Division | 2–4 | 1–5 |
| Conference | 7–5 | 3–9 |
| Other conference | 4–1 | 0–5 |
| Home | 6–2 | 2–7 |
| Away | 5–4 | 1–7 |
| Last 5 | LWWLL | LLLLW |
| Streak | Lost 2 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 25.9 – 24.4 | 14.2 – 25.4 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Bears' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | CHI off | Favors CHI · Favors LV | LV def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.07#8 | +0.03#19 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 45%#11 | 45%#21 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.7#10 | 5.2#11 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 12%#5 | 8%#7 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.09#9 | +0.08#22 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 4%#2 | 7%#18 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | 0.00#6 | -0.07#14 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.5#10 | 4.0#10 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 44%#6 | 47%#31 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 58%#17 | 59%#18 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 143#16 | 147#21 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 70#3 | 39#3 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.9#5 | 5.7#3 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 29#17 | 28#10 | 32 | |
Bears: EPA per throw
Raiders: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.