2025
Week 4 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · Allegiant Stadium
vs
Raiders offensevsBears defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Raiders, 19 for Bears. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Bears won 25–24 from as low as 14% (Q4 8:16, down 21–19). The Raiders had been 52% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 0:38: D.Carlson 54 yard field goal is BLOCKED (J.Blackwell) (45% → 91%).
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 0:38CHID.Carlson 54 yard field goal is BLOCKED (J.Blackwell)turning point45% → 91%
- 2Q2 4:15LVA.Jeanty left guard for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN.59% → 77%
- 3Q4 12:27LVC.Williams FUMBLES (Aborted) at LV 22, and recovers at LV 33.56% → 72%
- 4Q4 2:42CHIC.Williams pass short left to R.Odunze to LV 13 for 17 yards (J.Chinn).32% → 47%
- 5Q4 1:45CHID.Swift up the middle to LV 2 for 5 yards (M.Koonce; J.Chinn).41% → 55%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
O.Zaccheaus led the Bears at +4.3 EPA (5 catches for 41). A.Jeanty led the Raiders at +2.4 EPA (21 carries for 138).
Bears
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Williams100% | 22/37 | 212 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Swift66% | 14 | 54% | 38 | 1 | -0.9 |
| C.Williams100% | 8 | 31% | 13 | -5.6 | |
| K.Monangai28% | 4 | 15% | 18 | -0.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Kmet100% | 9 | 25% | 3 | 46 | -1.3 | |
| R.Odunze76% | 8 | 22% | 4 | 69 | 1 | +0.0 |
| O.Zaccheaus60% | 6 | 17% | 5 | 41 | +4.3 | |
| D.Swift66% | 6 | 17% | 4 | 22 | +0.1 | |
| D.Moore76% | 5 | 14% | 4 | 38 | +0.9 | |
| L.III28% | 2 | 6% | 2 | -4 | -2.4 |
Defense K.Byard 2 INT, T.Stevenson 1 INT · Kicking C.Santos 4/4 FG (long 52)
Raiders
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G.Smith100% | 14/21 | 117 | 2 | 3 | -9.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Jeanty85% | 21 | 68% | 138 | 1 | -1.7 |
| G.Smith100% | 4 | 13% | 31 | +0.2 | |
| R.Mostert15% | 4 | 13% | 62 | +2.1 | |
| T.Tucker98% | 2 | 6% | 9 | -1.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Meyers98% | 7 | 35% | 4 | 30 | -15.0 | |
| B.Bowers77% | 6 | 30% | 5 | 46 | +1.8 | |
| T.Tucker98% | 2 | 10% | 2 | 13 | +0.8 | |
| A.Jeanty85% | 2 | 10% | 2 | 17 | 2 | +4.1 |
| D.Jr.60% | 2 | 10% | 0 | 0 | -1.2 | |
| R.Mostert15% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 11 | 0.0 |
Defense M.Crosby 1 INT, T.Wilson 1 sack · Kicking D.Carlson 1/2 FG (long 29)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Bears give up 7.4 targets a game to tight ends (18th), against a league average of 7.3. Raiders' tight ends produce 9.2 (3rd).
Deep middle is open
Bears are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.93 EPA per attempt. Raiders send 2% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Checkdowns go nowhere
Bears give up 27 yards a game to running backs (6th), against a league average of 32. Raiders' running backs produce 27 (21st).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Raiders create explosive plays on 7% of snaps (31st). Bears give them up at 12% (29th).
The Bears lead the series 6–3 since 1999. They have won the last 3. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 4 | CHI 25 at LV 24 |
| 2023 · Wk 7 | LV 12 at CHI 30 |
| 2021 · Wk 5 | CHI 20 at LV 9 |
| 2019 · Wk 5 | CHI 21 at LV 24 |
| 2015 · Wk 4 | LV 20 at CHI 22 |
2025 records
| Bears | Raiders | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11–6 | 3–14 |
| Division | 2–4 | 1–5 |
| Conference | 7–5 | 3–9 |
| Other conference | 4–1 | 0–5 |
| Home | 6–2 | 2–7 |
| Away | 5–4 | 1–7 |
| Last 5 | LWWLL | LLLLW |
| Streak | Lost 2 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 25.9 – 24.4 | 14.2 – 25.4 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Bears' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | LV off | Favors LV · Favors CHI | CHI def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.22#32 | +0.03#21 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 38%#30 | 46%#25 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 4.4#31 | 5.9#27 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 7%#31 | 12%#29 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.19#29 | +0.05#19 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 11%#32 | 6%#23 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.30#32 | -0.03#19 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.5#32 | 4.7#29 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 35%#28 | 41%#15 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 49%#28 | 59%#17 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 100#30 | 163#26 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 68#5 | 52#14 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 9.2#3 | 7.4#18 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 27#21 | 27#6 | 32 | |
Raiders: EPA per throw
Bears: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.