2025
Week 6 · Monday 8:15 PM ET · FedExField
vs
Commanders offensevsBears defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Commanders, 19 for Bears. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Bears won 25–24 from as low as 11% (Q4 11:27, down 24–16). The Commanders had been 71% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 1:27: D.Swift right end to WAS 31 for 10 yards (J.Reaves) (48% → 58%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 0:03, 40 points for the Bears.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 0:03CHIJ.Moody 38 yard field goal is GOOD60% → 100%
- 2Q4 3:10CHIT.J.Daniels FUMBLES (Aborted) at CHI 45, RECOVERED by CHI-N.Wright at CHI 44.14% → 40%
- 3Q4 10:36CHIC.Williams pass short left to D.Swift for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.11% → 32%
- 4Q3 3:03WASJ.Daniels pass deep left to L.McCaffrey for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.44% → 64%
- 5Q1 6:17CHIJ.Daniels pass deep left intended for D.Samuel INTERCEPTED by J.Brisker at CHI 2. J.Brisker to CHI 34 for 32 yards (J.Daniels).25% → 42%
- ★Q4 1:27CHID.Swift right end to WAS 31 for 10 yards (J.Reaves).turning point48% → 58%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
D.Swift led the Bears at +12.3 EPA (14 carries for 108). Z.Ertz led the Commanders at +5.1 EPA (6 catches for 43).
Bears
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Williams100% | 17/29 | 252 | 1 | 3 | +3.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Swift56% | 14 | 52% | 108 | +6.2 | |
| K.Monangai34% | 5 | 19% | 19 | -0.5 | |
| C.Williams100% | 4 | 15% | 3 | 1 | -0.8 |
| D.Moore94% | 2 | 7% | 10 | +0.8 | |
| O.Zaccheaus84% | 1 | 4% | 4 | -0.2 | |
| R.Johnson5% | 1 | 4% | 6 | +0.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O.Zaccheaus84% | 6 | 21% | 2 | 24 | -2.1 | |
| D.Moore94% | 5 | 17% | 3 | 42 | +1.9 | |
| R.Odunze97% | 5 | 17% | 2 | 32 | -2.5 | |
| L.III23% | 4 | 14% | 4 | 51 | +2.7 | |
| D.Swift56% | 3 | 10% | 2 | 67 | 1 | +6.1 |
| C.Loveland42% | 3 | 10% | 2 | 11 | +0.1 | |
| C.Kmet52% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 0 | -1.1 | |
| K.Monangai34% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 25 | +1.7 |
Defense J.Brisker 1 INT, G.Sr. 1.5 sacks, C.Williams 1 sack, D.Robinson 0.5 sacks · Kicking J.Moody 4/5 FG (long 48)
Commanders
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Daniels100% | 19/26 | 211 | 3 | 1 | 3 | +6.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Croskey-Merritt66% | 17 | 55% | 61 | -6.7 | |
| J.Daniels100% | 10 | 32% | 52 | -2.8 | |
| J.McNichols32% | 2 | 6% | 5 | -0.3 | |
| D.Sr.72% | 1 | 3% | -1 | -0.7 | |
| J.Lane42% | 1 | 3% | 7 | +0.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z.Ertz60% | 6 | 25% | 6 | 43 | 1 | +5.1 |
| C.Moore68% | 5 | 21% | 3 | 46 | 1 | +3.5 |
| D.Sr.72% | 5 | 21% | 4 | 15 | -5.2 | |
| J.McNichols32% | 4 | 17% | 3 | 30 | +3.3 | |
| J.Lane42% | 2 | 8% | 1 | 37 | +2.1 | |
| L.McCaffrey38% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 33 | 1 | +3.5 |
| J.Croskey-Merritt66% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 7 | +0.2 |
Defense F.Luvu 1 sack, J.Reaves 1 sack, V.Miller 0.5 sacks, D.Armstrong 0.5 sacks · Kicking M.Gay 1/2 FG (long 53)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Ground game edge
Commanders average 4.5 yards per carry (9th). Bears allow 4.7 (29th).
Deep middle is open
Bears are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.93 EPA per attempt. Commanders send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Checkdowns go nowhere
Bears give up 27 yards a game to running backs (6th), against a league average of 32. Commanders' running backs produce 20 (31st).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Commanders average +0.01 EPA per play (17th). Bears allow +0.03 (21st). League average is +0.01.
The Commanders lead the series 10–5 since 1999. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 6 | CHI 25 at WAS 24 |
| 2024 · Wk 8 | CHI 15 at WAS 18 |
| 2023 · Wk 5 | CHI 40 at WAS 20 |
| 2022 · Wk 6 | WAS 12 at CHI 7 |
| 2019 · Wk 3 | CHI 31 at WAS 15 |
2025 records
| Bears | Commanders | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11–6 | 5–12 |
| Division | 2–4 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 7–5 | 3–9 |
| Other conference | 4–1 | 2–3 |
| Home | 6–2 | 2–6 |
| Away | 5–4 | 3–6 |
| Last 5 | LWWLL | LWLLW |
| Streak | Lost 2 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 25.9 – 24.4 | 20.9 – 26.5 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Bears' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | WAS off | Favors WAS · Favors CHI | CHI def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.01#17 | +0.03#21 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 46%#9 | 46%#25 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.6#12 | 5.9#27 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#11 | 12%#29 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.01#17 | +0.05#19 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 7%#20 | 6%#23 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.04#11 | -0.03#19 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.5#9 | 4.7#29 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 39%#22 | 41%#15 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 67%#6 | 59%#17 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 133#18 | 163#26 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 43#24 | 52#14 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.1#22 | 7.4#18 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 20#31 | 27#6 | 32 | |
Commanders: EPA per throw
Bears: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.