2025
Week 7 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · U.S. Bank Stadium
vs
Vikings offensevsEagles defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Vikings, 18 for Eagles. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Eagles won 28–22 and were favored the whole way, never below 56%. The biggest single swing came at Q2 13:35, 15 points for the Eagles.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 13:35MINC.Wentz pass short middle intended for J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by J.Hunt [J.Carter] at MIN 42. J.Hunt for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.69% → 84%
- 2Q1 7:07PHIJ.Hurts pass deep left to A.Brown for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.58% → 72%
- 3Q3 8:17PHIF.J.Hurts pass deep middle to D.Smith for 79 yards, TOUCHDOWN.77% → 90%
- 4Q4 14:19PHIJ.Elliott 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right18% → 28%
- 5Q4 10:49MINC.Wentz sacked at PHI 17 for -7 yards (M.Ojomo).62% → 70%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Hurts led the Eagles at +18.4 EPA (19 of 23 for 326). J.Addison led the Vikings at +7.2 EPA (9 catches for 128).
Eagles
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Hurts100% | 19/23 | 326 | 3 | 3 | +18.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Barkley78% | 18 | 78% | 44 | -7.9 | |
| J.Hurts100% | 4 | 17% | -10 | -0.5 | |
| T.Bigsby8% | 1 | 4% | 11 | +1.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Smith88% | 11 | 48% | 9 | 183 | 1 | +10.2 |
| A.Brown92% | 6 | 26% | 4 | 121 | 2 | +14.5 |
| D.Goedert98% | 3 | 13% | 3 | 18 | -0.4 | |
| S.Barkley78% | 1 | 4% | 1 | -2 | -1.2 | |
| T.Bigsby8% | 1 | 4% | 1 | -1 | -0.9 | |
| W.Shipley16% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 7 | -0.7 |
Defense J.Hunt 1 INT, A.Mukuba 1 INT, J.Uche 1 sack, M.Ojomo 1 sack · Kicking J.Elliott 0/1 FG
Vikings
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Wentz100% | 26/42 | 313 | 2 | 2 | -2.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Mason77% | 15 | 65% | 57 | 1 | -1.0 |
| C.Wentz100% | 4 | 17% | 28 | -1.1 | |
| Z.Scott13% | 4 | 17% | 4 | -1.6 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Addison93% | 12 | 30% | 9 | 128 | +7.2 | |
| J.Jefferson99% | 10 | 25% | 5 | 79 | -3.6 | |
| T.Hockenson83% | 9 | 23% | 6 | 43 | -2.4 | |
| J.Nailor59% | 4 | 10% | 2 | 37 | +1.1 | |
| A.Thielen12% | 2 | 5% | 1 | 10 | +1.3 | |
| C.Ham17% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 5 | +0.1 | |
| J.Oliver46% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 9 | +0.8 | |
| Z.Scott13% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 2 | -0.5 |
Defense E.Wilson 1.5 sacks, J.Allen 0.5 sacks, J.Metellus 0.5 sacks, D.Turner 0.5 sacks · Kicking W.Reichard 5/5 FG (long 59)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Ground game edge
Vikings average 4.4 yards per carry (11th). Eagles allow 4.1 (12th).
Deep middle is open
Eagles are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.93 EPA per attempt. Vikings send 2% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Eagles give up 29 yards a game to tight ends (2nd), against a league average of 53. Vikings' tight ends produce 38 (29th).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Vikings create explosive plays on 10% of snaps (13th). Eagles give them up at 9% (18th).
The Eagles lead the series 10–4 since 1999 (they first met in 2001). They have won the last 3. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 7 | PHI 28 at MIN 22 |
| 2023 · Wk 2 | MIN 28 at PHI 34 |
| 2022 · Wk 2 | MIN 7 at PHI 24 |
| 2019 · Wk 6 | PHI 20 at MIN 38 |
| 2018 · Wk 5 | MIN 23 at PHI 21 |
2025 records
| Eagles | Vikings | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11–6 | 9–8 |
| Division | 3–3 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 8–4 | 7–5 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 2–3 |
| Home | 5–3 | 4–4 |
| Away | 6–3 | 5–4 |
| Last 5 | LWWWL | WWWWW |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Won 5 |
| Points a game | 22.3 – 19.1 | 20.2 – 19.6 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Eagles' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | MIN off | Favors MIN · Favors PHI | PHI def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.12#28 | -0.07#9 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 43%#23 | 42%#10 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.0#28 | 5.1#10 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#13 | 9%#18 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.19#30 | -0.11#8 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 11%#31 | 7%#14 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.05#18 | -0.10#6 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.4#11 | 4.1#12 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 33%#31 | 43%#23 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 60%#13 | 55%#9 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 129#22 | 138#17 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 38#29 | 29#2 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.5#29 | 6.2#6 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 22#28 | 41#28 | 32 | |
Vikings: EPA per throw
Eagles: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.