2025
Week 8 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Bank of America Stadium
vs
Panthers offensevsBills defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 18 games for Panthers, 19 for Bills. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Bills won 40–9 and were favored the whole way, never below 74%. The biggest single swing came at Q1 3:51, 8 points for the Bills.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 3:51BUFA.Dalton scrambles right end to BUF 20 for 1 yard (G.Rousseau). FUMBLES (G.Rousseau), RECOVERED by BUF-C.Benford at BUF 11. C.Benford to BUF 17…75% → 83%
- 2Q2 1:58BUFA.Dalton pass short left intended for J.Coker INTERCEPTED by A.Epenesa at CAR 25. A.Epenesa to CAR 1 for 24 yards (C.Hubbard).90% → 97%
- 3Q1 13:39BUFA.Dalton sacked at CAR 26 for -9 yards (E.Oliver).76% → 83%
- 4Q1 2:13BUFJ.Allen pass deep left to D.Kincaid to CAR 30 for 23 yards (T.Moehrig).82% → 88%
- 5Q1 12:57CARS.Martin punts 54 yards to BUF 20 K.Shakir ran ob at BUF 24 for 4 yards (J.Sanders).18% → 22%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Cook led the Bills at +15.4 EPA (19 carries for 216). T.McMillan led the Panthers at +4.8 EPA (7 catches for 99).
Bills
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Allen83% | 12/19 | 163 | 1 | 2 | +7.7 | |
| M.Trubisky17% | 2/4 | 22 | +0.7 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Cook44% | 19 | 54% | 216 | 2 | +15.4 |
| R.Davis24% | 9 | 26% | 16 | -3.8 | |
| T.Johnson32% | 4 | 11% | 6 | -1.0 | |
| J.Allen83% | 3 | 9% | 7 | 2 | +1.7 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Shakir48% | 7 | 30% | 6 | 88 | 1 | +6.4 |
| E.Moore46% | 4 | 17% | 1 | 14 | -0.3 | |
| K.Coleman73% | 4 | 17% | 3 | 30 | +2.3 | |
| D.Kincaid22% | 3 | 13% | 1 | 23 | +1.5 | |
| J.Hawes56% | 3 | 13% | 2 | 15 | +1.6 | |
| D.Knox43% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 15 | +1.3 | |
| R.Davis24% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.6 |
Defense A.Epenesa 1 sack and 1 INT, M.Hoecht 1.5 sacks, J.Phillips 1 sack, J.Bosa 1 sack · Kicking M.Prater 2/2 FG (long 45)
Panthers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Dalton100% | 16/24 | 175 | 1 | 7 | -12.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Hubbard57% | 12 | 43% | 34 | 1 | -2.7 |
| R.Dowdle36% | 8 | 29% | 54 | +1.6 | |
| T.Etienne7% | 4 | 14% | 16 | -0.8 | |
| A.Dalton100% | 2 | 7% | 1 | -5.7 | |
| J.Jr.13% | 2 | 7% | 9 | +0.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.McMillan93% | 10 | 43% | 7 | 99 | +4.8 | |
| J.Coker66% | 4 | 17% | 3 | 36 | -2.8 | |
| X.Legette89% | 3 | 13% | 2 | 17 | +3.0 | |
| J.Sanders54% | 3 | 13% | 3 | 19 | -0.4 | |
| C.Hubbard57% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 | |
| T.Tremble46% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 4 | +0.0 | |
| J.Jr.13% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -1.3 |
Defense T.Wallace 1 sack, A.Robinson 0.5 sacks, N.Scourton 0.5 sacks · Kicking R.Fitzgerald 1/2 FG (long 48)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Ground game edge
Panthers average 4.3 yards per carry (14th). Bills allow 4.9 (30th).
Deep middle is open
Bills are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.74 EPA per attempt. Panthers send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Bills give up 27 yards a game to tight ends (1st), against a league average of 53. Panthers' tight ends produce 37 (30th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Panthers succeed on 43% of plays (18th) against a defense that allows 43% (13th).
The Bills lead the series 5–2 since 1999 (they first met in 2001). They have won the last 2. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 8 | BUF 40 at CAR 9 |
| 2021 · Wk 15 | CAR 14 at BUF 31 |
| 2017 · Wk 2 | BUF 3 at CAR 9 |
| 2013 · Wk 2 | CAR 23 at BUF 24 |
| 2009 · Wk 7 | BUF 20 at CAR 9 |
2025 records
| Bills | Panthers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12–5 | 8–9 |
| Division | 4–2 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 9–3 | 6–6 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 2–3 |
| Home | 7–2 | 5–3 |
| Away | 5–3 | 3–6 |
| Last 5 | WWWLW | WLWLL |
| Streak | Won 1 | Lost 2 |
| Points a game | 28.3 – 21.5 | 18.3 – 22.4 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Bills' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | CAR off | Favors CAR · Favors BUF | BUF def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.04#26 | -0.01#13 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 43%#18 | 43%#13 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.1#26 | 5.4#16 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#24 | 11%#27 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.06#25 | -0.09#9 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 6%#13 | 6%#20 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.05#17 | +0.04#29 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.3#14 | 4.9#30 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 37%#25 | 43%#24 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 57%#20 | 59%#19 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 131#19 | 122#7 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 37#30 | 27#1 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.8#27 | 4.6#1 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 31#14 | 28#9 | 32 | |
Panthers: EPA per throw
Bills: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.