2025
Week 9 · Monday 8:15 PM ET · AT&T Stadium
vs
Cowboys offensevsCardinals defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Cowboys, 17 for Cardinals. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Cardinals won 27–17; their low point was 28% at Q1 11:57. The Cowboys had been 61% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q1 3:32: J.Williams left end to DAL 26 for 3 yards (Ma.Wilson; Z.Collins) (50% → 50%). The biggest single swing came at Q2 4:04, 14 points for the Cowboys.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 4:04DALP.O'Donnell punt is BLOCKED by S.Williams, RECOVERED by DAL-M.Kneeland at ARI -8. TOUCHDOWN.26% → 39%
- 2Q1 0:29ARIJ.Brissett pass deep middle to M.Harrison to DAL 31 for 20 yards (D.Bland; M.Bell) [O.Odighizuwa].55% → 65%
- 3Q1 10:37ARID.Prescott sacked at ARI 11 for -7 yards (J.Sweat).35% → 43%
- 4Q3 14:53ARIJ.Brissett pass deep middle to Mi.Wilson pushed ob at DAL 24 for 50 yards (D.Bland).75% → 83%
- 5Q1 1:18DALK.J.Brissett sacked at ARI 49 for -10 yards (D.Ezeiruaku).37% → 45%
- ★Q1 3:32ARIJ.Williams left end to DAL 26 for 3 yards (Ma.Wilson; Z.Collins).turning point50% → 50%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
M.Jr. led the Cardinals at +7.9 EPA (7 catches for 96). G.Pickens led the Cowboys at +3.3 EPA (6 catches for 79).
Cardinals
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Brissett100% | 21/31 | 261 | 2 | 5 | +7.0 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E.Demercado40% | 14 | 48% | 79 | +0.3 | |
| B.Knight57% | 9 | 31% | 27 | -1.1 | |
| J.Brissett100% | 5 | 17% | 4 | 1 | +0.1 |
| G.Dortch21% | 1 | 3% | 9 | +0.9 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Jr.72% | 10 | 34% | 7 | 96 | 1 | +7.9 |
| T.McBride88% | 9 | 31% | 5 | 55 | 1 | +2.3 |
| M.Wilson72% | 4 | 14% | 3 | 61 | +3.9 | |
| E.Higgins40% | 3 | 10% | 3 | 30 | +1.8 | |
| B.Knight57% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 20 | +1.9 | |
| E.Demercado40% | 1 | 3% | 1 | -1 | -0.9 |
Defense C.Campbell 2 sacks, J.Sweat 2 sacks, D.Burke 1 INT, W.Nolen 1 sack · Kicking C.Ryland 2/2 FG (long 48)
Cowboys
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Prescott100% | 24/39 | 250 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -4.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Williams87% | 15 | 71% | 83 | +1.9 | |
| D.Prescott100% | 4 | 19% | 34 | +1.8 | |
| M.Davis7% | 1 | 5% | 3 | -0.2 | |
| K.Turpin19% | 1 | 5% | 3 | -0.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Lamb88% | 12 | 33% | 7 | 85 | +0.2 | |
| G.Pickens91% | 9 | 25% | 6 | 79 | +3.3 | |
| J.Ferguson90% | 7 | 19% | 5 | 50 | -3.4 | |
| K.Turpin19% | 3 | 8% | 2 | 10 | -1.9 | |
| L.Schoonmaker19% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 14 | +0.8 | |
| R.Flournoy67% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 12 | 1 | +2.5 |
| J.Williams87% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 0 | -3.8 |
Defense J.Clowney 1 sack, D.Jr. 1 sack, K.Clark 1 sack, R.Steward 1 sack · Kicking B.Aubrey 1/2 FG (long 26)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Clean pockets
Cowboys take a sack on 5% of dropbacks (6th). Cardinals get home on 5% (28th). League average is 7%.
Deep middle is open
Cardinals are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.78 EPA per attempt. Cowboys send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Checkdowns go nowhere
Cardinals give up 36 yards a game to running backs (24th), against a league average of 32. Cowboys' running backs produce 18 (32nd).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Cowboys create explosive plays on 9% of snaps (17th). Cardinals give them up at 11% (24th).
The Cardinals lead the series 13–7 since 1999. They have won the last 5. Nov 1, 2026, at AT&T Stadium: the Cardinals won 33–30 in overtime. Dak Prescott started at quarterback for the Cowboys and Jacoby Brissett for the Cardinals; Brian Schottenheimer and Jonathan Gannon coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 8 · OT | ARI 33 at DAL 30 |
| 2025 · Wk 9 | ARI 27 at DAL 17 |
| 2023 · Wk 3 | DAL 16 at ARI 28 |
| 2021 · Wk 17 | ARI 25 at DAL 22 |
| 2020 · Wk 6 | ARI 38 at DAL 10 |
2025 records
| Cardinals | Cowboys | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3–14 | 7–9–1 |
| Division | 0–6 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 3–9 | 4–7–1 |
| Other conference | 0–5 | 3–2 |
| Home | 1–7 | 4–3–1 |
| Away | 2–7 | 3–6 |
| Last 5 | LLLLL | LLLWL |
| Streak | Lost 9 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 20.9 – 28.7 | 27.7 – 30.1 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Cardinals' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | DAL off | Favors DAL · Favors ARI | ARI def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.10#4 | +0.09#27 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 47%#5 | 49%#31 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.1#2 | 5.8#25 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#17 | 11%#24 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.16#6 | +0.15#27 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#6 | 5%#28 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | 0.00#8 | -0.02#25 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.6#6 | 4.7#26 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 43%#8 | 46%#29 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 58%#18 | 66%#28 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 212#1 | 137#16 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 48#20 | 69#30 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.1#10 | 8.4#30 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 18#32 | 36#24 | 32 | |
Cowboys: EPA per throw
Cardinals: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.