2025
Week 9 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Lambeau Field
vs
Packers offensevsPanthers defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 18 games for Packers, 18 for Panthers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Panthers won 16–13 from as low as 8% (Q1 7:28, tied 0–0). The Packers had been 87% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 2:28: R.Dowdle left guard to CAR 31 for 2 yards (E.Cooper; K.Brooks) (46% → 50%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 0:01, 33 points for the Panthers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 0:01CARR.Fitzgerald 49 yard field goal is GOOD67% → 100%
- 2Q4 0:46CARR.Dowdle right guard to GB 31 for 19 yards (X.McKinney).57% → 75%
- 3Q4 11:00GBJ.Love pass incomplete short right to R.Doubs [N.Scourton].58% → 76%
- 4Q3 10:38GBB.McManus 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left25% → 40%
- 5Q3 6:42GBJ.Love pass deep middle intended for C.Watson INTERCEPTED by T.Moehrig [D.Brown] at CAR 26. T.Moehrig ran ob at GB 38 for 36 yards (E.Wilson).33% → 47%
- ★Q4 2:28CARR.Dowdle left guard to CAR 31 for 2 yards (E.Cooper; K.Brooks).turning point46% → 50%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
R.Dowdle led the Panthers at +4.3 EPA (25 carries for 130). J.Love led the Packers at +5.4 EPA (26 of 37 for 273).
Panthers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Young100% | 11/20 | 102 | 1 | 1 | -3.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Dowdle72% | 25 | 76% | 130 | 2 | +4.2 |
| C.Hubbard22% | 5 | 15% | 17 | -0.3 | |
| B.Young100% | 2 | 6% | 9 | +3.6 | |
| J.Jr.24% | 1 | 3% | 7 | +0.9 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.McMillan84% | 6 | 32% | 4 | 46 | +2.3 | |
| R.Dowdle72% | 3 | 16% | 2 | 11 | +0.1 | |
| X.Legette55% | 3 | 16% | 1 | 22 | -4.2 | |
| J.Jr.24% | 2 | 11% | 1 | 1 | -1.3 | |
| C.Hubbard22% | 1 | 5% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 | |
| T.Tremble55% | 1 | 5% | 0 | 0 | -0.3 | |
| B.Tremayne26% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 8 | +0.1 | |
| J.Sanders50% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 5 | +0.2 | |
| J.Coker66% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 9 | +0.7 |
Defense T.Moehrig 1 INT, T.Wharton 1 sack · Kicking R.Fitzgerald 1/1 FG (long 49)
Packers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Love100% | 26/37 | 273 | 1 | 1 | +5.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Jacobs58% | 17 | 68% | 87 | 1 | +4.0 |
| E.Wilson32% | 6 | 24% | 16 | -1.4 | |
| J.Love100% | 1 | 4% | 1 | -0.5 | |
| S.Williams29% | 1 | 4% | 0 | -5.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Doubs92% | 10 | 29% | 7 | 91 | +4.0 | |
| J.Jacobs58% | 5 | 14% | 4 | 13 | -1.6 | |
| C.Watson66% | 4 | 11% | 2 | 58 | -0.8 | |
| T.Kraft49% | 3 | 9% | 2 | 20 | +2.0 | |
| L.Musgrave46% | 3 | 9% | 3 | 34 | +1.0 | |
| M.Golden37% | 3 | 9% | 2 | 9 | -2.0 | |
| C.Brooks17% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 24 | +3.8 | |
| E.Wilson32% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 1 | -1.6 | |
| S.Williams29% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 12 | +0.8 | |
| M.Heath42% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 11 | +3.0 |
Defense X.McKinney 1 sack and 1 INT · Kicking B.McManus 2/3 FG (long 49)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Third downs favor Packers
Packers convert 48% of third downs (2nd). Panthers allow 47% (30th).
Deep left is open
Panthers are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.57 EPA per attempt. Packers send 8% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Panthers give up 6.7 targets a game to tight ends (11th), against a league average of 7.3. Packers' tight ends produce 5.6 (28th).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Packers create explosive plays on 12% of snaps (3rd). Panthers give them up at 9% (10th).
The Packers lead the series 10–7 since 1999. Oct 29, 2026, at Lambeau Field: the Packers won 27–19. Jordan Love started at quarterback for the Packers and Bryce Young for the Panthers; Matt LaFleur and Dave Canales coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 8 | CAR 19 at GB 27 |
| 2025 · Wk 9 | CAR 16 at GB 13 |
| 2023 · Wk 16 | GB 33 at CAR 30 |
| 2020 · Wk 15 | CAR 16 at GB 24 |
| 2019 · Wk 10 | CAR 16 at GB 24 |
2025 records
| Panthers | Packers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8–9 | 9–7–1 |
| Division | 3–3 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 6–6 | 7–4–1 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Home | 5–3 | 5–3 |
| Away | 3–6 | 4–4–1 |
| Last 5 | WLWLL | WLLLL |
| Streak | Lost 2 | Lost 4 |
| Points a game | 18.3 – 22.4 | 23.0 – 21.2 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Panthers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | GB off | Favors GB · Favors CAR | CAR def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.12#3 | +0.07#23 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 47%#4 | 45%#19 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.7#9 | 5.6#20 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 12%#3 | 9%#10 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.24#1 | +0.11#24 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#8 | 5%#27 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.07#22 | +0.01#27 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.1#21 | 4.4#21 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 48%#2 | 47%#30 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 60%#12 | 57%#14 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 150#13 | 130#13 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 48#22 | 61#25 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.6#28 | 6.7#11 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 27#20 | 29#13 | 32 | |
Packers: EPA per throw
Panthers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.