2025
Week 9 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Ford Field
vs
Lions offensevsVikings defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Lions, 17 for Vikings. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Vikings won 27–24 from as low as 11% (Q1 12:37, down 6–0). The Lions had been 76% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q3 9:14: J.Goff pass short right to D.Montgomery to DET 6 for -3 yards (B.Cashman, B.Murphy) (46% → 51%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 6:29, 20 points for the Vikings.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 6:29MINJ.Bates 45 yard field goal is BLOCKED (L.Rodriguez), RECOVERED by MIN-I.Rodgers at MIN 33. I.Rodgers pushed ob at DET 26 for 41 yards (J.Fox).71% → 91%
- 2Q4 10:37DETJ.Goff pass short middle to S.LaPorta to MIN 24 for 17 yards (H.Smith; J.Metellus).28% → 44%
- 3Q4 2:00DETJ.Goff pass deep left to J.Williams pushed ob at MIN 3 for 34 yards (I.Rodgers). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling,…7% → 21%
- 4Q4 8:11DETPENALTY on MIN-J.Greenard, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at MIN 19 - No Play.34% → 47%
- 5Q4 1:41MINJ.McCarthy pass deep right to J.Nailor to MIN 44 for 16 yards (A.Maulet).79% → 92%
- ★Q3 9:14MINJ.Goff pass short right to D.Montgomery to DET 6 for -3 yards (B.Cashman, B.Murphy).turning point46% → 51%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
A.Jones led the Vikings at +5.9 EPA (9 carries for 78). S.LaPorta led the Lions at +9.6 EPA (6 catches for 97).
Vikings
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.McCarthy100% | 14/25 | 143 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -7.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Mason60% | 10 | 34% | 36 | -0.8 | |
| A.Jones42% | 9 | 31% | 78 | +4.0 | |
| J.McCarthy100% | 9 | 31% | 12 | 1 | +1.2 |
| J.Addison92% | 1 | 3% | 16 | +1.9 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Jefferson95% | 9 | 39% | 6 | 47 | 1 | +0.8 |
| J.Nailor53% | 4 | 17% | 1 | 16 | -5.6 | |
| J.Addison92% | 4 | 17% | 2 | 48 | +3.6 | |
| T.Hockenson77% | 3 | 13% | 2 | 11 | 1 | +2.1 |
| A.Jones42% | 2 | 9% | 2 | 20 | +1.9 | |
| J.Mason60% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 1 | -0.6 |
Defense E.Wilson 2 sacks, J.Hargrave 1 sack, J.Redmond 1 sack, L.Rodriguez 1 sack · Kicking W.Reichard 2/2 FG (long 50)
Lions
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Goff100% | 25/37 | 284 | 2 | 5 | +4.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Montgomery38% | 11 | 55% | 40 | 1 | -1.5 |
| J.Gibbs66% | 9 | 45% | 25 | -3.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Brown95% | 13 | 36% | 9 | 97 | +2.4 | |
| S.LaPorta100% | 8 | 22% | 6 | 97 | 1 | +9.6 |
| J.Williams91% | 6 | 17% | 4 | 66 | 1 | +5.4 |
| D.Montgomery38% | 4 | 11% | 2 | 10 | -1.6 | |
| J.Gibbs66% | 3 | 8% | 3 | 3 | -2.2 | |
| K.Raymond45% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.1 | |
| B.Wright55% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 11 | +1.5 |
Defense T.Arnold 1 INT, A.Muhammad 1 sack, D.Barnes 1 sack, A.Hutchinson 1 sack · Kicking J.Bates 1/2 FG (long 41)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Ground game edge
Lions average 4.7 yards per carry (5th). Vikings allow 3.8 (6th).
Deep middle is open
Vikings are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.35 EPA per attempt. Lions send 5% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Vikings give up 6.5 targets a game to tight ends (7th), against a league average of 7.3. Lions' tight ends produce 5.4 (31st).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Lions gain 6.1 yards per play (4th). Vikings give up 4.7 (3rd), with the league at 5.4.
The Vikings lead the series 36–19 since 1999. Nov 1, 2026, at Ford Field: the Lions won 19–15. Jared Goff started at quarterback for the Lions and Kyler Murray for the Vikings; Dan Campbell and Kevin O'Connell coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 8 | MIN 15 at DET 19 |
| 2025 · Wk 17 | DET 10 at MIN 23 |
| 2025 · Wk 9 | MIN 27 at DET 24 |
| 2024 · Wk 18 | MIN 9 at DET 31 |
| 2024 · Wk 7 | DET 31 at MIN 29 |
2025 records
| Vikings | Lions | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9–8 | 9–8 |
| Division | 4–2 | 2–4 |
| Conference | 7–5 | 6–6 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 3–2 |
| Home | 4–4 | 5–3 |
| Away | 5–4 | 4–5 |
| Last 5 | WWWWW | WLLLW |
| Streak | Won 5 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 20.2 – 19.6 | 28.3 – 24.3 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Vikings' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | DET off | Favors DET · Favors MIN | MIN def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.08#6 | -0.10#3 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 45%#12 | 41%#5 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.1#4 | 4.7#3 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#8 | 9%#11 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.17#4 | -0.15#2 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 6%#14 | 10%#2 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.05#16 | -0.08#13 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.7#5 | 3.8#6 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 39%#20 | 35%#2 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 64%#8 | 45%#3 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 181#3 | 116#2 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 40#26 | 42#4 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.4#31 | 6.5#7 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 47#4 | 19#1 | 32 | |
Lions: EPA per throw
Vikings: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.