2026
Week 3 · Monday 8:15 PM ET · Soldier Field
vs
Bears offensevsEagles defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 7 games for Bears, 8 for Eagles. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Bears won 27–7; their low point was 35% at Q1 15:00. The Eagles had been 65% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q3 14:23: J.Hurts pass short right to S.Barkley to PHI 25 for -2 yards (T.Edwards, J.Lynch) (49% → 51%). The biggest single swing came at Q2 6:21, 17 points for the Bears.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 6:21CHIA.Dalton pass short middle intended for D.Wicks INTERCEPTED by D.Thieneman at CHI -9. Touchback.45% → 62%
- 2Q1 1:15CHIJ.Hurts pass short right to T.Bigsby to PHI 15 for 5 yards (A.Booker; D.Bush). FUMBLES (A.Booker), RECOVERED by CHI-X.Woods at PHI 15.58% → 68%
- 3Q3 5:55CHIC.Keenum pass short middle to K.Raymond for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.75% → 85%
- 4Q2 1:12PHIJ.Hurts pass deep right to D.Smith to CHI 19 for 30 yards (J.Johnson).32% → 40%
- 5Q1 10:52CHIC.Keenum pass short left to S.Roush to PHI 16 for 16 yards (Z.Baun).39% → 47%
- ★Q3 14:23CHIJ.Hurts pass short right to S.Barkley to PHI 25 for -2 yards (T.Edwards, J.Lynch).turning point49% → 51%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
S.Barkley led the Eagles at +0.5 EPA (15 carries for 82). K.Raymond led the Bears at +7.0 EPA (6 catches for 90).
Eagles
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Hurts92% | 16/25 | 153 | 1 | 2 | -11.0 | |
| A.Dalton8% | 0/1 | 0 | 1 | -5.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Barkley72% | 15 | 79% | 82 | +2.2 | |
| J.Hurts92% | 4 | 21% | 25 | 1 | +3.6 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Smith100% | 8 | 32% | 6 | 65 | -0.8 | |
| D.Wicks88% | 5 | 20% | 2 | 32 | -4.4 | |
| M.Lemon70% | 4 | 16% | 3 | 29 | -1.6 | |
| Z.Ertz38% | 2 | 8% | 1 | 9 | -0.8 | |
| S.Barkley72% | 2 | 8% | 1 | -2 | -1.7 | |
| W.Shipley26% | 2 | 8% | 1 | 11 | -0.8 | |
| J.Mundt52% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 4 | -1.2 | |
| T.Bigsby4% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 5 | -4.0 |
Defense no sacks or interceptions
Bears
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Keenum100% | 24/34 | 247 | 2 | +7.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Swift69% | 20 | 57% | 84 | -0.8 | |
| K.Monangai31% | 10 | 29% | 31 | -1.0 | |
| C.Keenum100% | 4 | 11% | 6 | 1 | -3.8 |
| L.III61% | 1 | 3% | 7 | +0.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L.III61% | 11 | 32% | 7 | 61 | 1 | -1.1 |
| K.Raymond75% | 7 | 21% | 6 | 90 | 1 | +7.0 |
| R.Odunze85% | 6 | 18% | 3 | 44 | -1.3 | |
| C.Loveland79% | 4 | 12% | 4 | 31 | +1.7 | |
| D.Swift69% | 3 | 9% | 2 | 4 | -0.4 | |
| C.Kmet60% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.6 | |
| Z.Thomas11% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 1 | -0.8 | |
| S.Roush22% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 16 | +2.6 |
Defense T.Edwards 1 INT, D.Thieneman 1 INT, M.Sweat 1 sack, D.Odeyingbo 1 sack · Kicking C.Santos 2/2 FG (long 48)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Wideouts feast
Eagles give up 184 yards a game to wide receivers (29th), against a league average of 147. Bears' wide receivers produce 167 (8th).
Deep left is open
Eagles are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.69 EPA per attempt. Bears send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Eagles give up 42 yards a game to tight ends (5th), against a league average of 55. Bears' tight ends produce 52 (19th).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Bears gain 5.5 yards per play (15th). Eagles give up 5.6 (22nd), with the league at 5.4.
The Eagles lead the series 12–6 since 1999. The Bears have won the last 2. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 3 | PHI 7 at CHI 27 |
| 2025 · Wk 13 | CHI 24 at PHI 15 |
| 2022 · Wk 15 | PHI 25 at CHI 20 |
| 2019 · Wk 9 | CHI 14 at PHI 22 |
| 2018 · Wk 18 · playoffs | PHI 16 at CHI 15 |
2026 records
| Eagles | Bears | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 2–6 | 5–2 |
| Division | 1–2 | 0–2 |
| Conference | 1–5 | 3–2 |
| Other conference | 1–1 | 2–0 |
| Home | 1–3 | 3–1 |
| Away | 1–3 | 2–1 |
| Last 5 | LLLLL | WWLWW |
| Streak | Lost 6 | Won 2 |
| Points a game | 17.1 – 25.3 | 25.7 – 20.4 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Eagles' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | CHI off | Favors CHI · Favors PHI | PHI def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.05#10 | +0.10#29 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 47%#8 | 45%#23 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.5#15 | 5.6#22 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#10 | 10%#21 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.11#12 | +0.13#26 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 7%#20 | 4%#32 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.06#15 | +0.04#32 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.3#11 | 4.2#20 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 44%#7 | 42%#20 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 53%#24 | 60%#15 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 167#8 | 184#29 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 52#19 | 42#5 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.7#7 | 5.9#1 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 36#11 | 19#4 | 32 | |
Bears: EPA per throw
Eagles: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.