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DOWN X DOWN › week 4 › Colts at Commanders
Updated Nov 2, 5:48 PM ET
2026
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Week 4 · Sunday 9:30 AM ET · Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

INDvsWAS

Colts offensevsCommanders defense

Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Colts, 7 for Commanders. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.

IND offenseWAS offense
How it played out · win probability, snap by snapFinal · IND 30 · WAS 13

The Colts won 30–13; their low point was 38% at Q2 13:36. The game turned for good at Q2 5:13: D.Jones pass short right to J.Downs to WAS 25 for 5 yards (D.Payne). PENALTY on WAS-A.Robertson, Unnecessary Roughness, 12 yards, enforced at WAS 25 (47% → 57%). The biggest single swing came at Q1 14:38, 10 points for the Commanders.

At kickoffIND 68%IND by 4.5 on the line
IND low point38%Q2 13:36 · down 6⁠–⁠0
Swings past 50%8times the favorite changed
Biggest swing10 ptsWAS · Q1 14:38
WAS wins50%IND wins
Q1Q2Q3Q4

The plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 14:38WASJ.Croskey-Merritt right tackle to IND 18 for 3 yards (A.Key; D.Buckner).36% → 47%+10
  2. 2Q3 10:47WASA.Kaliakmanis pass deep left to T.Burks for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN.13% → 23%+10
  3. 3Q1 8:28WASM.Mariota pass short left to J.Croskey-Merritt pushed ob at IND 7 for 35 yards (A.Davis-Gaither).48% → 58%+10
  4. 4Q2 5:13INDD.Jones pass short right to J.Downs to WAS 25 for 5 yards (D.Payne). PENALTY on WAS-A.Robertson, Unnecessary Roughness, 12 yards, enforced at WAS 25.turning point47% → 57%+10
  5. 5Q2 10:35INDL.S.McGowan left guard to WAS 44 for 8 yards (A.Robertson; K.Chaisson). WAS-A.Robertson was injured during the play.43% → 51%+8

Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.

Box score · every offensive player who touched the ballWeek 4

T.Warren led the Colts at +2.3 EPA (5 catches for 41). D.Brown led the Commanders at +6.0 EPA (3 catches for 65).

IND Colts

PassingC/AYdsTDINTSkEPA
D.Jones100%19/3414312-13.4
RushingCarShareYdsTDEPA
J.Taylor71%2067%952+3.6
S.McGowan29%620%31+1.6
D.Jones100%413%21+2.7
ReceivingTgtShareRecYdsTDEPA
L.Treadwell85%621%542+2.3
A.Dulin35%621%329-5.0
T.Warren85%517%541+2.3
J.Taylor71%414%12-2.1
J.Downs77%414%316+0.5
S.McGowan29%27%17+0.0
D.Burks23%27%16-1.9

Defense J.Carlies 1 INT, J.Walley 1 sack, A.Adebawore 0.5 sacks, L.Latu 0.5 sacks · Kicking S.Shrader 3/3 FG (long 52)

WAS Commanders

PassingC/AYdsTDINTSkEPA
A.Kaliakmanis84%15/33186111-10.2
M.Mariota16%3/4461+0.8
RushingCarShareYdsTDEPA
J.Croskey-Merritt45%941%15-3.7
A.Ekeler27%418%29+1.7
K.Allen19%314%1-1.9
A.Kaliakmanis84%314%16-1.3
C.Reynolds9%29%4-3.0
M.Mariota16%15%35+2.4
ReceivingTgtShareRecYdsTDEPA
S.Diggs66%925%535-3.7
A.Williams69%822%321-6.7
D.Brown56%411%365+6.0
C.Okonkwo58%411%25-2.4
J.Croskey-Merritt45%411%235-0.5
T.Burks59%38%1471+1.7
A.Ekeler27%26%111+0.8
C.Yankoff11%13%00-0.5
B.Coleman13%113+0.8

Defense R.Douglas 1 INT, O.Oweh 1 sack, T.Settle 0.5 sacks, K.Chaisson 0.5 sacks · Kicking D.Stevens 2/2 FG (long 31)

Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.

Keys to the game · from the season numbers, not this game alone4 reads
01
Biggest edge

Red zone touchdowns

Colts score a touchdown on 64% of red zone trips (13th). Commanders allow 79% (29th).

02
Opportunity

Deep right is open

Commanders are worst against deep right throws, allowing +1.19 EPA per attempt. Colts send 6% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.

03
Watch out

Passing lanes are closed

Colts gain -0.22 EPA per dropback (30th). Commanders allow +0.02 (17th).

04
Wash

Success rate

Call this one even. Colts succeed on 42% of plays (21st) against a defense that allows 46% (27th).

The series · Colts and Commanders since 1999, and this season's records8 meetings

The Colts lead the series 6–2 since 1999. This game is the latest meeting.

Colts at home3–1the Colts' record
In Washington2–1the Colts' record
Most pointsColts 49 · Commanders 272014 · 2014
Biggest winColts by 22 · Commanders by 52014 · 2002

The last 5

2026 · Wk 4IND 30 at WAS 13
2022 · Wk 8WAS 17 at IND 16
2018 · Wk 2IND 21 at WAS 9
2014 · Wk 13WAS 27 at IND 49
2010 · Wk 6IND 27 at WAS 24

2026 records

ColtsCommanders
Overall2–62–4–1
Division1–21–2–1
Conference1–52–3–1
Other conference1–10–1
Home1–22–1–1
Away1–40–3
Last 5WLLLLWLTLW
StreakLost 4Won 1
Points a game20.1 – 27.822.7 – 26.0

Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Colts' side. Records are this regular season.

Head to head · IND offense against WAS defense
StatIND IND offFavors IND · Favors WASWAS WAS def allowsNFL avg
Overall
EPA per play
-0.12#30
+0.03#21+0.00
Success rate
42%#21
46%#2744%
Yards per play
4.5#31
5.4#175.4
Explosive play rate
9%#22
8%#89%
Passing
Pass EPA per dropback
-0.22#30
+0.02#17+0.03
Sack rate
8%#23
6%#197%
Running
Run EPA per carry
+0.02#5
-0.08#16-0.08
Yards per carry
4.2#15
3.5#54.1
Money downs
3rd down conversion
40%#18
44%#2641%
Red zone TD rate
64%#13
79%#2961%
Targets by position
WR yards per game
129#24
149#18147
TE yards per game
38#25
75#3055
TE targets per game
8.4#9
8.0#227.6
RB receiving yards per game
27#22
36#2232
Where the ball goes · EPA per throwDeep is 15+ air yds

Colts: EPA per throw

Left
Middle
Right
Deep
-0.247% of throws
+0.344% of throws
-0.106% of throws
Short
-0.1935% of throws
+0.1217% of throws
+0.0332% of throws

Commanders: EPA allowed per throw

Left
Middle
Right
Deep
+0.2712 throws
+0.5911 throws
+1.1920 throws
Short
-0.0481 throws
+0.4146 throws
-0.0983 throws

Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.