2026
Week 4 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Raymond James Stadium
vs
Packers offensevsBuccaneers defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Packers, 8 for Buccaneers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Packers won 17–14 and were favored the whole way, never below 52%. The biggest single swing came at Q4 9:13, 16 points for the Buccaneers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 9:13GBK.Johnson up the middle to TB 3 for no gain (T.Smith). FUMBLES (T.Smith), touched at TB 3, RECOVERED by TB-Z.McCollum at TB 4.11% → 27%
- 2Q4 1:34TBJ.Daniels pass short middle intended for T.Hurst INTERCEPTED by K.Nixon [E.Williams] at GB 43. K.Nixon to GB 43 for no gain (T.Hurst). The Replay…80% → 95%
- 3Q4 4:26GBJ.Love pass deep left intended for M.Golden INTERCEPTED by J.Parrish at TB 7. J.Parrish to TB 15 for 8 yards (T.Kraft).12% → 25%
- 4Q2 0:41TBJ.Daniels pass short left intended for K.Johnson INTERCEPTED by E.Cooper at GB 38. E.Cooper pushed ob at TB 44 for 18 yards (J.Daniels).55% → 67%
- 5Q2 12:58GBJ.Love pass short right to M.Golden for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.68% → 78%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Love led the Packers at +7.0 EPA (22 of 30 for 197). T.III led the Buccaneers at +3.2 EPA (2 catches for 25).
Packers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Love100% | 22/30 | 197 | 2 | 1 | +6.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Johnson28% | 8 | 32% | 42 | -5.9 | |
| M.Lloyd55% | 7 | 28% | 13 | -3.0 | |
| J.Love100% | 4 | 16% | -8 | +0.0 | |
| C.Brooks17% | 4 | 16% | 30 | +0.9 | |
| T.Kraft92% | 1 | 4% | 3 | +1.9 | |
| M.Golden88% | 1 | 4% | 6 | +0.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Kraft92% | 7 | 23% | 6 | 42 | 1 | +4.0 |
| M.Golden88% | 7 | 23% | 3 | 21 | 1 | -1.7 |
| M.Lloyd55% | 5 | 17% | 5 | 36 | +0.3 | |
| C.Watson68% | 3 | 10% | 3 | 47 | +4.9 | |
| S.Moore38% | 2 | 7% | 1 | -2 | -1.2 | |
| M.Redman47% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 29 | +1.7 | |
| J.Smith22% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 19 | +1.9 | |
| B.Melton18% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -1.9 | |
| C.Brooks17% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 5 | -0.2 | |
| J.Sturdivant3% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.8 |
Defense E.Williams 1 sack and 1 INT, E.Cooper 1 sack and 1 INT, X.McKinney 1 sack · Kicking T.Smack 1/1 FG, 2/2 XP, 5 pts
Buccaneers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Daniels100% | 19/27 | 148 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Irving59% | 16 | 52% | 61 | -0.9 | |
| J.Daniels100% | 8 | 26% | 55 | +1.4 | |
| K.Gainwell43% | 3 | 10% | 5 | -1.5 | |
| S.Tucker5% | 3 | 10% | 10 | 1 | +1.8 |
| T.Johnson56% | 1 | 3% | 10 | +1.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Jr.89% | 7 | 27% | 6 | 31 | +0.7 | |
| C.Otton95% | 6 | 23% | 4 | 37 | +1.1 | |
| E.Egbuka94% | 4 | 15% | 2 | 13 | -4.3 | |
| T.III40% | 3 | 12% | 2 | 25 | +3.2 | |
| K.Gainwell43% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 22 | 1 | +4.1 |
| K.Johnson8% | 2 | 8% | 1 | 3 | -4.1 | |
| T.Johnson56% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 17 | +0.2 |
Defense J.Parrish 1 INT · Kicking C.McLaughlin 2/2 XP, 2 pts
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Clean pockets
Packers take a sack on 4% of dropbacks (7th). Buccaneers get home on 6% (24th). League average is 7%.
Deep middle is open
Buccaneers are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.64 EPA per attempt. Packers send 7% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Nowhere to run
Packers' run game is 32nd in EPA per carry (-0.24). Buccaneers allow -0.15 (5th).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Packers gain 5.5 yards per play (16th). Buccaneers give up 5.1 (7th), with the league at 5.4.
The Buccaneers lead the series 10–9 since 1999. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 4 | GB 17 at TB 14 |
| 2023 · Wk 15 | TB 34 at GB 20 |
| 2022 · Wk 3 | GB 14 at TB 12 |
| 2020 · Wk 20 · playoffs | TB 31 at GB 26 |
| 2020 · Wk 6 | GB 10 at TB 38 |
2026 records
| Packers | Buccaneers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5–3 | 3–5 |
| Division | 1–2 | 2–0 |
| Conference | 4–3 | 3–2 |
| Other conference | 1–0 | 0–3 |
| Home | 3–1 | 1–4 |
| Away | 2–2 | 2–1 |
| Last 5 | WWWLW | LWLWW |
| Streak | Won 1 | Won 2 |
| Points a game | 21.4 – 20.5 | 22.3 – 18.9 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Packers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | GB off | Favors GB · Favors TB | TB def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.00#17 | -0.16#2 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 40%#27 | 39%#3 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.5#16 | 5.1#7 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#19 | 7%#4 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.12#11 | -0.20#2 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 4%#7 | 6%#24 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.24#32 | -0.15#5 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.1#32 | 3.6#8 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 39%#23 | 34%#6 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 54%#23 | 50%#9 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 193#3 | 131#10 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 59#15 | 56#21 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.5#16 | 8.1#23 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 28#20 | 33#19 | 32 | |
Packers: EPA per throw
Buccaneers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.