2026
Week 4 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Raymond James Stadium
vs
Buccaneers offensevsPackers defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Buccaneers, 8 for Packers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Packers won 17–14 and were favored the whole way, never below 52%. The biggest single swing came at Q4 9:13, 16 points for the Buccaneers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 9:13TBK.Johnson up the middle to TB 3 for no gain (T.Smith). FUMBLES (T.Smith), touched at TB 3, RECOVERED by TB-Z.McCollum at TB 4.11% → 27%
- 2Q4 1:34GBJ.Daniels pass short middle intended for T.Hurst INTERCEPTED by K.Nixon [E.Williams] at GB 43. K.Nixon to GB 43 for no gain (T.Hurst). The Replay…80% → 95%
- 3Q4 4:26TBJ.Love pass deep left intended for M.Golden INTERCEPTED by J.Parrish at TB 7. J.Parrish to TB 15 for 8 yards (T.Kraft).12% → 25%
- 4Q2 0:41GBJ.Daniels pass short left intended for K.Johnson INTERCEPTED by E.Cooper at GB 38. E.Cooper pushed ob at TB 44 for 18 yards (J.Daniels).55% → 67%
- 5Q2 12:58GBJ.Love pass short right to M.Golden for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.68% → 78%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Love led the Packers at +7.0 EPA (22 of 30 for 197). T.III led the Buccaneers at +3.2 EPA (2 catches for 25).
Packers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Love100% | 22/30 | 197 | 2 | 1 | +6.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Johnson28% | 8 | 32% | 42 | -5.9 | |
| M.Lloyd55% | 7 | 28% | 13 | -3.0 | |
| J.Love100% | 4 | 16% | -8 | +0.0 | |
| C.Brooks17% | 4 | 16% | 30 | +0.9 | |
| T.Kraft92% | 1 | 4% | 3 | +1.9 | |
| M.Golden88% | 1 | 4% | 6 | +0.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Kraft92% | 7 | 23% | 6 | 42 | 1 | +4.0 |
| M.Golden88% | 7 | 23% | 3 | 21 | 1 | -1.7 |
| M.Lloyd55% | 5 | 17% | 5 | 36 | +0.3 | |
| C.Watson68% | 3 | 10% | 3 | 47 | +4.9 | |
| S.Moore38% | 2 | 7% | 1 | -2 | -1.2 | |
| M.Redman47% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 29 | +1.7 | |
| J.Smith22% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 19 | +1.9 | |
| B.Melton18% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -1.9 | |
| C.Brooks17% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 5 | -0.2 | |
| J.Sturdivant3% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.8 |
Defense E.Williams 1 sack and 1 INT, E.Cooper 1 sack and 1 INT, X.McKinney 1 sack · Kicking T.Smack 1/1 FG (long 58)
Buccaneers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Daniels100% | 19/27 | 148 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Irving59% | 16 | 52% | 61 | -0.9 | |
| J.Daniels100% | 8 | 26% | 55 | +1.4 | |
| K.Gainwell43% | 3 | 10% | 5 | -1.5 | |
| S.Tucker5% | 3 | 10% | 10 | 1 | +1.8 |
| T.Johnson56% | 1 | 3% | 10 | +1.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Jr.89% | 7 | 27% | 6 | 31 | +0.7 | |
| C.Otton95% | 6 | 23% | 4 | 37 | +1.1 | |
| E.Egbuka94% | 4 | 15% | 2 | 13 | -4.3 | |
| T.III40% | 3 | 12% | 2 | 25 | +3.2 | |
| K.Gainwell43% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 22 | 1 | +4.1 |
| K.Johnson8% | 2 | 8% | 1 | 3 | -4.1 | |
| T.Johnson56% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 17 | +0.2 |
Defense J.Parrish 1 INT
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Ground game edge
Buccaneers average 5.0 yards per carry (3rd). Packers allow 3.9 (14th).
Deep left is open
Packers are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.61 EPA per attempt. Buccaneers send 7% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Packers give up 35 yards a game to tight ends (3rd), against a league average of 55. Buccaneers' tight ends produce 27 (32nd).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Buccaneers create explosive plays on 10% of snaps (11th). Packers give them up at 6% (3rd).
The Buccaneers lead the series 10–9 since 1999. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 4 | GB 17 at TB 14 |
| 2023 · Wk 15 | TB 34 at GB 20 |
| 2022 · Wk 3 | GB 14 at TB 12 |
| 2020 · Wk 20 · playoffs | TB 31 at GB 26 |
| 2020 · Wk 6 | GB 10 at TB 38 |
2026 records
| Packers | Buccaneers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5–3 | 3–5 |
| Division | 1–2 | 2–0 |
| Conference | 4–3 | 3–2 |
| Other conference | 1–0 | 0–3 |
| Home | 3–1 | 1–4 |
| Away | 2–2 | 2–1 |
| Last 5 | WWWLW | LWLWW |
| Streak | Won 1 | Won 2 |
| Points a game | 21.4 – 20.5 | 22.3 – 18.9 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Packers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | TB off | Favors TB · Favors GB | GB def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.09#26 | -0.07#7 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 41%#26 | 44%#15 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 4.9#25 | 4.8#3 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#11 | 6%#3 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.23#31 | -0.06#5 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 10%#30 | 7%#13 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.01#8 | -0.10#11 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 5.0#3 | 3.9#14 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 40%#14 | 44%#23 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 52%#27 | 60%#13 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 104#31 | 152#22 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 27#32 | 35#3 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 4.1#32 | 6.1#4 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 17#29 | 34#19 | 32 | |
Buccaneers: EPA per throw
Packers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.