2026
Week 7 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
vs
Falcons offensevs49ers defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Falcons, 7 for 49ers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Falcons won 29–20 from as low as 16% (Q2 14:54, down 14–3). The 49ers had been 59% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q3 5:41: B.Purdy pass short right intended for J.Cowing INTERCEPTED by J.Bates at ATL 10. J.Bates ran ob at ATL 10 for no gain (47% → 63%).
The plays that swung it
- 1Q3 5:41SFB.Purdy pass short right intended for J.Cowing INTERCEPTED by J.Bates at ATL 10. J.Bates ran ob at ATL 10 for no gain.turning point47% → 63%
- 2Q4 2:42SFB.Purdy pass short middle intended for J.Watkins INTERCEPTED by K.Daniels at SF 48. K.Daniels pushed ob at SF 19 for 29 yards (T.Williams).80% → 95%
- 3Q2 4:24SFK.Black up the middle to ATL 29 for -1 yards (M.Smith). FUMBLES (M.Smith), touched at ATL 29, RECOVERED by ATL-G.Dexter at ATL 29.18% → 30%
- 4Q3 7:34SFB.Purdy pass short middle to G.Kittle to ATL 35 for 20 yards (J.Bates; X.Watts).45% → 54%
- 5Q3 1:00ATLM.Penix pass incomplete deep right to J.Dotson. PENALTY on SF-J.Jones, Defensive Pass Interference, 20 yards, enforced at ATL 46 - No Play.69% → 77%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
C.McCaffrey led the 49ers at +7.9 EPA (7 carries for 39). D.London led the Falcons at +7.0 EPA (7 catches for 66).
49ers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Purdy100% | 27/40 | 288 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +2.0 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Black47% | 12 | 52% | 63 | 1 | -4.6 |
| C.McCaffrey52% | 7 | 30% | 39 | 1 | +3.4 |
| B.Purdy100% | 2 | 9% | 5 | +2.0 | |
| J.Cowing39% | 1 | 4% | 10 | +1.2 | |
| J.James6% | 1 | 4% | 6 | +0.7 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G.Kittle91% | 10 | 26% | 8 | 88 | +2.7 | |
| C.McCaffrey52% | 7 | 18% | 6 | 61 | +4.5 | |
| J.Watkins76% | 6 | 15% | 3 | 56 | -1.5 | |
| J.Cowing39% | 5 | 13% | 3 | 38 | +0.1 | |
| K.Juszczyk48% | 3 | 8% | 3 | 11 | 1 | -0.3 |
| B.Cooks68% | 3 | 8% | 1 | 13 | -1.1 | |
| K.Black47% | 3 | 8% | 1 | -4 | -2.7 | |
| L.Farrell39% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 14 | +1.0 | |
| J.James6% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 11 | +0.8 |
Defense no sacks or interceptions · Kicking E.Pineiro 2/3 XP, 2 pts
Falcons
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Jr.100% | 25/34 | 213 | 3 | +9.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Robinson81% | 20 | 69% | 63 | -5.3 | |
| M.Jr.100% | 5 | 17% | -1 | -2.5 | |
| K.Herbert16% | 2 | 7% | 9 | +0.2 | |
| C.Woerner72% | 1 | 3% | 3 | +0.8 | |
| Z.Branch34% | 1 | 3% | 8 | +0.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.London81% | 10 | 31% | 7 | 66 | 1 | +7.0 |
| K.Pitts56% | 5 | 16% | 5 | 22 | 1 | +1.1 |
| B.Robinson81% | 5 | 16% | 5 | 59 | +2.6 | |
| J.Dotson56% | 3 | 9% | 1 | 6 | -2.7 | |
| A.Hooper43% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 21 | +1.0 | |
| N.Muse31% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 2 | 1 | -0.2 |
| Z.Branch34% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 9 | -0.6 | |
| C.Woerner72% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 9 | +0.7 | |
| C.Blair26% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.6 | |
| K.Herbert16% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 19 | +1.8 |
Defense J.Bates 1 INT, K.Daniels 1 INT, Z.Smith 1 sack, M.Smith 1 sack · Kicking N.Folk 3/3 FG, 2/3 XP, 11 pts
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Backs catch passes
49ers give up 49 yards a game to running backs (32nd), against a league average of 32. Falcons' running backs produce 30 (18th).
Short left is open
49ers are worst against short left throws, allowing +0.36 EPA per attempt. Falcons send 35% of their throws there.
Tight ends go quiet
49ers give up 44 yards a game to tight ends (7th), against a league average of 55. Falcons' tight ends produce 37 (26th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Falcons succeed on 43% of plays (15th) against a defense that allows 44% (20th).
The Falcons lead the series 10–9 since 1999. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 7 | SF 20 at ATL 29 |
| 2025 · Wk 7 | ATL 10 at SF 20 |
| 2022 · Wk 6 | SF 14 at ATL 28 |
| 2021 · Wk 15 | ATL 13 at SF 31 |
| 2019 · Wk 15 | ATL 29 at SF 22 |
2026 records
| 49ers | Falcons | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6–1 | 3–5 |
| Division | 3–0 | 1–2 |
| Conference | 4–1 | 3–3 |
| Other conference | 2–0 | 0–2 |
| Home | 4–0 | 1–3 |
| Away | 2–1 | 2–2 |
| Last 5 | WWWWL | WLLWL |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 28.1 – 19.9 | 21.4 – 23.6 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the 49ers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | ATL off | Favors ATL · Favors SF | SF def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.10#29 | -0.05#8 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 43%#15 | 44%#20 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.6#13 | 4.8#4 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#16 | 4%#1 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.18#29 | +0.04#18 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 7%#19 | 6%#22 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.02#9 | -0.18#2 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.7#5 | 3.6#7 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 35%#29 | 38%#11 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 64%#14 | 48%#7 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 133#21 | 132#11 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 37#26 | 44#7 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.5#25 | 7.9#19 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 30#18 | 49#32 | 32 | |
Falcons: EPA per throw
49ers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.