2026
Week 7 · Sunday 8:20 PM ET · Lumen Field
vs
Chiefs offensevsSeahawks defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 7 games for Chiefs, 8 for Seahawks. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Seahawks won 20–3 and were favored the whole way, never below 53%. The biggest single swing came at Q2 11:19, 11 points for the Seahawks.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 11:19SEAS.Darnold pass short middle to J.Smith-Njigba to KC 20 for 33 yards (N.Williams; A.Gilman).58% → 69%
- 2Q2 1:49SEAS.Darnold pass deep left to J.Smith-Njigba pushed ob at KC 1 for 27 yards (M.Delane). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was out of bounds…76% → 86%
- 3Q2 0:23KCS.Darnold pass short middle intended for R.Shaheed INTERCEPTED by N.Williams [G.Karlaftis] at KC -9. N.Williams to SEA 44 for 65 yards (C.Cross).6% → 16%
- 4Q2 6:09SEAP.Mahomes pass short left intended for J.Royals INTERCEPTED by T.Okada [N.Emmanwori] at SEA 34. T.Okada to SEA 34 for no gain (J.Royals).67% → 74%
- 5Q3 1:47KCH.Butker 50 yard field goal is GOOD6% → 13%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
N.Gray led the Chiefs at +3.5 EPA (3 catches for 44). S.Darnold led the Seahawks at +15.4 EPA (20 of 28 for 257).
Chiefs
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.Mahomes100% | 19/33 | 165 | 1 | 1 | -6.0 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.III74% | 14 | 88% | 36 | -1.1 | |
| P.Mahomes100% | 2 | 13% | 14 | +1.9 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Kelce83% | 8 | 25% | 4 | 44 | -0.2 | |
| X.Worthy87% | 6 | 19% | 3 | 11 | -0.8 | |
| K.III74% | 5 | 16% | 4 | 21 | -1.4 | |
| N.Gray53% | 3 | 9% | 3 | 44 | +3.5 | |
| E.Johnson26% | 3 | 9% | 2 | 17 | -0.7 | |
| A.Armstrong58% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 3 | -0.9 | |
| J.Royals68% | 2 | 6% | 0 | 0 | -4.1 | |
| C.Allen30% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 18 | -0.2 | |
| J.Watson9% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 7 | +0.8 |
Defense N.Williams 1 INT · Kicking H.Butker 1/3 FG (long 50)
Seahawks
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Darnold100% | 20/28 | 257 | 1 | 1 | +12.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E.Wilson48% | 24 | 59% | 100 | 1 | +0.3 |
| V.Jr.13% | 5 | 12% | 8 | -3.1 | |
| G.Holani36% | 5 | 12% | 11 | -1.7 | |
| A.Barner80% | 3 | 7% | 4 | -0.7 | |
| S.Darnold100% | 2 | 5% | 17 | +3.3 | |
| J.Smith-Njigba77% | 2 | 5% | 13 | +0.6 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Smith-Njigba77% | 12 | 44% | 9 | 150 | 1 | +12.4 |
| A.Barner80% | 5 | 19% | 4 | 42 | +1.7 | |
| R.Shaheed32% | 3 | 11% | 2 | 1 | -6.8 | |
| C.Kupp65% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 20 | +2.7 | |
| G.Holani36% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 12 | +1.4 | |
| E.Saubert32% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 17 | +1.2 | |
| E.Wilson48% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 15 | +1.6 | |
| T.Horton45% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -1.5 |
Defense T.Okada 1 INT, D.Hall 1 sack · Kicking J.Myers 2/2 FG (long 35)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Red zone touchdowns
Chiefs score a touchdown on 58% of red zone trips (19th). Seahawks allow 88% (32nd).
Deep middle is open
Seahawks are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.88 EPA per attempt. Chiefs send 5% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Wideouts get blanketed
Seahawks give up 100 yards a game to wide receivers (1st), against a league average of 147. Chiefs' wide receivers produce 118 (28th).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Chiefs gain 6.4 yards per play (3rd). Seahawks give up 4.2 (1st), with the league at 5.4.
The Chiefs lead the series 7–6 since 1999. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 7 | KC 3 at SEA 20 |
| 2022 · Wk 16 | SEA 10 at KC 24 |
| 2018 · Wk 16 | KC 31 at SEA 38 |
| 2014 · Wk 11 | SEA 20 at KC 24 |
| 2010 · Wk 12 | KC 42 at SEA 24 |
2026 records
| Chiefs | Seahawks | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5–2 | 4–4 |
| Division | 3–1 | 1–1 |
| Conference | 5–1 | 1–3 |
| Other conference | 0–1 | 3–1 |
| Home | 3–0 | 3–2 |
| Away | 2–2 | 1–2 |
| Last 5 | WWWLL | WLLWL |
| Streak | Lost 2 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 23.9 – 18.7 | 23.1 – 19.9 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Chiefs' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | KC off | Favors KC · Favors SEA | SEA def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.13#4 | -0.09#5 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 48%#6 | 39%#2 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.4#3 | 4.2#1 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#9 | 5%#2 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.14#9 | -0.10#4 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 4%#4 | 7%#15 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.09#2 | -0.11#10 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 5.3#1 | 3.4#3 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 40%#13 | 34%#7 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 58%#19 | 88%#32 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 118#28 | 100#1 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 85#3 | 38#3 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.7#7 | 6.9#11 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 53#1 | 31#14 | 32 | |
Chiefs: EPA per throw
Seahawks: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.