2026
Week 7 · Sunday 8:20 PM ET · Lumen Field
vs
Seahawks offensevsChiefs defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Seahawks, 7 for Chiefs. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Seahawks won 20–3 and were favored the whole way, never below 53%. The biggest single swing came at Q2 11:19, 11 points for the Seahawks.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 11:19SEAS.Darnold pass short middle to J.Smith-Njigba to KC 20 for 33 yards (N.Williams; A.Gilman).58% → 69%
- 2Q2 1:49SEAS.Darnold pass deep left to J.Smith-Njigba pushed ob at KC 1 for 27 yards (M.Delane). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was out of bounds…76% → 86%
- 3Q2 0:23KCS.Darnold pass short middle intended for R.Shaheed INTERCEPTED by N.Williams [G.Karlaftis] at KC -9. N.Williams to SEA 44 for 65 yards (C.Cross).6% → 16%
- 4Q2 6:09SEAP.Mahomes pass short left intended for J.Royals INTERCEPTED by T.Okada [N.Emmanwori] at SEA 34. T.Okada to SEA 34 for no gain (J.Royals).67% → 74%
- 5Q3 1:47KCH.Butker 50 yard field goal is GOOD6% → 13%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
N.Gray led the Chiefs at +3.5 EPA (3 catches for 44). S.Darnold led the Seahawks at +15.4 EPA (20 of 28 for 257).
Chiefs
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.Mahomes100% | 19/33 | 165 | 1 | 1 | -6.0 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.III74% | 14 | 88% | 36 | -1.1 | |
| P.Mahomes100% | 2 | 13% | 14 | +1.9 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Kelce83% | 8 | 25% | 4 | 44 | -0.2 | |
| X.Worthy87% | 6 | 19% | 3 | 11 | -0.8 | |
| K.III74% | 5 | 16% | 4 | 21 | -1.4 | |
| N.Gray53% | 3 | 9% | 3 | 44 | +3.5 | |
| E.Johnson26% | 3 | 9% | 2 | 17 | -0.7 | |
| A.Armstrong58% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 3 | -0.9 | |
| J.Royals68% | 2 | 6% | 0 | 0 | -4.1 | |
| C.Allen30% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 18 | -0.2 | |
| J.Watson9% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 7 | +0.8 |
Defense N.Williams 1 INT · Kicking H.Butker 1/3 FG (long 50)
Seahawks
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Darnold100% | 20/28 | 257 | 1 | 1 | +12.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E.Wilson48% | 24 | 59% | 100 | 1 | +0.3 |
| V.Jr.13% | 5 | 12% | 8 | -3.1 | |
| G.Holani36% | 5 | 12% | 11 | -1.7 | |
| A.Barner80% | 3 | 7% | 4 | -0.7 | |
| S.Darnold100% | 2 | 5% | 17 | +3.3 | |
| J.Smith-Njigba77% | 2 | 5% | 13 | +0.6 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Smith-Njigba77% | 12 | 44% | 9 | 150 | 1 | +12.4 |
| A.Barner80% | 5 | 19% | 4 | 42 | +1.7 | |
| R.Shaheed32% | 3 | 11% | 2 | 1 | -6.8 | |
| C.Kupp65% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 20 | +2.7 | |
| G.Holani36% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 12 | +1.4 | |
| E.Saubert32% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 17 | +1.2 | |
| E.Wilson48% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 15 | +1.6 | |
| T.Horton45% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -1.5 |
Defense T.Okada 1 INT, D.Hall 1 sack · Kicking J.Myers 2/2 FG (long 35)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Clean pockets
Seahawks take a sack on 7% of dropbacks (20th). Chiefs get home on 4% (31st). League average is 7%.
Deep left is open
Chiefs are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.62 EPA per attempt. Seahawks send 5% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Field goals, not touchdowns
Seahawks score a touchdown on 50% of red zone trips (27th). Chiefs allow 42% (4th).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Seahawks create explosive plays on 9% of snaps (18th). Chiefs give them up at 8% (9th).
The Chiefs lead the series 7–6 since 1999. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 7 | KC 3 at SEA 20 |
| 2022 · Wk 16 | SEA 10 at KC 24 |
| 2018 · Wk 16 | KC 31 at SEA 38 |
| 2014 · Wk 11 | SEA 20 at KC 24 |
| 2010 · Wk 12 | KC 42 at SEA 24 |
2026 records
| Chiefs | Seahawks | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5–2 | 4–4 |
| Division | 3–1 | 1–1 |
| Conference | 5–1 | 1–3 |
| Other conference | 0–1 | 3–1 |
| Home | 3–0 | 3–2 |
| Away | 2–2 | 1–2 |
| Last 5 | WWWLL | WLLWL |
| Streak | Lost 2 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 23.9 – 18.7 | 23.1 – 19.9 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Chiefs' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | SEA off | Favors SEA · Favors KC | KC def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.06#24 | -0.04#10 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 41%#26 | 40%#5 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.3#20 | 5.1#8 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#18 | 8%#9 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.02#18 | -0.01#13 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 7%#20 | 4%#31 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.21#30 | -0.13#8 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.7#22 | 3.4#1 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 37%#27 | 40%#15 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 50%#27 | 42%#4 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 181#4 | 121#3 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 30#29 | 66#25 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.1#30 | 10.0#31 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 28#19 | 42#26 | 32 | |
Seahawks: EPA per throw
Chiefs: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.