2026
Week 8 · Thursday 8:15 PM ET · Lambeau Field
vs
Packers offensevsPanthers defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Packers, 7 for Panthers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Packers won 27–19; their low point was 38% at Q2 12:24. The game turned for good at Q2 9:19: J.Love pass deep middle to C.Watson to CAR 26 for 53 yards (W.Lee). GB-C.Watson was injured during the play. CAR-W.Lee was injured during the… (42% → 54%).
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 9:19GBJ.Love pass deep middle to C.Watson to CAR 26 for 53 yards (W.Lee). GB-C.Watson was injured during the play. CAR-W.Lee was injured during the…turning point42% → 54%
- 2Q2 5:23GBB.Young pass short left intended for J.Coker INTERCEPTED by T.Hopper at CAR 44. T.Hopper to CAR 43 for 1 yard (J.Coker).63% → 74%
- 3Q1 7:02GBJ.Love pass short left to C.Watson to CAR 14 for 24 yards (Z.Wheatley).53% → 62%
- 4Q1 8:14GBJ.Love pass incomplete deep middle to M.Golden. PENALTY on CAR-W.Lee, Defensive Pass Interference, 17 yards, enforced at GB 43 - No Play.47% → 56%
- 5Q1 14:55CARC.Hubbard left tackle to GB 26 for 3 yards (L.Van Ness).43% → 52%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
B.Tremayne led the Panthers at +1.9 EPA (1 catches for 11). J.Love led the Packers at +11.7 EPA (30 of 41 for 288).
Panthers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Young100% | 23/41 | 209 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -7.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Hubbard92% | 22 | 96% | 81 | 1 | -2.1 |
| T.Etienne7% | 1 | 4% | 1 | -0.8 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.McMillan89% | 11 | 31% | 6 | 58 | -0.5 | |
| C.Hubbard92% | 8 | 23% | 7 | 38 | +2.2 | |
| J.Coker86% | 5 | 14% | 2 | 36 | 1 | -0.1 |
| T.Tremble60% | 3 | 9% | 1 | 19 | -0.3 | |
| J.III45% | 3 | 9% | 3 | 14 | -0.7 | |
| D.Waller62% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 11 | -0.9 | |
| M.Evans32% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 22 | +1.3 | |
| B.Tremayne26% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 11 | +1.9 |
Defense Z.Wheatley 1 INT · Kicking R.Fitzgerald 2/2 FG (long 50)
Packers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Love100% | 30/41 | 288 | 3 | 1 | +11.7 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Jacobs71% | 21 | 81% | 39 | 1 | -3.2 |
| M.Lloyd16% | 3 | 12% | 7 | -0.9 | |
| P.Strong13% | 1 | 4% | 2 | -0.3 | |
| S.Williams55% | 1 | 4% | 18 | +1.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Golden86% | 13 | 33% | 7 | 79 | 1 | +0.2 |
| C.Watson49% | 10 | 26% | 8 | 113 | +1.4 | |
| J.Jacobs71% | 6 | 15% | 6 | 13 | 1 | -1.2 |
| T.Kraft88% | 6 | 15% | 6 | 53 | 1 | +7.3 |
| S.Williams55% | 2 | 5% | 1 | 5 | -0.2 | |
| M.Lloyd16% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 9 | +0.9 | |
| J.Sturdivant42% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 16 | +1.1 |
Defense T.Hopper 1 sack and 1 INT, D.Wyatt 1 sack, B.Jr. 1 sack, L.Ness 1 sack
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Clean pockets
Packers take a sack on 4% of dropbacks (7th). Panthers get home on 4% (29th). League average is 7%.
Short middle is open
Panthers are worst against short middle throws, allowing +0.29 EPA per attempt. Packers send 20% of their throws there.
Checkdowns go nowhere
Panthers give up 27 yards a game to running backs (9th), against a league average of 32. Packers' running backs produce 28 (20th).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Packers average +0.00 EPA per play (17th). Panthers allow +0.03 (20th). League average is +0.00.
The Packers lead the series 10–7 since 1999. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 8 | CAR 19 at GB 27 |
| 2025 · Wk 9 | CAR 16 at GB 13 |
| 2023 · Wk 16 | GB 33 at CAR 30 |
| 2020 · Wk 15 | CAR 16 at GB 24 |
| 2019 · Wk 10 | CAR 16 at GB 24 |
2026 records
| Panthers | Packers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3–4 | 5–3 |
| Division | 1–1 | 1–2 |
| Conference | 3–3 | 4–3 |
| Other conference | 0–1 | 1–0 |
| Home | 1–2 | 3–1 |
| Away | 2–2 | 2–2 |
| Last 5 | LWWLL | WWWLW |
| Streak | Lost 2 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 25.4 – 27.6 | 21.4 – 20.5 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Panthers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | GB off | Favors GB · Favors CAR | CAR def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.00#17 | +0.03#20 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 40%#27 | 44%#22 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.5#16 | 5.4#19 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#19 | 8%#5 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.12#11 | +0.02#16 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 4%#7 | 4%#29 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.24#32 | -0.01#28 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.1#32 | 4.6#27 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 39%#24 | 47%#28 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 54%#23 | 80%#30 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 193#3 | 146#17 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 59#15 | 47#12 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.5#16 | 7.6#15 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 28#20 | 27#9 | 32 | |
Packers: EPA per throw
Panthers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.