2025
Week 1 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · MetLife Stadium
vs
Jets offensevsSteelers defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Jets, 18 for Steelers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Steelers won 34–32 from as low as 24% (Q3 3:46, down 26–17). The game turned for good at Q4 1:08: C.Boswell 60 yard field goal is GOOD (47% → 66%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 14:57, 25 points for the Steelers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 14:57PITC.Boswell kicks 64 yards from PIT 35 to NYJ 1. X.Gipson to NYJ 20 for 19 yards (K.Gainwell). FUMBLES (K.Gainwell), RECOVERED by PIT-B.Skowronek at…41% → 66%
- 2Q4 1:08PITC.Boswell 60 yard field goal is GOODturning point47% → 66%
- 3Q4 0:25PITJ.Fields pass incomplete short left to G.Wilson (J.Ramsey). NYJ-G.Wilson was injured during the play.80% → 98%
- 4Q4 7:06NYJJ.Fields right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ-J.Simpson was injured during the play.36% → 52%
- 5Q1 0:31NYJJ.Fields pass deep right to G.Wilson for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.34% → 47%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
A.Rodgers led the Steelers at +8.3 EPA (22 of 30 for 244). J.Fields led the Jets at +13.7 EPA (16 of 22 for 218).
Steelers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Rodgers100% | 22/30 | 244 | 4 | 4 | +10.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Warren45% | 11 | 55% | 37 | -0.1 | |
| K.Gainwell54% | 7 | 35% | 19 | -1.9 | |
| A.Rodgers100% | 1 | 5% | -1 | -1.9 | |
| K.Johnson4% | 1 | 5% | -2 | +0.8 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Metcalf95% | 7 | 24% | 4 | 83 | +5.6 | |
| J.Smith66% | 6 | 21% | 5 | 15 | 1 | +1.0 |
| C.III80% | 6 | 21% | 4 | 70 | 1 | +5.0 |
| K.Gainwell54% | 4 | 14% | 3 | 4 | -3.2 | |
| P.Freiermuth50% | 3 | 10% | 3 | 28 | +2.1 | |
| J.Warren45% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 22 | 1 | +3.0 |
| B.Skowronek18% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 22 | 1 | +2.9 |
Defense A.Highsmith 1 sack · Kicking C.Boswell 2/2 FG (long 60)
Jets
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Fields100% | 16/22 | 218 | 1 | 1 | +10.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Hall58% | 19 | 49% | 107 | +2.7 | |
| J.Fields100% | 12 | 31% | 48 | 2 | +3.6 |
| B.Allen31% | 6 | 15% | 9 | 1 | -2.0 |
| I.Davis12% | 2 | 5% | 18 | -0.8 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G.Wilson100% | 9 | 43% | 7 | 95 | 1 | +3.2 |
| B.Hall58% | 4 | 19% | 2 | 38 | +0.8 | |
| J.Reynolds97% | 3 | 14% | 2 | 18 | +0.9 | |
| T.Johnson52% | 2 | 10% | 2 | 31 | +2.8 | |
| J.Ruckert45% | 2 | 10% | 2 | 16 | +3.1 | |
| M.Taylor88% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 20 | +1.5 |
Defense W.IV 2 sacks, Q.Williams 1 sack, Q.Williams 1 sack · Kicking N.Folk 2/2 FG (long 51)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Steelers give up 8.3 targets a game to tight ends (28th), against a league average of 7.3. Jets' tight ends produce 6.2 (20th).
Deep middle is open
Steelers are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.12 EPA per attempt. Jets send 2% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Field goals, not touchdowns
Jets score a touchdown on 44% of red zone trips (31st). Steelers allow 54% (7th).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Jets gain 4.5 yards per play (29th). Steelers give up 5.6 (19th), with the league at 5.4.
The Steelers lead the series 10–6 since 1999 (they first met in 2000). They have won the last 2. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 1 | PIT 34 at NYJ 32 |
| 2024 · Wk 7 | NYJ 15 at PIT 37 |
| 2022 · Wk 4 | NYJ 24 at PIT 20 |
| 2019 · Wk 16 | PIT 10 at NYJ 16 |
| 2016 · Wk 5 | NYJ 13 at PIT 31 |
2025 records
| Steelers | Jets | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10–7 | 3–14 |
| Division | 4–2 | 0–6 |
| Conference | 8–4 | 2–10 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 1–4 |
| Home | 6–3 | 2–7 |
| Away | 4–4 | 1–7 |
| Last 5 | WWWLW | LLLLL |
| Streak | Won 1 | Lost 5 |
| Points a game | 23.4 – 22.8 | 17.6 – 29.6 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Steelers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | NYJ off | Favors NYJ · Favors PIT | PIT def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.13#29 | +0.02#18 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 40%#29 | 44%#15 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 4.5#29 | 5.6#19 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 8%#28 | 9%#15 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.19#28 | +0.03#17 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 11%#30 | 7%#10 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.11#28 | -0.01#26 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.3#15 | 4.3#19 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 35%#27 | 44%#28 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 44%#31 | 54%#7 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 92#31 | 167#29 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 35#31 | 64#28 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.2#20 | 8.3#28 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 35#12 | 30#16 | 32 | |
Jets: EPA per throw
Steelers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.