2025
Week 10 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · MetLife Stadium
vs
Browns offensevsJets defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Browns, 17 for Jets. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Jets won 27–20; their low point was 29% at Q1 6:34. The Browns had been 57% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q3 2:22: B.Hall left guard to CLE 46 for 6 yards (R.Jenkins) (47% → 54%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 14:21, 26 points for the Jets.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 14:21NYJJ.Fields pass short right to B.Hall for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN [G.Delpit].50% → 76%
- 2Q1 6:34NYJA.Szmyt kicks 64 yards from CLE 35 to NYJ 1. K.Nwangwu for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN.29% → 44%
- 3Q2 10:50CLEM.J.Fields pass deep middle intended for G.Wilson INTERCEPTED by R.Hickman at NYJ 37. R.Hickman to NYJ 22 for 15 yards (G.Wilson).33% → 46%
- 4Q1 6:01NYJC.Bojorquez punts 45 yards to NYJ 26 I.Williams for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CLE-T.Avery, Offensive Holding, declined.51% → 62%
- 5Q4 10:21NYJD.Gabriel sacked at NYJ 40 for -7 yards (W.McDonald).76% → 86%
- ★Q3 2:22NYJB.Hall left guard to CLE 46 for 6 yards (R.Jenkins).turning point47% → 54%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Jeudy led the Browns at +4.0 EPA (6 catches for 78). B.Hall led the Jets at +2.4 EPA (21 carries for 83).
Browns
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Gabriel100% | 17/32 | 167 | 2 | 6 | -7.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q.Judkins52% | 22 | 69% | 75 | -3.5 | |
| D.Gabriel100% | 5 | 16% | 54 | +4.9 | |
| M.Corley27% | 2 | 6% | 32 | +2.8 | |
| D.Sampson30% | 2 | 6% | -4 | -1.9 | |
| J.Ford19% | 1 | 3% | 1 | -0.6 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Jeudy96% | 12 | 38% | 6 | 78 | 1 | +4.0 |
| H.Jr.66% | 7 | 22% | 4 | 44 | -0.1 | |
| C.Tillman73% | 4 | 13% | 2 | 11 | -0.9 | |
| Q.Judkins52% | 3 | 9% | 2 | 10 | -0.4 | |
| D.Njoku68% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 21 | 1 | +2.3 |
| J.Ford19% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.7 | |
| J.Thrash30% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.6 | |
| M.Corley27% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.8 | |
| D.Sampson30% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 3 | -0.3 |
Defense R.Jr. 1 INT, M.Garrett 1 sack, C.Thomas 1 sack, M.Collins 0.5 sacks · Kicking A.Szmyt 2/2 FG (long 45)
Jets
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Fields100% | 6/11 | 54 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -10.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Hall71% | 21 | 64% | 83 | -2.4 | |
| J.Fields100% | 7 | 21% | 28 | -0.4 | |
| I.Davis29% | 3 | 9% | 10 | -1.3 | |
| J.III16% | 1 | 3% | -7 | -1.6 | |
| A.Smith67% | 1 | 3% | 13 | +1.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G.Wilson39% | 3 | 27% | 0 | 0 | -6.2 | |
| M.Taylor78% | 2 | 18% | 1 | 4 | -1.3 | |
| T.Johnson63% | 1 | 9% | 0 | 0 | -0.8 | |
| J.III16% | 1 | 9% | 1 | 3 | -1.2 | |
| J.Ruckert53% | 1 | 9% | 1 | 0 | -0.9 | |
| B.Hall71% | 1 | 9% | 1 | 42 | 1 | +4.9 |
| I.Williams43% | 1 | 9% | 1 | 4 | -0.1 | |
| I.Davis29% | 1 | 9% | 1 | 1 | -1.4 |
Defense W.IV 4 sacks, Q.Williams 1 sack, J.II 1 sack · Kicking N.Folk 2/2 FG (long 37)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Backs catch passes
Jets give up 35 yards a game to running backs (22nd), against a league average of 32. Browns' running backs produce 37 (7th).
Deep right is open
Jets are worst against deep right throws, allowing +0.80 EPA per attempt. Browns send 6% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Wideouts get blanketed
Jets give up 136 yards a game to wide receivers (14th), against a league average of 140. Browns' wide receivers produce 86 (32nd).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Browns average -0.19 EPA per play (31st). Jets allow +0.15 (31st). League average is +0.01.
The Jets lead the series 10–6 since 1999 (they first met in 2002). They have won the last 2. Oct 11, 2026, at MetLife Stadium: the Jets won 17–12. Geno Smith started at quarterback for the Jets and Deshaun Watson for the Browns; Aaron Glenn and Todd Monken coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 5 | CLE 12 at NYJ 17 |
| 2025 · Wk 10 | CLE 20 at NYJ 27 |
| 2023 · Wk 17 | NYJ 20 at CLE 37 |
| 2022 · Wk 2 | NYJ 31 at CLE 30 |
| 2020 · Wk 16 | CLE 16 at NYJ 23 |
2025 records
| Browns | Jets | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5–12 | 3–14 |
| Division | 2–4 | 0–6 |
| Conference | 4–8 | 2–10 |
| Other conference | 1–4 | 1–4 |
| Home | 3–6 | 2–7 |
| Away | 2–6 | 1–7 |
| Last 5 | LLLWW | LLLLL |
| Streak | Won 2 | Lost 5 |
| Points a game | 16.4 – 22.3 | 17.6 – 29.6 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Browns' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | CLE off | Favors CLE · Favors NYJ | NYJ def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.19#31 | +0.15#31 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 35%#32 | 46%#24 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 4.4#32 | 5.8#23 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 7%#30 | 12%#28 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.29#32 | +0.25#32 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 8%#25 | 5%#29 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.09#25 | -0.02#21 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.6#30 | 4.4#20 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 34%#29 | 39%#12 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 50%#26 | 68%#32 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 86#32 | 136#14 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 63#6 | 54#18 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 9.9#2 | 7.2#16 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 37#7 | 35#22 | 32 | |
Browns: EPA per throw
Jets: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.