2025
Week 10 · Monday 8:15 PM ET · Lambeau Field
Packers offensevsEagles defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 18 games for Packers, 18 for Eagles. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Eagles won 10–7; their low point was 35% at Q2 0:38. The Packers had been 54% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 13:33: D.J.Love pass deep right to C.Watson to PHI 13 for 22 yards (A.Mukuba). PENALTY on GB, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 35 - No Play (47% → 53%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 1:30, 23 points for the Eagles.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 1:30PHIJ.Jacobs right end to GB 40 for -4 yards (J.Phillips, R.Blankenship). FUMBLES (R.Blankenship), RECOVERED by PHI-R.Blankenship at GB 39. Penalty on…72% → 95%
- 2Q2 0:31PHIJ.Love sacked at PHI 36 for -9 yards (N.Dean). FUMBLES (N.Dean) [N.Dean], RECOVERED by PHI-J.Phillips at PHI 35.37% → 55%
- 3Q1 0:59GBJ.Hurts right tackle to GB 14 for 10 yards (X.McKinney, E.Cooper). FUMBLES (E.Cooper), RECOVERED by GB-K.Nixon at GB 14. K.Nixon pushed ob at GB…39% → 57%
- 4Q4 2:10GBJ.Love pass deep middle to C.Watson to GB 35 for 25 yards (A.Mukuba; R.Blankenship).25% → 40%
- 5Q4 0:02PHIB.McManus 64 yard field goal is No Good, Short87% → 100%
- ★Q4 13:33PHID.J.Love pass deep right to C.Watson to PHI 13 for 22 yards (A.Mukuba). PENALTY on GB, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 35 - No Play.turning point47% → 53%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
D.Smith led the Eagles at +5.1 EPA (4 catches for 69). D.Wicks led the Packers at +2.2 EPA (4 catches for 38).
Eagles
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Hurts100% | 15/26 | 183 | 1 | +8.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Barkley70% | 22 | 65% | 60 | -6.2 | |
| J.Hurts100% | 5 | 15% | 27 | -5.2 | |
| W.Shipley19% | 4 | 12% | 17 | -0.6 | |
| T.Bigsby13% | 3 | 9% | 7 | -1.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Smith92% | 7 | 30% | 4 | 69 | 1 | +5.1 |
| D.Goedert86% | 6 | 26% | 4 | 43 | +2.7 | |
| S.Barkley70% | 3 | 13% | 3 | 41 | +2.7 | |
| A.Brown78% | 3 | 13% | 2 | 13 | -0.5 | |
| W.Shipley19% | 2 | 9% | 2 | 17 | +1.5 | |
| G.Calcaterra40% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.6 | |
| J.Dotson30% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -1.5 |
Defense N.Dean 1 sack, N.Smith 1 sack, J.Hunt 1 sack · Kicking J.Elliott 1/1 FG (long 39)
Packers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Love100% | 20/36 | 176 | 3 | -8.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Jacobs74% | 21 | 78% | 74 | 1 | -4.3 |
| J.Love100% | 5 | 19% | 28 | +1.7 | |
| E.Wilson21% | 1 | 4% | 2 | -0.6 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Wicks65% | 8 | 24% | 4 | 38 | +2.2 | |
| J.Jacobs74% | 6 | 18% | 5 | 33 | +1.6 | |
| B.Melton | 5 | 15% | 2 | 28 | -2.0 | |
| R.Doubs62% | 4 | 12% | 1 | 5 | -3.1 | |
| C.Watson82% | 4 | 12% | 2 | 45 | +1.8 | |
| L.Musgrave76% | 3 | 9% | 3 | 23 | -0.4 | |
| S.Williams9% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 2 | -0.8 | |
| E.Wilson21% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 2 | -0.3 |
Defense no sacks or interceptions · Kicking B.McManus 0/1 FG
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Third downs favor Packers
Packers convert 48% of third downs (2nd). Eagles allow 43% (23rd).
Deep middle is open
Eagles are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.93 EPA per attempt. Packers send 6% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Eagles give up 6.2 targets a game to tight ends (6th), against a league average of 7.3. Packers' tight ends produce 5.6 (28th).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Packers gain 5.7 yards per play (9th). Eagles give up 5.1 (10th), with the league at 5.4.
The Eagles lead the series 11–7 since 1999 (they first met in 2000). They have won the last 4. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 10 | PHI 10 at GB 7 |
| 2024 · Wk 19 · playoffs | GB 10 at PHI 22 |
| 2024 · Wk 1 | GB 29 at PHI 34 |
| 2022 · Wk 12 | GB 33 at PHI 40 |
| 2020 · Wk 13 | PHI 16 at GB 30 |
2025 records
| Eagles | Packers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11–6 | 9–7–1 |
| Division | 3–3 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 8–4 | 7–4–1 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 2–3 |
| Home | 5–3 | 5–3 |
| Away | 6–3 | 4–4–1 |
| Last 5 | LWWWL | WLLLL |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Lost 4 |
| Points a game | 22.3 – 19.1 | 23.0 – 21.2 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Eagles' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | Favors GB · Favors PHI | NFL avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.12#3 | -0.07#9 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 47%#4 | 42%#10 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.7#9 | 5.1#10 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 12%#3 | 9%#18 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.24#1 | -0.11#8 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#8 | 7%#14 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.07#22 | -0.10#6 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.1#21 | 4.1#12 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 48%#2 | 43%#23 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 60%#12 | 55%#9 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 150#13 | 138#17 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 48#22 | 29#2 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.6#28 | 6.2#6 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 27#20 | 41#28 | 32 | |
Packers: EPA per throw
Eagles: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.