2025
Week 12 · Thursday 8:15 PM ET · NRG Stadium
vs
Texans offensevsBills defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 19 games for Texans, 19 for Bills. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Texans won 23–19 from as low as 14% (Q2 11:19, down 6–3). The Bills had been 71% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 0:28: J.Allen pass incomplete short right to K.Shakir (W.Anderson) (42% → 52%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 0:51, 48 points for the Bills.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 0:51BUFJ.Allen pass short right to J.Palmer to BUF 41 for 11 yards. Lateral to K.Shakir pushed ob at HOU 26 for 33 yards (J.Reed).11% → 58%
- 2Q4 0:24HOUJ.Allen pass short left intended for J.Palmer INTERCEPTED by C.Bullock at HOU 9. C.Bullock to HOU 9 for no gain (J.Palmer). Penalty on…60% → 96%
- 3Q2 1:56BUFK.Fairbairn kicks 62 yards from HOU 35 to BUF 3. R.Davis for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN.54% → 77%
- 4Q4 7:56BUFJ.Allen pass short right to K.Shakir pushed ob at HOU 20 for 44 yards (C.Bullock).21% → 42%
- 5Q2 0:09HOUD.Mills pass short left to J.Higgins for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: HOU-N.Collins has returned to the game. Penalty on BUF-C.Lewis,…29% → 44%
- ★Q4 0:28HOUJ.Allen pass incomplete short right to K.Shakir (W.Anderson).turning point42% → 52%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
T.Johnson led the Bills at +6.7 EPA (2 carries for 7). N.Collins led the Texans at +3.1 EPA (3 catches for 55).
Bills
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Allen100% | 24/34 | 253 | 2 | 8 | -7.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Cook55% | 17 | 71% | 116 | 1 | -0.5 |
| J.Allen100% | 5 | 21% | 20 | +3.4 | |
| T.Johnson35% | 2 | 8% | 7 | -0.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Shakir67% | 10 | 31% | 8 | 110 | -4.6 | |
| D.Knox86% | 4 | 13% | 3 | 17 | +0.1 | |
| J.Palmer50% | 4 | 13% | 2 | 21 | +1.7 | |
| T.Johnson35% | 3 | 9% | 3 | 45 | +7.0 | |
| E.Moore41% | 3 | 9% | 1 | -3 | -6.1 | |
| J.Cook55% | 3 | 9% | 3 | 13 | -0.9 | |
| G.Davis55% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 22 | +1.6 | |
| J.Hawes33% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 26 | +2.5 | |
| R.Gilliam17% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 2 | -0.4 |
Defense no sacks or interceptions · Kicking M.Prater 2/2 FG (long 44)
Texans
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Mills100% | 16/30 | 153 | 2 | -6.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W.Marks69% | 16 | 62% | 74 | +2.7 | |
| N.Chubb22% | 6 | 23% | 16 | -2.0 | |
| D.Mills100% | 2 | 8% | 4 | +1.1 | |
| X.Hutchinson36% | 1 | 4% | 9 | +0.9 | |
| J.Noel29% | 1 | 4% | 5 | +0.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Higgins58% | 9 | 32% | 4 | 38 | 1 | -0.7 |
| C.Kirk32% | 6 | 21% | 5 | 54 | 1 | +0.3 |
| D.Schultz81% | 4 | 14% | 1 | 8 | -1.4 | |
| N.Collins75% | 3 | 11% | 3 | 55 | +3.1 | |
| C.Stover34% | 2 | 7% | 0 | 0 | -1.3 | |
| J.Noel29% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 4 | -1.8 | |
| N.Chubb22% | 1 | 4% | 1 | -1 | -0.7 | |
| W.Marks69% | 1 | 4% | 1 | -5 | -1.2 |
Defense C.Bullock 2 INT, W.Jr. 2.5 sacks, D.Hunter 2 sacks, D.Barnett 1 sack · Kicking K.Fairbairn 3/3 FG (long 43)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Clean pockets
Texans take a sack on 5% of dropbacks (9th). Bills get home on 6% (20th). League average is 7%.
Deep middle is open
Bills are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.74 EPA per attempt. Texans send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Checkdowns go nowhere
Bills give up 28 yards a game to running backs (9th), against a league average of 32. Texans' running backs produce 21 (29th).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Texans create explosive plays on 8% of snaps (25th). Bills give them up at 11% (27th).
The Texans lead the series 8–6 since 1999 (they first met in 2002). Sep 13, 2026, at Reliant Stadium: the Bills won 36–31. C.J. Stroud started at quarterback for the Texans and Josh Allen for the Bills; DeMeco Ryans and Sean McDermott coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 1 | BUF 36 at HOU 31 |
| 2025 · Wk 12 | BUF 19 at HOU 23 |
| 2024 · Wk 5 | BUF 20 at HOU 23 |
| 2021 · Wk 4 | HOU 0 at BUF 40 |
| 2019 · Wk 18 · OT · playoffs | BUF 19 at HOU 22 |
2025 records
| Bills | Texans | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12–5 | 12–5 |
| Division | 4–2 | 5–1 |
| Conference | 9–3 | 10–2 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 2–3 |
| Home | 7–2 | 7–2 |
| Away | 5–3 | 5–3 |
| Last 5 | WWWLW | WWWWW |
| Streak | Won 1 | Won 9 |
| Points a game | 28.3 – 21.5 | 23.8 – 17.4 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Bills' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | HOU off | Favors HOU · Favors BUF | BUF def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.03#24 | -0.01#13 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 41%#28 | 43%#13 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.1#25 | 5.4#16 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 8%#25 | 11%#27 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.00#16 | -0.09#9 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#9 | 6%#20 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.11#30 | +0.04#29 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.8#28 | 4.9#30 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 40%#18 | 43%#24 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 46%#30 | 59%#19 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 160#8 | 122#7 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 51#16 | 27#1 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.7#11 | 4.6#1 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 21#29 | 28#9 | 32 | |
Texans: EPA per throw
Bills: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.