2025
Week 12 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Lambeau Field
vs
Packers offensevsVikings defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 18 games for Packers, 17 for Vikings. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Packers won 23–6 and were favored the whole way, never below 67%. The biggest single swing came at Q3 11:49, 13 points for the Packers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q3 11:49GBD.Whelan punts 42 yards to MIN 8 M.Price MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by GB-Z.Anderson at MIN 5.77% → 90%
- 2Q2 0:15MINW.Reichard 59 yard field goal is GOOD12% → 22%
- 3Q2 10:31MINJ.Mason up the middle to GB 18 for -1 yards (K.Enagbare).76% → 82%
- 4Q1 10:52GBJ.Love pass incomplete deep left to L.Musgrave. PENALTY on MIN-J.Metellus, Defensive Pass Interference, 24 yards, enforced at MIN 47 - No Play.73% → 78%
- 5Q2 4:28GBJ.Love pass deep middle to R.Doubs to MIN 19 for 18 yards (T.Jackson; J.Metellus) [J.Redmond].85% → 89%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
A.Jones led the Vikings at +0.2 EPA (9 carries for 41). J.Love led the Packers at +6.0 EPA (14 of 21 for 139).
Vikings
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.McCarthy100% | 12/19 | 87 | 2 | 5 | -16.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Jones66% | 9 | 45% | 41 | +0.7 | |
| J.Mason27% | 8 | 40% | 42 | -1.6 | |
| J.McCarthy100% | 2 | 10% | 10 | -0.4 | |
| T.Hockenson68% | 1 | 5% | 0 | -1.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Jefferson100% | 6 | 33% | 4 | 48 | -2.5 | |
| A.Jones66% | 4 | 22% | 3 | 16 | -0.5 | |
| T.Hockenson68% | 4 | 22% | 4 | 19 | -2.2 | |
| A.Thielen7% | 1 | 6% | 0 | 0 | -0.7 | |
| J.Oliver55% | 1 | 6% | 1 | 4 | -0.1 | |
| J.Nailor45% | 1 | 6% | 0 | 0 | -2.5 | |
| J.Addison98% | 1 | 6% | 0 | 0 | -0.7 |
Defense D.Turner 1 sack · Kicking W.Reichard 2/2 FG (long 59)
Packers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Love91% | 14/21 | 139 | 1 | +5.5 | ||
| M.Willis9% | 1/1 | 7 | +0.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E.Wilson56% | 28 | 67% | 107 | 2 | -2.6 |
| C.Brooks44% | 8 | 19% | 21 | -1.4 | |
| J.Love91% | 3 | 7% | 15 | +0.5 | |
| M.Willis9% | 2 | 5% | 3 | -2.2 | |
| S.Williams12% | 1 | 2% | 0 | -1.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Watson74% | 7 | 33% | 5 | 49 | +4.3 | |
| D.Wicks48% | 4 | 19% | 2 | 32 | +1.6 | |
| R.Doubs73% | 3 | 14% | 2 | 23 | +1.0 | |
| E.Wilson56% | 2 | 10% | 2 | 18 | +1.3 | |
| L.Musgrave38% | 2 | 10% | 1 | 7 | -0.4 | |
| J.FitzPatrick61% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 11 | +0.7 | |
| J.Whyle41% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 1 | -0.3 | |
| C.Brooks44% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 5 | +0.3 |
Defense I.McDuffie 0.5 sacks and 1 INT, M.Parsons 2 sacks, D.Wyatt 2 sacks, E.Williams 1 INT · Kicking B.McManus 3/3 FG (long 40)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Throw it
Packers gain +0.24 EPA per dropback (1st). Vikings allow -0.15 (2nd).
Deep middle is open
Vikings are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.35 EPA per attempt. Packers send 6% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Vikings give up 6.5 targets a game to tight ends (7th), against a league average of 7.3. Packers' tight ends produce 5.6 (28th).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Packers average +0.12 EPA per play (3rd). Vikings allow -0.10 (3rd). League average is +0.01.
The Packers lead the series 31–24–2 since 1999. The Vikings have won the last 2. Sep 13, 2026, at U.S. Bank Stadium: the Vikings won 39–22. Kyler Murray started at quarterback for the Vikings and Jordan Love for the Packers; Kevin O'Connell and Matt LaFleur coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 1 | GB 22 at MIN 39 |
| 2025 · Wk 18 | GB 3 at MIN 16 |
| 2025 · Wk 12 | MIN 6 at GB 23 |
| 2024 · Wk 17 | GB 25 at MIN 27 |
| 2024 · Wk 4 | MIN 31 at GB 29 |
2025 records
| Vikings | Packers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9–8 | 9–7–1 |
| Division | 4–2 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 7–5 | 7–4–1 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Home | 4–4 | 5–3 |
| Away | 5–4 | 4–4–1 |
| Last 5 | WWWWW | WLLLL |
| Streak | Won 5 | Lost 4 |
| Points a game | 20.2 – 19.6 | 23.0 – 21.2 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Vikings' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | GB off | Favors GB · Favors MIN | MIN def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.12#3 | -0.10#3 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 47%#4 | 41%#5 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.7#9 | 4.7#3 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 12%#3 | 9%#11 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.24#1 | -0.15#2 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#8 | 10%#2 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.07#22 | -0.08#13 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.1#21 | 3.8#6 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 48%#2 | 35%#2 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 60%#12 | 45%#3 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 150#13 | 116#2 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 48#22 | 42#4 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.6#28 | 6.5#7 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 27#20 | 19#1 | 32 | |
Packers: EPA per throw
Vikings: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.