2025
Week 15 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · Mercedes-Benz Superdome
vs
Saints offensevsPanthers defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Saints, 18 for Panthers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Saints won 20–17 from as low as 9% (Q4 4:45, down 17–10). The Panthers had been 58% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 0:52: T.Shough pass short right to A.Estime to NO 28 for 19 yards (L.Ransom; M.Jackson) (49% → 58%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 0:12, 18 points for the Saints.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 0:12NOT.Shough up the middle to CAR 44 for 4 yards (L.Ransom). NO-T.Shough was injured during the play. PENALTY on CAR-L.Ransom, Unnecessary Roughness,…56% → 74%
- 2Q4 2:33NOT.Shough pass short middle to C.Olave for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.23% → 40%
- 3Q4 0:06NOC.Smyth 47 yard field goal is GOOD Penalty on CAR-C.Smith-Wade, Defensive Offside, declined.76% → 92%
- 4Q2 1:18CARB.Young pass short right to T.McMillan to NO 21 for 21 yards (A.Taylor; K.McKinstry).61% → 74%
- 5Q4 1:04CARS.Martin punts 40 yards to NO 17, fair catch by D.Pettis. PENALTY on NO-J.Howden, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at NO 17.40% → 53%
- ★Q4 0:52NOT.Shough pass short right to A.Estime to NO 28 for 19 yards (L.Ransom; M.Jackson).turning point49% → 58%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
B.Young led the Panthers at +10.2 EPA (15 of 24 for 163). T.Shough led the Saints at +13.1 EPA (24 of 32 for 272).
Panthers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Young100% | 15/24 | 163 | 1 | 1 | +7.7 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Dowdle60% | 16 | 52% | 49 | 1 | +0.7 |
| C.Hubbard42% | 8 | 26% | 29 | -4.8 | |
| B.Young100% | 7 | 23% | 49 | +2.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Tremble49% | 4 | 20% | 2 | 13 | -0.5 | |
| J.Coker68% | 4 | 20% | 4 | 60 | 1 | +6.8 |
| T.McMillan84% | 4 | 20% | 2 | 25 | +1.3 | |
| X.Legette74% | 3 | 15% | 2 | 39 | +2.9 | |
| J.Sanders53% | 2 | 10% | 2 | 5 | -0.7 | |
| R.Dowdle60% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 5 | +0.0 | |
| C.Hubbard42% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 9 | +1.8 | |
| J.Jr.7% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 7 | -0.3 |
Defense D.Wonnum 2 sacks, C.Rozeboom 1 sack, T.Gipson 1 sack, B.III 0.5 sacks · Kicking R.Fitzgerald 1/1 FG (long 40)
Saints
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Shough99% | 24/32 | 272 | 1 | 5 | +8.6 | |
| S.Rattler1% | 0/1 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Shough99% | 8 | 32% | 32 | +4.5 | |
| D.Neal32% | 7 | 28% | 28 | 1 | -0.4 |
| E.Hull32% | 4 | 16% | 12 | -3.4 | |
| A.Estimé36% | 3 | 12% | 11 | -0.2 | |
| T.Hill22% | 2 | 8% | 2 | -0.8 | |
| M.Tipton80% | 1 | 4% | -4 | -2.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Olave84% | 9 | 29% | 6 | 85 | 1 | +3.9 |
| D.Vele55% | 6 | 19% | 5 | 69 | +9.0 | |
| K.Jr.38% | 5 | 16% | 3 | 33 | +0.5 | |
| J.Johnson61% | 4 | 13% | 4 | 30 | +3.2 | |
| A.Estimé36% | 3 | 10% | 3 | 39 | +1.2 | |
| M.Tipton80% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 5 | -0.6 | |
| J.Stoll14% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 7 | +0.3 | |
| D.Neal32% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 4 | -0.2 |
Defense C.Young 1 sack · Kicking C.Smyth 2/2 FG (long 47)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Panthers give up 61 yards a game to tight ends (25th), against a league average of 53. Saints' tight ends produce 60 (9th).
Deep left is open
Panthers are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.57 EPA per attempt. Saints send 9% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Field goals, not touchdowns
Saints score a touchdown on 43% of red zone trips (32nd). Panthers allow 57% (14th).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Saints average -0.09 EPA per play (27th). Panthers allow +0.07 (23rd). League average is +0.01.
The Saints lead the series 31–24 since 1999. They have won the last 2. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 15 | CAR 17 at NO 20 |
| 2025 · Wk 10 | NO 17 at CAR 7 |
| 2024 · Wk 9 | NO 22 at CAR 23 |
| 2024 · Wk 1 | CAR 10 at NO 47 |
| 2023 · Wk 14 | CAR 6 at NO 28 |
2025 records
| Panthers | Saints | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8–9 | 6–11 |
| Division | 3–3 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 6–6 | 4–8 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Home | 5–3 | 3–5 |
| Away | 3–6 | 3–6 |
| Last 5 | WLWLL | WWWWL |
| Streak | Lost 2 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 18.3 – 22.4 | 18.0 – 22.5 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Panthers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | NO off | Favors NO · Favors CAR | CAR def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.09#27 | +0.07#23 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 42%#25 | 45%#19 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.0#27 | 5.6#20 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 6%#32 | 9%#10 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.07#27 | +0.11#24 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 8%#22 | 5%#27 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.15#31 | +0.01#27 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.5#31 | 4.4#21 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 40%#19 | 47%#30 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 43%#32 | 57%#14 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 146#15 | 130#13 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 60#9 | 61#25 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.4#15 | 6.7#11 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 25#24 | 29#13 | 32 | |
Saints: EPA per throw
Panthers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.