2025
Week 16 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Bank of America Stadium
vs
Panthers offensevsBuccaneers defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 18 games for Panthers, 17 for Buccaneers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Panthers won 23–20 from as low as 16% (Q2 10:24, down 7–3). The Buccaneers had been 60% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 2:24: R.Fitzgerald 48 yard field goal is GOOD (50% → 65%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 0:49, 34 points for the Panthers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 0:49CARB.Mayfield pass short left intended for M.Evans INTERCEPTED by L.Ransom at CAR 30. L.Ransom to CAR 35 for 5 yards.61% → 95%
- 2Q4 3:16CARB.Young pass deep right to J.Coker pushed ob at TB 33 for 34 yards (B.Morrison). Penalty on TB-B.Morrison, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.47% → 65%
- 3Q2 0:12CARB.Young pass deep left to T.McMillan for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.35% → 51%
- 4Q4 2:24CARR.Fitzgerald 48 yard field goal is GOODturning point50% → 65%
- 5Q4 12:20CARB.Mayfield sacked at CAR 32 for -9 yards (D.Brown).44% → 57%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
B.Mayfield led the Buccaneers at +6.8 EPA (18 of 26 for 145). T.McMillan led the Panthers at +6.0 EPA (6 catches for 73).
Buccaneers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Mayfield100% | 18/26 | 145 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Irving62% | 19 | 58% | 71 | +0.8 | |
| R.White39% | 5 | 15% | 45 | +1.3 | |
| B.Mayfield100% | 4 | 12% | 49 | +3.9 | |
| S.Tucker8% | 4 | 12% | 3 | 1 | -2.0 |
| J.McMillan53% | 1 | 3% | 1 | -0.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Evans66% | 9 | 36% | 5 | 31 | 1 | -2.2 |
| C.Jr.64% | 6 | 24% | 5 | 30 | +2.7 | |
| J.McMillan53% | 3 | 12% | 2 | 15 | +1.2 | |
| R.White39% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 15 | +2.2 | |
| C.Otton94% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 15 | +0.7 | |
| E.Egbuka56% | 2 | 8% | 1 | 40 | +3.0 | |
| T.Johnson25% | 1 | 4% | 1 | -1 | -0.8 |
Defense L.David 1 sack, S.Dennis 1 sack · Kicking C.McLaughlin 2/2 FG (long 50)
Panthers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Young100% | 21/32 | 191 | 2 | 2 | +3.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Dowdle57% | 9 | 45% | 29 | -2.0 | |
| C.Hubbard41% | 6 | 30% | 27 | +1.1 | |
| B.Young100% | 4 | 20% | 20 | +0.8 | |
| J.Jr.22% | 1 | 5% | 25 | +1.6 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.McMillan87% | 10 | 32% | 6 | 73 | 1 | +6.0 |
| R.Dowdle57% | 6 | 19% | 4 | 14 | -2.0 | |
| J.Coker81% | 5 | 16% | 3 | 47 | +1.6 | |
| X.Legette65% | 3 | 10% | 1 | 12 | 0.0 | |
| M.Evans30% | 3 | 10% | 3 | 23 | +1.1 | |
| J.Sanders57% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 9 | 1 | +1.4 |
| C.Hubbard41% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 7 | -0.7 | |
| T.Tremble43% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 6 | +0.3 |
Defense L.Ransom 1 INT, C.Rozeboom 1 sack, D.Brown 1 sack · Kicking R.Fitzgerald 3/3 FG (long 48)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Backs catch passes
Buccaneers give up 51 yards a game to running backs (32nd), against a league average of 32. Panthers' running backs produce 31 (14th).
Deep middle is open
Buccaneers are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.01 EPA per attempt. Panthers send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Third downs favor Buccaneers
Panthers convert 37% of third downs (25th). Buccaneers allow 40% (13th).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Panthers gain 5.1 yards per play (26th). Buccaneers give up 5.8 (24th), with the league at 5.4.
The Panthers lead the series 25–24 since 1999 (they first met in 2002). The Buccaneers have won the last 2. Oct 25, 2026, at Bank of America Stadium: the Buccaneers won 43–13. Bryce Young started at quarterback for the Panthers and Baker Mayfield for the Buccaneers; Dave Canales and Todd Bowles coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 7 | TB 43 at CAR 13 |
| 2025 · Wk 18 | CAR 14 at TB 16 |
| 2025 · Wk 16 | TB 20 at CAR 23 |
| 2024 · Wk 17 | CAR 14 at TB 48 |
| 2024 · Wk 13 · OT | TB 26 at CAR 23 |
2025 records
| Buccaneers | Panthers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8–9 | 8–9 |
| Division | 3–3 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 6–6 | 6–6 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Home | 4–4 | 5–3 |
| Away | 4–5 | 3–6 |
| Last 5 | LLLLW | WLWLL |
| Streak | Won 1 | Lost 2 |
| Points a game | 22.4 – 24.2 | 18.3 – 22.4 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Buccaneers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | CAR off | Favors CAR · Favors TB | TB def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.04#26 | +0.02#17 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 43%#18 | 45%#20 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.1#26 | 5.8#24 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#24 | 10%#19 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.06#25 | +0.07#20 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 6%#13 | 6%#21 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.05#17 | -0.11#5 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.3#14 | 4.1#15 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 37%#25 | 40%#13 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 57%#20 | 65%#27 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 131#19 | 148#22 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 37#30 | 57#22 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.8#27 | 7.5#21 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 31#14 | 51#32 | 32 | |
Panthers: EPA per throw
Buccaneers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.