2025
Week 16 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · AT&T Stadium
vs
Cowboys offensevsChargers defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Cowboys, 18 for Chargers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Chargers won 34–17; their low point was 31% at Q1 8:51. The Cowboys had been 54% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q2 1:53: J.Herbert pass short right to K.Allen to DAL 18 for 9 yards (T.Diggs) (49% → 57%). The biggest single swing came at Q3 14:13, 14 points for the Chargers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q3 14:13LACJ.Herbert pass deep left to Q.Johnston to DAL 24 for 50 yards (M.Hooker).60% → 75%
- 2Q3 2:18LACH.Luepke up the middle to LAC 16 for no gain (D.Hand; J.Caldwell).65% → 76%
- 3Q2 9:50LACJ.Herbert pass deep right to L.McConkey for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.51% → 61%
- 4Q2 8:14DALD.Prescott pass deep left to G.Pickens for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.49% → 59%
- 5Q1 11:59DALD.Prescott pass deep left to G.Pickens to LAC 11 for 28 yards (C.Hart). DAL-C.Beebe was injured during the play.56% → 66%
- ★Q2 1:53LACJ.Herbert pass short right to K.Allen to DAL 18 for 9 yards (T.Diggs).turning point49% → 57%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Herbert led the Chargers at +23.1 EPA (23 of 29 for 300). D.Prescott led the Cowboys at +12.6 EPA (21 of 30 for 244).
Chargers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Herbert100% | 23/29 | 300 | 2 | +23.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O.Hampton55% | 16 | 48% | 85 | 1 | +2.3 |
| J.Herbert100% | 8 | 24% | 42 | 1 | -0.6 |
| K.Vidal33% | 5 | 15% | 11 | -1.1 | |
| H.Haskins9% | 4 | 12% | 14 | 0.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L.McConkey75% | 6 | 21% | 4 | 43 | 1 | +1.5 |
| K.Allen47% | 5 | 18% | 5 | 44 | +5.3 | |
| Q.Johnston58% | 5 | 18% | 4 | 104 | 1 | +8.7 |
| T.Harris45% | 5 | 18% | 4 | 54 | +4.3 | |
| W.Dissly22% | 3 | 11% | 3 | 28 | +2.1 | |
| O.Hampton55% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 10 | +0.4 | |
| K.Lambert-Smith22% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 10 | +1.8 | |
| O.II59% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 7 | +0.1 |
Defense T.Tuipulotu 1 sack · Kicking C.Dicker 2/2 FG (long 37)
Cowboys
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Prescott91% | 21/30 | 244 | 2 | 1 | +12.8 | |
| J.III9% | 2/2 | 11 | +0.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Williams57% | 9 | 39% | 34 | -0.4 | |
| M.Davis34% | 8 | 35% | 23 | -2.1 | |
| D.Prescott91% | 2 | 9% | 14 | -0.2 | |
| K.Turpin31% | 2 | 9% | 13 | +0.7 | |
| H.Luepke14% | 1 | 4% | 0 | -4.3 | |
| J.III9% | 1 | 4% | 7 | -5.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G.Pickens88% | 9 | 28% | 7 | 130 | 1 | +10.5 |
| C.Lamb86% | 7 | 22% | 6 | 51 | +2.0 | |
| K.Turpin31% | 4 | 13% | 2 | 14 | -1.9 | |
| J.Ferguson69% | 4 | 13% | 3 | 19 | +0.8 | |
| J.Williams57% | 3 | 9% | 2 | 9 | -0.8 | |
| H.Luepke14% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 14 | +1.8 | |
| R.Flournoy40% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 18 | 1 | +4.1 |
| J.Mingo36% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -2.8 |
Defense no sacks or interceptions · Kicking B.Aubrey 1/1 FG (long 33)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Ground game edge
Cowboys average 4.6 yards per carry (6th). Chargers allow 4.1 (14th).
Deep left is open
Chargers are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.49 EPA per attempt. Cowboys send 7% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Checkdowns go nowhere
Chargers give up 29 yards a game to running backs (15th), against a league average of 32. Cowboys' running backs produce 18 (32nd).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Cowboys create explosive plays on 9% of snaps (17th). Chargers give them up at 9% (17th).
The Chargers lead the series 5–3 since 1999 (they first met in 2001). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 16 | LAC 34 at DAL 17 |
| 2023 · Wk 6 | DAL 20 at LAC 17 |
| 2021 · Wk 2 | DAL 20 at LAC 17 |
| 2017 · Wk 12 | LAC 28 at DAL 6 |
| 2013 · Wk 4 | DAL 21 at LAC 30 |
2025 records
| Chargers | Cowboys | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11–6 | 7–9–1 |
| Division | 5–1 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 8–4 | 4–7–1 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 3–2 |
| Home | 6–3 | 4–3–1 |
| Away | 5–3 | 3–6 |
| Last 5 | WWWLL | LLLWL |
| Streak | Lost 2 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 21.6 – 20.0 | 27.7 – 30.1 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Chargers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | DAL off | Favors DAL · Favors LAC | LAC def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.10#4 | -0.08#7 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 47%#5 | 41%#6 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.1#2 | 5.2#12 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#17 | 9%#17 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.16#6 | -0.09#10 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#6 | 9%#5 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | 0.00#8 | -0.12#3 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.6#6 | 4.1#14 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 43%#8 | 35%#3 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 58%#18 | 44%#1 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 212#1 | 127#8 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 48#20 | 43#6 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.1#10 | 5.7#2 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 18#32 | 29#15 | 32 | |
Cowboys: EPA per throw
Chargers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.