2025
Week 17 · Thursday 1:00 PM ET · FedExField
vs
Commanders offensevsCowboys defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Commanders, 17 for Cowboys. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Cowboys won 30–23 and were favored the whole way, never below 72%. The biggest single swing came at Q1 13:12, 7 points for the Commanders.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 13:12WASD.Prescott pass incomplete short right to J.Williams (J.Jones).20% → 27%
- 2Q3 9:44WASJ.Croskey-Merritt right tackle for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN.3% → 10%
- 3Q1 11:03DALD.Prescott pass short left to G.Pickens pushed ob at WAS 7 for 19 yards (W.Harris).78% → 84%
- 4Q3 2:24WASJ.Johnson pass short right to C.Moore to DAL 34 for 15 yards (S.Revel). PENALTY on DAL-S.Revel, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at DAL 34.8% → 14%
- 5Q1 7:45WASJ.Johnson pass short right to D.Samuel pushed ob at DAL 6 for 41 yards (D.Wilson; S.Revel).17% → 22%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
D.Prescott led the Cowboys at +12.3 EPA (19 of 37 for 307). J.Croskey-Merritt led the Commanders at +5.0 EPA (11 carries for 105).
Cowboys
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Prescott100% | 19/37 | 307 | 2 | 6 | +11.7 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Davis50% | 20 | 45% | 103 | -0.3 | |
| J.Williams27% | 13 | 30% | 54 | 1 | +5.2 |
| H.Luepke34% | 7 | 16% | 30 | +1.3 | |
| D.Prescott100% | 4 | 9% | 24 | +0.6 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Lamb87% | 10 | 28% | 5 | 46 | -1.2 | |
| J.Tolbert62% | 8 | 22% | 4 | 31 | +2.2 | |
| G.Pickens87% | 5 | 14% | 4 | 78 | +7.0 | |
| J.Williams27% | 2 | 6% | 0 | 0 | -2.7 | |
| M.Davis50% | 2 | 6% | 0 | 0 | -0.7 | |
| J.Ferguson29% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 6 | 1 | +1.4 |
| L.Schoonmaker46% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 15 | +1.1 | |
| B.Spann-Ford52% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 31 | +1.9 | |
| K.Turpin17% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 86 | 1 | +8.0 |
| H.Luepke34% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 14 | +0.1 | |
| J.Mingo9% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.8 |
Defense J.Clowney 1.5 sacks, R.Steward 0.5 sacks · Kicking B.Aubrey 3/4 FG (long 52)
Commanders
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Johnson98% | 15/23 | 198 | 1 | +3.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Croskey-Merritt64% | 11 | 69% | 105 | 2 | +5.0 |
| J.Johnson98% | 2 | 13% | 10 | -0.1 | |
| D.Sr.82% | 2 | 13% | 25 | +0.8 | |
| J.McNichols41% | 1 | 6% | -2 | -2.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.McLaurin86% | 7 | 33% | 5 | 63 | +3.7 | |
| D.Sr.82% | 4 | 19% | 2 | 68 | +2.7 | |
| B.Sinnott61% | 4 | 19% | 3 | 29 | -0.2 | |
| J.McNichols41% | 3 | 14% | 3 | 12 | -0.5 | |
| T.Burks91% | 2 | 10% | 1 | 11 | -0.1 | |
| C.Moore18% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 15 | +2.4 |
Defense J.Newton 3 sacks, V.Miller 1 sack, R.Barber 1 sack, B.Wagner 0.5 sacks · Kicking J.Moody 3/3 FG (long 51)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Red zone touchdowns
Commanders score a touchdown on 67% of red zone trips (6th). Cowboys allow 67% (29th).
Deep middle is open
Cowboys are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.41 EPA per attempt. Commanders send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Cowboys give up 6.8 targets a game to tight ends (12th), against a league average of 7.3. Commanders' tight ends produce 6.1 (22nd).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Commanders average +0.01 EPA per play (17th). Cowboys allow +0.17 (32nd). League average is +0.01.
The Cowboys lead the series 39–16 since 1999. They have won the last 3. Sep 20, 2026, at AT&T Stadium: the Cowboys won 37–20. Dak Prescott started at quarterback for the Cowboys and Jayden Daniels for the Commanders; Brian Schottenheimer and Dan Quinn coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 2 | WAS 20 at DAL 37 |
| 2025 · Wk 17 | DAL 30 at WAS 23 |
| 2025 · Wk 7 | WAS 22 at DAL 44 |
| 2024 · Wk 18 | WAS 23 at DAL 19 |
| 2024 · Wk 12 | DAL 34 at WAS 26 |
2025 records
| Cowboys | Commanders | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7–9–1 | 5–12 |
| Division | 4–2 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 4–7–1 | 3–9 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 2–3 |
| Home | 4–3–1 | 2–6 |
| Away | 3–6 | 3–6 |
| Last 5 | LLLWL | LWLLW |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 27.7 – 30.1 | 20.9 – 26.5 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Cowboys' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | WAS off | Favors WAS · Favors DAL | DAL def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.01#17 | +0.17#32 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 46%#9 | 49%#32 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.6#12 | 6.3#31 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#11 | 12%#31 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.01#17 | +0.22#31 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 7%#20 | 6%#24 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.04#11 | +0.05#30 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.5#9 | 4.7#27 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 39%#22 | 48%#32 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 67%#6 | 67%#29 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 133#18 | 171#32 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 43#24 | 52#15 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.1#22 | 6.8#12 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 20#31 | 43#31 | 32 | |
Commanders: EPA per throw
Cowboys: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.