2025
Week 18 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · New Era Field
vs
Bills offensevsJets defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 19 games for Bills, 17 for Jets. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Bills won 35–8 and were favored the whole way, never below 81%. The biggest single swing came at Q1 15:00, 4 points for the Jets.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 15:00NYJJ.Cook right tackle to BUF 30 for 10 yards (J.Taylor; T.Brown).14% → 18%
- 2Q1 13:41BUFM.Trubisky pass short left to D.Knox to BUF 42 for 7 yards (K.Smith).82% → 86%
- 3Q1 11:03BUFR.Davis right end pushed ob at NYJ 30 for 17 yards (M.Moore).81% → 85%
- 4Q1 10:25BUFR.Davis right guard to NYJ 21 for 9 yards (M.Moore; J.Sherwood).85% → 88%
- 5Q2 14:52BUFM.Trubisky pass short left to K.Latu to NYJ 27 for 7 yards (E.Watts).91% → 94%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
Q.Skinner led the Jets at +2.3 EPA (1 catches for 10). M.Trubisky led the Bills at +19.6 EPA (22 of 29 for 259).
Jets
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Cook100% | 11/22 | 60 | 1 | 1 | -6.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Herbert67% | 12 | 52% | 42 | -1.3 | |
| K.Nwangwu33% | 7 | 30% | 18 | -3.4 | |
| B.Cook100% | 3 | 13% | 7 | -0.5 | |
| A.Smith33% | 1 | 4% | 2 | -0.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I.Williams52% | 7 | 32% | 5 | 24 | -1.3 | |
| J.III71% | 4 | 18% | 3 | 20 | +0.8 | |
| A.Mitchell52% | 3 | 14% | 0 | 0 | -2.4 | |
| A.Beck25% | 2 | 9% | 1 | 2 | 1 | +0.3 |
| K.Herbert67% | 2 | 9% | 1 | 4 | -3.2 | |
| A.Smith33% | 2 | 9% | 0 | 0 | -1.0 | |
| K.Nwangwu33% | 1 | 5% | 0 | 0 | -0.9 | |
| Q.Skinner33% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 10 | +2.3 |
Defense no sacks or interceptions
Bills
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Trubisky99% | 22/29 | 259 | 4 | +22.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Davis64% | 21 | 49% | 151 | +5.7 | |
| T.Johnson33% | 13 | 30% | 36 | 1 | -4.5 |
| M.Trubisky99% | 5 | 12% | 5 | -2.9 | |
| R.Gilliam20% | 2 | 5% | 4 | -0.3 | |
| J.Cook3% | 2 | 5% | 15 | +0.8 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G.Davis93% | 7 | 25% | 5 | 41 | 1 | +5.5 |
| K.Coleman81% | 4 | 14% | 2 | 49 | +1.9 | |
| J.Palmer84% | 3 | 11% | 1 | 1 | -1.9 | |
| D.Kincaid13% | 3 | 11% | 3 | 48 | +2.4 | |
| K.Latu68% | 3 | 11% | 3 | 31 | +5.8 | |
| T.Johnson33% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 20 | 1 | +4.9 |
| D.Knox5% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 24 | 1 | +2.8 |
| R.Davis64% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 23 | 1 | +2.3 |
| R.Gilliam20% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 22 | +1.3 | |
| J.Hawes29% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 0 | -0.7 |
Defense T.Sanders 1 sack
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Throw it
Bills gain +0.17 EPA per dropback (3rd). Jets allow +0.25 (32nd).
Deep right is open
Jets are worst against deep right throws, allowing +0.80 EPA per attempt. Bills send 7% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Wideouts get blanketed
Jets give up 136 yards a game to wide receivers (14th), against a league average of 140. Bills' wide receivers produce 130 (20th).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Bills gain 6.0 yards per play (5th). Jets give up 5.8 (23rd), with the league at 5.4.
The Bills lead the series 29–25 since 1999. They have won the last 5. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 18 | NYJ 8 at BUF 35 |
| 2025 · Wk 2 | BUF 30 at NYJ 10 |
| 2024 · Wk 17 | NYJ 14 at BUF 40 |
| 2024 · Wk 6 | BUF 23 at NYJ 20 |
| 2023 · Wk 11 | NYJ 6 at BUF 32 |
2025 records
| Jets | Bills | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3–14 | 12–5 |
| Division | 0–6 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 2–10 | 9–3 |
| Other conference | 1–4 | 3–2 |
| Home | 2–7 | 7–2 |
| Away | 1–7 | 5–3 |
| Last 5 | LLLLL | WWWLW |
| Streak | Lost 5 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 17.6 – 29.6 | 28.3 – 21.5 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Jets' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | BUF off | Favors BUF · Favors NYJ | NYJ def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.14#2 | +0.15#31 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 49%#2 | 46%#24 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.0#5 | 5.8#23 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 12%#1 | 12%#28 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.17#3 | +0.25#32 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 7%#18 | 5%#29 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.07#1 | -0.02#21 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.8#4 | 4.4#20 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 48%#3 | 39%#12 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 68%#4 | 68%#32 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 130#20 | 136#14 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 73#2 | 54#18 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.4#16 | 7.2#16 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 36#11 | 35#22 | 32 | |
Bills: EPA per throw
Jets: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.